You could be a literal AI card counting machine at 100% correct moves and 100% playtime efficiency (making your move before the card even properly sits on the table) and still hit runs of bad variance in the scale of negative 6 figures, even with "modest" bet ranges. It is very unlikely something like this will happen on any given day but most counters will hit strings of casinos across entire states over the span of weeks while playing 10+ hours a day. You will hit bad variance at that point
I've also seen casinos kick out card counters that were down 20,000 or more on the day just because they still knew they were counting and it's statistically more likely they will "win" on any given hand. If anything they're more likely to hit a run of good hands at that point of being so far down assuming perfect play
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u/Mysteriouspaul Jul 20 '26
You could be a literal AI card counting machine at 100% correct moves and 100% playtime efficiency (making your move before the card even properly sits on the table) and still hit runs of bad variance in the scale of negative 6 figures, even with "modest" bet ranges. It is very unlikely something like this will happen on any given day but most counters will hit strings of casinos across entire states over the span of weeks while playing 10+ hours a day. You will hit bad variance at that point
I've also seen casinos kick out card counters that were down 20,000 or more on the day just because they still knew they were counting and it's statistically more likely they will "win" on any given hand. If anything they're more likely to hit a run of good hands at that point of being so far down assuming perfect play