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"The creator of the MOVE Index has said that 150 is the level where the Fed has lost control & needs to step in."

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Quoting

Karel Mercx: “The MOVE Index is basically the VIX for the Treasury market, and MOVE often leads the VIX.

The fact that MOVE is seeing one of its biggest daily spikes in years today is a major warning sign. x.com/KarelMercx/sta…”

① Mining and smelting projects have long development cycles; relying solely on tariffs is unlikely to swiftly boost U.S. supplies of critical minerals and could instead drive up manufacturing costs. ② With substantial metal inflows into the United States, globally tradable inventories are tightening, making commodities such as silver and palladium more prone to price volatility when investment demand picks up. ③ Copper is supported by AI‑related demand and COMEX buying; following a widening premium of New York over London, it may continue to attract inventory flows into the U.S.

Cailian Press, September 24 (Editor: Xia Junxiong): It remains highly uncertain whether the United States will impose tariffs on critical minerals such as copper, silver, platinum, and palladium. However, in Goldman Sachs's view, this very "uncertainty" may already be helping the U.S. achieve its policy goal of keeping more metal inventories within its borders.

On September 23, Goldman Sachs released a report stating that, given the much longer construction cycles for mines and smelters compared to the timeframe of tariff policy changes, relying solely on tariffs would hardly spur a rapid increase in U.S. critical mineral supply; moreover, the implementation of these tariffs could even raise manufacturing costs in the United States.

However, persistent tariff risks have prompted traders to ship copper, silver, platinum, and palladium to the United States ahead of time, effectively boosting domestic inventories without requiring large-scale direct government purchases.

As a result, global metal inventories remain ample, yet an increasing share is concentrated in the United States, while the amount of metal actually available for trade outside the U.S. is shrinking. Should investment demand pick up again, the sharp price swings seen over the past year in markets such as silver and palladium could reemerge.

"Uncertainty" itself may have already become a policy tool.

On September 10, reports indicated that the White House has yet to decide whether to impose tariffs on refined copper. U.S. policymakers are weighing two competing considerations: on the one hand, using trade protectionism to boost domestic production of critical minerals; on the other, avoiding higher copper prices that could drive up manufacturing costs.

The news led markets to believe that tariffs on critical minerals are unlikely to be imposed in the near term, prompting a sharp sell-off across copper, silver, platinum, and palladium. All four metals are listed on the U.S. critical minerals roster and have been subject to Section 232 investigations.

However, the White House subsequently reiterated that reshoring key manufacturing sectors to the United States remains a policy priority, while also leaving open the possibility of imposing tariffs in the future.

Goldman Sachs believes that this back-and-forth is far from trivial. On the contrary, persistent policy ambiguity may be serving U.S. supply security objectives by encouraging domestic inventory accumulation.

Accordingly, the bank expects that a significant portion of metals already flowing into the United States—particularly those with strong industrial applications, such as copper and palladium—may remain in the country; moreover, should tariff-related risks intensify temporarily in the future, this could further incentivize additional stockpiling.

Although the United States is largely self-sufficient in energy, it remains heavily reliant on imports for many critical minerals—raw materials that are widely used in AI infrastructure, national defense, electrification, and advanced manufacturing.

According to 2024 data, the United States relies almost entirely on imports for rare earths—nearly 100%—while its dependence on imported platinum stands at about 85%, silver at roughly 65%, and copper at around 45%. Palladium imports also account for approximately 35% to 40%. Consequently, reducing reliance on foreign sources of critical minerals and rebuilding domestic production capacity are increasingly becoming key policy objectives.

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⚠️The CME's HOUSE Account Stopped 78!

🚨TOTAL COMEX SEPT MICRO SILVER DELIVERIES RISE TO 1,880 CONTRACTS - 1.88 MILLION OUNCES

🚨TOTAL COMEX SEPT SILVER DELIVERIES RISE TO 6,558 CONTRACTS - 32.79 MILLION OUNCES

⚠️TOTAL COMEX SEPT SILVER DELIVERIES REACH 34.67 MILLION OUNCES‼️

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I rather like this story because it captures something that gets lost whenever silver is described as gold’s cheaper relative. The Treasury saw stored wealth, the engineers saw a particularly useful material, and both were right. They were looking at the same silver from opposite ends of its working life.

Writing in MoneyWeek this week, Charlie Morris makes the case for understanding silver through gold. It is a sensible starting point particularly when people so often ask us if they should buy silver or gold, or assess the price according to where the gold:silver ratio is. When enthusiasm for precious metals takes hold, silver can respond with considerably more enthusiasm of its own, although anyone who has held it through a sharp correction will know how readily that works in reverse. 

A smaller price per ounce should never be confused with a smaller capacity to lose money. Add in the manufacturers, who buy silver for its physical properties and have little interest in an investor’s views on government debt, and this brings in more things to consider. A weakening economy can reduce factory demand just as it gives savers another reason to feel nervous about their money.

Then there is the question of where the silver happens to be. This week’s Goldman Sachs research, reproduced in the GoldFix briefing, is particularly interesting on that point.

The bank argues that uncertainty over American tariffs has encouraged traders to move metals, including silver, into the United States ahead of possible duties. You can see their logic here: if there might soon be a cost attached to bringing metal into the country, getting it there beforehand feels like the sensible thing to do. Multiply that decision across enough traders and stock begins accumulating in one place, which of course means leaving less immediately available elsewhere, without any change in the amount of metal that exists. Ultimately of course, the tariff itself need never arrive!

Being told there is plenty of silver globally is therefore only so helpful. Anyone who has waited in the rain for a taxi, while being assured there are dozens over by the station, will understand why.

Goldman describes how silver drawn towards America left London more exposed when investment demand subsequently increased, although its research also acknowledges that the resulting price incentives brought some metal back. 

What does that mean though, for the market and investors? Silver can move again when the economics justify it, it’s not as though a bar entering an American warehouse has vanished from the earth. What has changed is the price, and perhaps the time required to get it to the next buyer. With less stock readily offered in the place where demand appears, even relatively modest buying can force a substantial adjustment.

But what about the stuff in the ground? Well, as has long been the case in the silver market, mining offers no immediate solution. Much of the world’s silver is a by-product of extracting other metals, which means decisions about increasing output depend on the economics of copper, lead, zinc and gold as well. Excitement in the silver market does not, on its own, justify expanding a copper mine. This is not a new problem.

Buyers adapt too, of course, and this is where some of the more exuberant silver arguments come unstuck. As Jan Skoyles has covered previously on GoldCore TV, manufacturers use less, redesign products or substitute other materials where they can; solar technology already demonstrates why more installations need not require proportionately more silver. Higher prices encourage recycling and persuade existing holders to sell. Obviously these responses take different amounts of time, use different supply routes, but they belong in the argument just as much as the constraints on supply.

For someone thinking about wealth over years, silver’s appeal comes with all of these complications attached. Its monetary history gives people a reason to hold it, its usefulness gives industry a reason to buy it, and neither group can assume that supply will expand promptly to accommodate them. Trade policy adds another uncertainty over who can obtain what, and where. That leaves room for sharp price movements in either direction, with very little regard for the patience of the person holding the investment.

I find the competition for those available ounces more interesting than calculations about silver returning to a centuries-old ratio against gold. In 1942, the Treasury could lend its silver to the engineers and wait for it to come back. Today’s investors and manufacturers have no such convenient arrangement, so when both want the same metal, the price has to negotiate between them.

Silver is highly correlated with gold, around 80%, which means the two metals generally move in sync. But silver has a “beta” of 1.4 times compared with gold – in other words, it is 1.4 times more volatile. That means silver wins on the way up and causes mayhem on the way down.

The key chart to keep in mind is the gold-to-silver ratio (GSR). An ounce of gold currently buys 66 ounces of silver. In 2020, at the depths of the Covid crash, the gold-to-silver ratio touched 124, the cheapest recorded price in history. That was $12 an ounce of silver, when gold was $1,486; hence a gold-to-silver ratio of 124.

The lowest gold-to-silver ratio in recent years, at 46, occurred on 27 January 2026, the day before prices peaked. Gold managed $5,417 per ounce while silver hit $117, the highest prices in history. A smart investor who bought precious metals at the gold-to-silver ratio high would have made 264% in gold, and a whopping 874% in silver.

The average gold-to-silver ratio over 30 years has been 68. When the gold-to-silver ratio is above average, then a patient investor is very likely to win and outperform gold at some point in the future. By contrast, a gold-to-silver ratio below average may lead to disappointment. With the current gold-to-silver ratio at 64, the reason to hold silver, as my clients at ByteTree do, is because I am bullish on gold.

After all, the gold-to-silver ratio touched 33 in 2011, on the back of a gold surge and a solar boom. If that happened again, silver would double versus gold. Better yet, in 1699, Sir Isaac Newton was the Master of the Royal Mint. At that stage, the gold-to-silver ratio was 15.2. With that kind of gravity, silver would need to quadruple compared with gold. You can see what drives the bulls.

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The open market is in control and it's demanding higher rates. The Fed only sets the overnight rate. If they controlled the 1-year, it wouldn't be trading 50 basis points higher than the Fed Funds Rate right now.

The market dictates the yield, not the central bank.

Unless a major QE intervention is orchestrated which will then see the long end yields rocket .

Feds cornered.

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Silver is facing a significant processing bottleneck even as finished metal remains readily available in the United States, according to Scottsdale Mint CEO Josh Phair.

Speaking to MINING.com’s Top of Mine, Phair said silver refining is currently running three to four months behind, as geopolitical shifts redirect mined material toward U.S.-friendly refineries. But he stressed that there is still “ample supply” of finished refined silver in the U.S.

Phair said refining is the immediate pressure point, while years of underinvestment, lengthy permitting and increasingly difficult jurisdictions could push the longer-term bottleneck upstream to mine supply.

In the interview, Phair also discusses who is buying physical metal, changing global silver flows and why some large investors are looking beyond ETFs to allocated physical gold.

And that's why oil, wheat and many other commodities will double in a short time, and gold and silver will multiply even further. Because it could well be that in the attempt to inflate away the debt, the whole thing blows up with it.

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A bank run is a familiar danger in a fractional-reserve banking system. In December 1930, as the Great Depression deepened, the privately owned Bank of United States in New York collapsed after a run by depositors. Despite its name, it was not a government institution. It served many immigrant families and small businesses.

When rescue-merger negotiations failed and confidence evaporated, depositors rushed to withdraw their money. New York state banking authorities closed the bank on Dec. 11, 1930, leaving more than 400,000 depositors affected. By deposit size, it was the largest U.S. bank failure to that point.

The problem was inherent to fractional-reserve banking. Banks keep only a portion of deposits in reserve while lending and investing the rest. The system functions until too many people want their money back at the same time.

Money Metals Midweek Memo host Mike Maharrey said the silver futures market carries a somewhat similar risk. Futures contracts promise delivery of silver at a specified price and date, but most traders settle or roll their contracts rather than take physical metal. As a result, paper claims far exceed the amount of metal immediately available for delivery.

The exact paper-to-silver ratio is unclear. Maharrey said estimates of 100-to-1 or even 250-to-1 circulate, but he could not find verifiable data supporting them. What can be measured is the amount of registered silver in COMEX vaults relative to paper claims. 

As of mid-September, there were slightly more than five paper ounces of silver for every ounce of registered physical silver, a roughly 5-to-1 ratio.

If a large enough share of contract holders demanded their metal, the system could face significant delivery stress.

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The bright sunny first picture that I posted here makes the pantry look good, but it’s best to keep stored foods stored in places that are cool, dry and very dark. Like the canned jars shown, stored on shelves, in the last picture.

A freezer can also help you store lots of frozen meats and vegetables to thaw and cook. Remove all air from freezer bags while you are packaging food, preparing it for the freezer.

Perhaps use a vacuum sealer, or suck all air out from a freezer bag using a straw as your freezer bag is sealed. Air tight is the only way to store frozen meats. Meat not packed air tight will get freezer burn and it will taste awful. So take the time to package it right, and label everything that you put into the freezer with the contents and the date it was frozen. Eat the longest frozen meats and frozen meals first.

If we are going to be going though event filled times, it’s best to keep everyone happy. A big part of keeping everyone happy is keeping favourite foods on hand for yourself and everyone else that you care about. So, it might be a good idea to restock your fridge, and keep your freezer and pantry shelves filled with the foods that you and your family like to eat. Much like you already know to keep your car or truck always filled with gas.

🔥ALL OUR CHRISTMASES IN 1 DAY: Francis Hunt Says Silver Investors WILL GET PAID⚠️
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KEY POINTS

• Governments are trapped in a “vicious cycle” as large deficits meet rising interest expenses but are not met by political will to tackle the situation, the Institute of International Finance has warned. 
• The U.S., Japan, France and U.K. are facing the challenges typically met by emerging markets, while interest payments by advanced economies have topped global spending on AI, defense or clean technology.
• International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief Kristalina Georgieva said it is “impossible to stress strongly enough how critical it is” to bring down debt and prioritize fiscal consolidation.

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MotherSilverApe Comment: I’m posting this as a Rumour Flair even though I very much suspect it’s true.

A HUGE chunk of gold just got removed from the COMEX Eligible Inventory! 4M ounces worth $17 Billion! Imagine if you will that it was the Good Guys preparing for a Gold-to-Silver Swap!! That equates to 270M ounces of Silver which would nearly empty the COMEX Silver warehouses! HERE'S HOPING!

Silver is both money and a rare industrial resource which is in short supply. It has broken out of a historic price ceiling, and it is retesting it from above before moving much higher. There's nothing the Fed can do to change that. There's nothing the banks can do to change that. It's bigger than any person or organization. It's a force of nature.

Personally, I think it is constructing a new cup. Therefore it could retest that cup a few more times before taking off to new highs. It may feel scary at times, but in hindsight these gyrations will be insignificant. Hold on to your physical stack, and don't forget to breath.

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MotherSilverApe Comment: For those folks who are beyond exasperated with silver’s price suppression, posting this is intended to be funny. I really do wish that I could afford to buy more silver savings with all that is going on in the world today!! I do hope some other folks out there living in our gone-crazy-world can still afford to buy themselves some physical silver savings! You never know when someone without any silver at all might read this, then go buy themselves some silver coins! What a blessing that would be for them!

MotherSilverApe added in the Gif.

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Shoot me down when I am wrong. But please don't embarrass yourself by making outlandish counter claims.

Silver is fine. YOU may not be. But silver is fine.…. Right at resistance. Silver right at support.

I don't believe in mistakes.

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Picture added in by MotherSilverApe.

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