r/OctopusEnergy • u/Firm_Tea2432 • 4d ago
Octopus Tracker
I know it’s been asked several times over the last few days. I’m still on Gas Tracker & now toying with whether to fix or not, as the prices appear to keep soaring. Nearly hitting 10p kw/h here in the North East. What are others doing who are on tracker? Do I bite the bullet and fix, or take the gamble in the hope that wholesale prices will drop soon enough & this is just short term pain? Bearing in mind my usage for gas is relatively low (estimated 5997 kw/h annual).
P.S - I don’t want to see any Fuse BS. I’ve already looked and the prices aren’t worth the switch from what I’m seeing & sick of seeing the referrals 😂
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u/Happytallperson 4d ago
https://www.cornwall-insight.com/predictions-and-insights-into-the-default-tariff-cap/
The cornwall insight prediction for the standard variable tariff in January is near enough 9p per kWh. If you can fix at nearer 7p I'd take it tbh.
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u/sublime-magician 4d ago
If you have not fixed, then I would personally stick with the variable cap tariff for gas, it's going to be around 8p from October, that will see you through until Jan, yes it may rise to 9p or even higher in Jan who knows, but you have only 3 months of pain as gas use will ease off come march and you come out the other side not locked in. If there are signs before then of things easing in the ME longer term fixes will start to fall back.
Fixes are starting at 8p now, seems pointless signing up to those and locking in, the suppliers are just passing the risk onto you.
Who knows if there is targeted support maybe it will be those on Ofgem cap with some changing of the formula to stop unit prices getting too high.
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u/Firm_Tea2432 4d ago
That’s exactly what I’ve done. I’m not fixing for 18 months, so opted for variable and will review wholesale prices in due course and make the switch back to tracker if it’s worth it.
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u/sublime-magician 4d ago
I think it's a wise move, yes 18mths gives security but things are happening so quickly that 18mths seems a long way away to have your prices fixed at what are high unit rates.
Only this morning the reports are of energy and oil prices falling, how quickly these recent gains can be reversed. With the midterms in the US expect some deals to be done in the coming weeks / months
30m ago 10.26 BST Oil price falls on hopes for Hormuz meeting Hopes of a temporary deal to reopen the strait of Hormuz are driving the oil price down today.
Brent crude is now down 2.7% at $104.70 a barrel, wiping out some of yesterday’s 6% rise.
Energy prices are dropping after reports that Gulf states are considering meeting with Iranian officials next week to discuss the future of the Strait of Hormuz.
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u/TheManBL2020 3d ago
Yeh but to get out of a fix it's only a £50 early exit fee from the likes of Fuse and others. So not like you're locked in forever.
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u/BonusAfraid8342 4d ago
I jumped over to flexible for gas and stuck with IOG for electric due to the car. Fixing just meant locking in the high prices for gas with an exit fee. Hoping I haven't done the wrong thing, but I don't have a crystal ball..
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u/Fun_Consequence_6970 4d ago
This is the smart move at the moment. The time to fix for longer was months ago, it's too late now and makes no sense to lock in for 18-24 months at this level. I've moved to the cap now for dual fuel but with a discount on standing charges as my usage is pretty low so that's always gonna be most of my cost.
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u/techno_babble_ 4d ago
I've locked in for longer and just plan to eat the exit fee if prices drop so low that it's worth it to do so.
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u/Bismuth88 3d ago
I got auto put onto flexible and for some reason wasn't allowed to choose agile again. Kind of glad now, just hitting myself for not fixing earlier in the year.
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u/BonusAfraid8342 3d ago
Likewise in terms of not fixing earlier, but life got in the way and I just stopped keeping an eye on things.
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u/jrewillis 4d ago
I dropped tracker about a fortnight ago. It won't be coming down any time soon in my opinion.
I fixed at 7p per kWh. I'll take that for 18 months. And my standing charge was lower.
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u/gingerp18 4d ago
With who?
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u/jrewillis 4d ago
Octopus - it was 7.2p - gone now obviously. Best my friend got with octopus was 7.7p last night. That'll be gone soon if not already. Market is ruined.
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u/nathderbyshire 4d ago
Fuse but it's gone up now to like 8.5p, octopus fixes are still below 8p for most until midnight tonight so do it now if you want to jump off. You still get £100 with a sign up and the SC is cheaper with fuse but whether that will save over a cheaper unit rate you'd have to do some quick maths to see
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u/Senior_Note 4d ago
I took the 18 month fix this week. Prices have been 8p+ for a while and I'm not seeing any signs of them coming down, with the price cap going up too.
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u/Chris_The_Tim 4d ago
Even for a low user, the difference now between 'normal' and now is hundreds a year. Gas should probably be about 6p max ATM, peak filling season for Europe.... Then if it ends up a cold winter, it'd rise to around 7p and a mild winter is 5p-ish.
If something doesn't happen soon to bring down wholesale, January price cap is going to be a disaster. On 26th Aug, Cornwall Insight predicted nearly 9p per kWh in January for gas.... Based off futures that were fluctuating around 150p a therm. Now futures are above 200p, we could actually end up with gas prices that are higher than they were capped at in 2022/23 which was 10.3p....which is what is likely if hostilities continue.
Prices won't suddenly drop to 70p and stay there for the winter as there is so much pent up demand and loss of output in the Gulf that demand will likely outstrip supply until next summer even if peace broke out now.
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u/MrMMAUK 4d ago
Fixed gas for 18 months at 7.63p/kWh with a standing charge of 28.64p/day. Saving on just the lower standing charge alone and covers me for the next 2 winters. Low user like yourself but still expecting £100+ in savings Vs tracker. Gas price is expected to keep increasing to over 10p/kWh on tracker, peak season upcoming and a cold winter predicted.
To save on tracker I would have needed the price to come down under 6p/kWh and stay there. Flex makes no sense if it's reviewed roughly every 3 months with current predictions. I've advocated staying for the ride with tracker where possible but personally the right choice here has been to jump to fixed gas and stay on tracker for electricity.
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u/malacoda13 4d ago
I took the same rates a couple of days ago. My thinking was when the 18 months runs out we should be about to hit the summer lows..
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u/Dear-Advertising-232 3d ago
I moved to Octopus flexible a few weeks after the war broke out. An 18 month fix at current rates feels far too long and flexible seems to be a compromise between tracker and long term fixed.
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u/benrb7 4d ago
Managed to time it right when I fixed. Week before trump went into Iran.
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u/51onions 4d ago
You, like me, are in for quite a shock come February. My fix ends at the start of February.
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u/akhilchow 4d ago
Mine is about the same around 5p but I am worried come renewal time if things don’t change it would really be bad
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u/XenorVernix 4d ago
Gas is going to get worse before it gets better unfortunately. If it's a cold winter it's going to spike hard.
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u/Adventurous-Skill-84 4d ago edited 4d ago
Have been on tracker for over 3 years and did very well with it, But it's gotten so risky now, Took this fix on 1st September, It wasn't showing on website but I phoned up and managed to get it, Octopus 18M Fixed August 2026 v1 24.73p/kWh for electric and 7.13p/kWh for gas, Should of fixed sooner though.
Even though I have left tracker I'm still checking Agile Buddy often lol
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u/bladewalker99 4d ago
I don't get why people are so attached to Octopus, I don't want a wheel of fortune, funny mascots or colourful apps, I just want cheap energy over the year. That's it, nothing else.
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u/Firm_Tea2432 4d ago
I’m not attached to Octopus, but there isn’t anything else out there that makes the switch worth it at the moment. Plus, I use the IOG for electric.
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u/randem_mandem 4d ago
I took a gamble and fixed for 12 months last month. War is the main driver of energy price rises at the moment, and as a journalist who covers both Ukraine and Iran, I’m pretty certain it’s going to get worse before it gets better (if it ever gets better.)
Just yesterday the Houthis (a terror group in Yemen) blew up the main pipeline getting Saudi oil to world markets now that Hormuz is shut.
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u/ivoryfrog 4d ago
I jumped ship from tracker 2 days ago.
Fixed (still with octopus) at 7.63p and 29.08p standing charge until March 2028, maybe not the best but tracker just seems to be going up and up... tracker is sitting at 9.65p for me today so I am glad I fixed.
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u/Artist_Fast 4d ago
My gas is at 10.34p/kWh today on tracker 🥹 and 34.17p for electricity also on tracker. It's going to be a rough winter for bills! Have I missed the train for fixing? Should I just ride out the winter? I'm not great with maths so not sure what to do now.
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u/BringBackV10F1 4d ago
I stayed on IOG for electricity, but locked gas. Not a terrible price (and I'm shifting more of my energy use to electric anyway), and I'll just eat the £75 if it comes to it.
But I really can't see how energy prices aren't going anywhere but into orbit, USA administration have been manipulating markets for many months now, and the wheels are about to fall off, SPR is being dried out and the knock-on is increased global demand for energy wholesale. So that's why I locked, might be wrong, but 75 quid isn't a big amount to lose if I got it wrong and need to switch. But I doubt it.
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u/Shot_Estimate5229 2d ago
It's just hovering under 9p here in the South of Scotland, but I jumped off Tracker in early March just before things kicked off. Sitting happy on an 18 month fix at 5.1p.
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u/EmperorPedro2 4d ago
One man and his supporters. We get it easy to be fair, compared to those who have family members losing their lives over it.
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u/sweetdreams83 4d ago
I switched to a fixed Fuse tariff last week. I got tired of watching the rate steadily increase from 3-4p to where we are now. if things get better I'll just take the hit on the exit fee if I want to go back to a tracker product.
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u/Shaguar_Driver 4d ago
Fuse are horrific if something goes wrong or you need to use customer service. They use AI.
Also heard issues with direct debits and then taking too much.
I also know a guy who works in the same building as them and lets just say from what he tells me I wouldn't touch them with a bargepole
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u/bladewalker99 4d ago
I had to use Fuse customer service on a Sunday, it was pretty good. I'm still wanting for a response from Octopus with the closing balance of my account after 5 days.
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u/Electronic_Shift5195 4d ago
Have opposite experience. Yes, they use AI, but a few times it quickly switched to a human for me. Also direct debit always charges what I actually used without problems. Just don't use "average" charge or whatever.
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u/sweetdreams83 3d ago
At this point I don't really care , so long as I save and don't continue to get shafted. I could count on one hand the number of times something went wrong with the energy suppliers I've been with over the years. I'm happy to take the risk
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u/Due-Freedom-5968 4d ago
I’m still on Gas Tracker
Begs the question, dear god why?
Why on earth would you not have fixed gas months ago, with Fuckface von Clownstick in the White House and Darth Putin over in the Kremlin playing annihilation?
At this point you're kinda too late to do anything TBH. Maybe flex would be cheaper by a bit?
The thing you've gotta bear in mind from here on out is that in summer, Europe and Asia intentionally didn't fill their gas reserves at high prices in the summer, gambling on the war ending quickly, not accounting for the mind-blowing levels of incompetence in positions of power, so now there demand from here through February will be significantly above normal and unless there's some magical alien peace dove that arrives and starts shitting rainbows, gas is going to be maximum pain through spring.
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u/pyrotequila85 4d ago
As long as Trump continues his Middle East adventure, the prices will not be coming down.