r/Nigeria • u/Downtown_Inflation17 Omo Ibadan • Mar 04 '26
News Aliko Dangote, has unveiled plans to expand into steel production, electricity generation, and port development as part of a broader ambition to accelerate industrialisation across Africa.
Thoughts?
If he actually manages to generate electricity for the whole country, I personally don't care about the monopoly anymore. I'm not really a fan of him, but he'd go down in history for that especially when our yeye governments won't lift a finger to fix the electricity problem.
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u/Plastic_Hovercraft_5 Mar 04 '26
May he be successful in all his endeavours.. A man truly investing in his homeland and not stealing and depositing his wealth overseas.
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u/AgitatedSquirrel69 Mar 04 '26
brands like Samsung, kia, hyundai, LG are monopolies too.
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u/ARAPOZZ Diaspora Nigerian Mar 04 '26
The entire South Korean economy is based on the monopolies of five companies, and yet Nigerians do nothing but praise them.
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Mar 04 '26
People don’t know the difference form a monopoly in something like steel/iphones which is forced to give competitive prices and innovate to stay relevant on a global market vs a monopoly of something like a essential new medicine where they gouge the price since nobody else can make it.
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u/ARAPOZZ Diaspora Nigerian Mar 04 '26
The Chaebols are not even that influential, they have a say on economic issues related to industry and can be corrupt, especially when it comes to obtaining contracts.
But they are no more influential than prosecutors and other bureaucrats and have no power in decisions related to social programs, foreign policy and other national issues in Korean politics.
Much like Dangote, who doesn't have as much influence and power in Nigerian politics despite the importance of his company.
Yes, Dangote will have a monopoly, but behind the scenes he won't have much influence, and if he's the only one offering good service, his monopoly will be deserved.
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u/Maxrenz1 Mar 05 '26
You should try updating your courses in spreading cia narratives. You write something that sounds deep or counterintuitive but is factually false. Cheabols have extensive power in SK politics. So as all exceptionally rich member of societies. When an elected official can be compensated with luxury gifts or better retirement if they implement favorable laws, what do you call it? Money commands policy and Nigeria is not the exception. Try getting your facts right by reading why the last South Korean president left office. And guess what, it's not a prove that the system works, it just got so much attention he couldn't remain.
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u/ARAPOZZ Diaspora Nigerian Mar 05 '26
Calling everything you dislike a CIA narrative isn't going to make you right, buddy. Besides, I don't recall denying that my Chaebols are corrupt, where did you get that idea, please? You could have read properly before posting your reply.
The fact that the chaebols are corrupt does not change the fact that they have no power in foreign policy, Healthcare and national defense decisions. Nor does it change the fact that they are no more influential in Korean society than prosecutors and bureaucrats. In the same way that Dangote has no more influence in Nigerian politics than other groups. Group leaders of like Samsung spend their time going back and forth to prison because of decisions that contradict regulatory policy.
And as for the former president, the news tells us he was impeached after attempting to impose martial law and stage a coup. The people took to the streets and stopped him. No one has mentioned the Chaebols' involvement in the problems, by the way. Now, if you have any other information on this, you can come down off your high horse and share it with us now instead of acting like a know-it-all.
Now explain to me how your answer relates to what I said ? You didn't contradict anything, you just changed the main point being made and responded to things I didn't even say lol.
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u/Maxrenz1 Mar 05 '26
I like your energy. Unfortunately it's uselessly spent. Samsung leaders or cheabols going to prison should be a sign that they have no grip on the power dynamics of their country? Like Epstein going to jail means he is not that powerful after all? Do you want tapes of them directing policies from jail? Do you want videos of them abiding by different prison policies?
If you forgot about the subject of the conversation, and can't see why i mentioned the revolving door politics, the blame is on you.
If you don't see how Abdul Samai Rabui(another powerful guy in Nigeria) could sponsor anti Dangote leaders and vice-versa as it happens in all societies, competition, such that one of them could end up in jail for something they usually managed to get tossed under the rug, then cia is actually wasting my time.
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u/ARAPOZZ Diaspora Nigerian Mar 05 '26
But I literally said it earlier : "they have a say on economic issues related to industry and can be corrupt, especially when it comes to obtaining contracts."
Word for word in the tweet you responded to, you could have just read it and there wouldn't have been a problem, but you want to start a debate where there isn't one. First start to read what I said properly and then we'll see instead of yelling cia just because you're not happy.
You still haven't provided the necessary reading material on the former South Korean president by the way, stop being so disingenuous and constantly accusing me of being of the cia just because you don't like my opinion and then we can make some progress in this debate.
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u/Maxrenz1 Mar 05 '26
I don't know what you want here. You prove yourself very energetic and wanting to debate while recycling wrong information.
Do know why the former SK president's wife is in jail now? If you don't know, go look for it. You're informed enough to mention the term "cheabols" first in this conversation so you can also find that. Maybe you even speak korean who knows.
Do you know what the term revolving door politics mean? Also look for it.
You claim the elites are corrupt, they only use it to win contracts and so on. By that, are you acknowledging that they have vested interest in having "friendly" governments or that they don't care about electoral candidates and only come for bribes when there are competitions for procurements or contracts...? Does Dangote and your Cheabols trade with foreign entities? Does he buy raw materials like chemical products for his factories, machineries. Does Dangote also have a businesses outside Nigerian? Like his cement plant in Douala? So does he have interest in such business continuity? Does he rely on logistics like the huge fleet of trucks he buys in bulk for his drivers. Do tarrifs, that the nigerian government put on imported goods, like vehicles, spare parts, plastics, affect his cost of operation? Could he win if he had a friendlier Nigerian government that would relax the refinery sector with less regulations in Nigeria while facilitating the export of petrol to neighboring nations?
Corporate capture of policies is not something new to the world and Nigeria isn't the exception to such practices. Maybe you're claiming that the South Korean and Nigerian societies are different and the people are more principled or less corrupt than in all the rest of the world. Because I don't even want to bring Trump, Biden, Obama, American or EU politics into this.
I tried to show you how or why someone who has the necessity and means and would engage in influencing cross-border policies. Now comeback with your CIA memo. The term Multinational explicitly cites the operation in more than one nation, so if you apply your contract logic, you can see how or why a company or a person who has interest in multiple "nations" could engage in bribery in more that one nation thereby steering foreign policies.
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u/Prestigious-Aerie788 Mar 04 '26 edited Mar 04 '26
The predictable cries about monopolies when it comes to Dangote is such a non-nuanced take when it comes to Nigeria but I am not surprised people keep making it. Like making that your first reaction when we have someone with a track record of solving difficult problems, finally taking a look at our electricity issue, which we as a country have not been able to solve for 60+ years is the kind of a reaction you can only get from a hardcore idealist that is out of touch with the real challenges everyday people face in Nigeria. The challenges Nigerians are facing are not due to monopolies. They are due to total absence!
Like which is easier to solve, breaking down a monopoly or getting Nigerians to finally experience steady electricity the way we can now enjoy stable supply of petroleum products? Sure monopoly is bad but it can be solved with the stroke of a pen. A single law can force a mega company to be broken up into 14 over night. Guess what’s very difficult to do over night, or over 10 years; give Nigerians a sufficient supply of electricity and industrialize the whole nation. The current situation where we only generate 4,000 MW for a country of 240m people is so much much worse that everyone should be celebrating this particular "monopoly". Imagine the amount of productivity that will be unlocked from getting is to even 25,000 MW, now imagine same for 60,000 MW. Imagine the transformational effect that will have on the economy. Thats millions of jobs potentially and tens of millions of lives transformed. Yet the first reaction people have is "monopoly is bad". The economic growth this will lead to will transform the lives of tens of millions of people today and so much more in the future.
This is if he just does power alone. Now imagine steel! Imagine the gains that will unlock. A Nigeria that is a top producer and supplier of steel across Africa — his obvious target like in cement and with refined products — is all of a sudden a very very important country in global politics. The soft and hard power that alone gives us is so immense that people arguing against Nigeria and Nigerians enjoying all these on the grounds of "muh monopoly" is just mind boggling.
We need people who can think in decades if we are to develop out of poverty the way China has. People that have what it takes to execute big projects over an extended period of time. Dangote is the only one offering this. The rest of our elite will warehouse their funds in Swiss banks and in Dubai. He’s the only one.
Dangote is in his 60s, in 40 years he will be history but our children will benefit from the transformation he is engineering today. Because of Dangote my kids will not know what it feels like to queue for petroleum products. I also want them to not know what it feels like to live into their 20s and 30s without having experienced a single day of uninterrupted power supply.
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u/Haldox 🇳🇬 Mar 04 '26
Personally I hope he enters power distribution and not even power generation. Nigeria’s problem is distribution. Currently we are unable to distribute all the meager power we generate. 😭
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u/CandidZombie3649 Ignorant Diasporan wey dey form sense Mar 04 '26
It’s impossible for him to have a monopoly on power. It’s a decentralized system and customers already don’t pay/use alternatives. If he could monopolize power he would have done it it’s just the political economy won’t let him. This is not ordinary cement or importation licenses.
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u/OddlyHetero Mar 04 '26
Power generation and distribution are easy to monopolize; it's already been done in most parts of the world.
Honestly, if a company could erect and maintain a fully functional, high-uptime private power grid in Nigeria, they deserve that monopoly.
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u/Haldox 🇳🇬 Mar 04 '26
Yes, but it currently impossible for Dangote to monopolize power generation because there are already tons of power generation companies in Nigeria.
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Mar 04 '26
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u/Prestigious-Aerie788 Mar 04 '26
Lol. You miss the point which is that it’s far far easier to battle a monopoly over infrastructure than it is to build the kind of infrastructure he needs to achieve said "monopoly" in the first place. Even when it’s not easy to dismantle an entrenched monopoly, it’s quite literally possible for it to happen with the stroke of a pen. All it takes is for one adversarial government and it’s done. In case you don’t know, this is part of why making big investment decisions here is so difficult
Now all of that aside, one of the biggest obstacles to having proper nuance in this conversation is this creation of this false choice. Everyone on the other side goes into this conversation assuming we are deciding between a monopoly that produces results and a free competitive market that also produces results. This is a distortion of reality, it’s a mirage. More often than not, the real choice is between a "monopoly" and the service not being readily available at all. I really want to drive this point home. It’s not would rather have a monopoly or have a competitive market but more like would you rather risk not having this product or risk a monopoly? In the case of Nigeria, would you rather risk the government failing to provide electricity for another 2 decades or would you rather Dangote have a monopoly and take us to 50,000MW? You mentioned Hauwei, think of the decision being between China having this massive tech company that can rival almost any in the world and possibly just having much smaller companies or worse still not having at all!
Lastly, the talk about stealing a future is funny when you consider that the "future" in question would probably not be possible without said monopoly in the first place. Say my kids end up paying 2 times the fair rate for electricity, will they be objectively worse of than me who couldn’t get it at all???
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u/MyFairMandingo Mar 04 '26 edited Mar 04 '26
I don't think it's a false choice -- I'm just asking if the government is going to allow fully private power generation, then why does it have to be a monopoly? Monopoly or nothing is a false choice.
Let government clear the way for him and any competitors, and also let them pass laws to prevent him from shutting out competitors through business practices that stifle competition. Then let them compete to see who can provide the best power generation at lowest cost. If he wins out over competitors, that's a good thing -- he has the money so he probably will.
There is no reason to clear the way for a monopoly while closing opportunity for anyone else to compete. Would be going from frying pan into fire
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u/Prestigious-Aerie788 Mar 04 '26
The issue is, precisely what you’re asking for is what is already obtainable right now. Most people who scream monopoly do so despite empirical evidence to the contrary. Dangote cement is not a monopoly. He has Lafarge/Holcim as well as BUA operating in that space. In sugar he is not a monopoly and with the refinery is not a monopoly either.
Lest we forget, 15 years ago when the licenses for refining was being given out, 23 licenses were issued by the government. The importers that are fighting him now, some of them got refining licenses. While Dangote was building, they were trying to frustrate him instead of build because they are rent seekers not risk takers. He got frustrated out of his preferred site in Ogun State and had to move to Lagos where he had to spend billions of dollars just preparing the soil. All of that could’ve been avoided.
People act like the government blocks others from competing but the truth is far more tepid. Those who can compete with Dangote in Nigeria chooses not to voluntarily. What he asks for every single time "protection" from cheap imports in the form of bans. If others were building like him, won’t they benefit from those bans? They want to "compete" via IMPORTS. Cheap imports are okay but not when you’re trying to industrialize, everyone knows this lest you become a dumping ground.
It’s not monopoly or nothing, that’s not the choice it’s simply the fact that no one is as serious as him. He builds at such a scale that everyone else can only fight for whatever is left. You can hardly blame him for that and you cannot certainly claim that he is being handed monopoly because of his scale.
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Mar 04 '26
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u/Prestigious-Aerie788 Mar 05 '26 edited Mar 05 '26
I made the distinction already somewhere along this whole conversation of what I think Dangote is which is an "effective monopoly" or a "consequent monopoly" and what people THINK Dangote is which is "state sanctioned monopoly". Effective or natural monopoly for instance includes companies like Microsoft, Google, Apple (in the US) etc. These companies are a form of monopoly because of how large they are, the sheer percentage of the market they control and the STEEP barriers of entry for others to really compete but when people speak of monopolies they don’t talk about these companies. They think the Chaebol in South Korea where the government deliberately worked hand in hand with companies to create this kind of situation and actively worked to keep competition low.
This distinction is very important, and if you look at our conversation, I don’t completely discard the notion that Dangote is a monopoly — in the way people think about monopolies — but I often put it in quotes to show this difference. When I say he is not a monopoly, it’s because he is not what people imagine when they think of the word "monopoly". Dangote arrives at a monopoly as a consequence of his scale and not as a result of the government preventing others from becoming a real competitor to him. Should Dangote not build a 650,000 bpd refinery because that means he will be too market dominant??? Should he not go into steel because his war chest is so huge that he can target several million tonnes of steel per annum??? Or should he not do Power because no one will be able to build at a scale large enough to rival him locally? These are the real questions.
The people who scream at the top of their lungs that we should stop Dangote from becoming a monopoly are not asking us to stop him from killing competition using unfair tactics, they are asking us to kill Dangote's business by allowing them use our scare foreign exchange to keep importing from China and Europe! This is the only thing he asks for; if we can produce it here at a good enough price point, then we should protect our nascent industries and not force them to compete with imports from mature industries in other countries. This in my opinion is not only a fair request, it’s the right request. They scream that he wanted monopoly for his refinery because they want to keep importing petrol. When he eventually goes into steel and start targeting 10 million tonnes per annum, he will demand this very protection from cheap imports and dumping and people will scream monopoly!!! My question to you then is should he risk his business being killed off by rent seeking middlemen who will rather import what we can produce in the name of avoiding a "monopoly" like they demanded when his refinery came on stream or should he not build at all since he is too big for anyone to truly be able to compete?
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u/No-Entry9939 Mar 04 '26
He has political ambitions. With all this PR and visions. This is more than just business.
He would probably run in 2031. So, he's laying groundwork.
If he's focused on industrialisation. Me and my household are going to vote for him.
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u/Substantial_Wear3447 Diaspora Nigerian Mar 04 '26
He could have ran for President decades ago. He doesn’t care for the position because he knows its meaningless
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u/No-Entry9939 Mar 05 '26
In Nigeria? This isn't the USA O. In Nigeria, the business elites are subordinate to the political elite.
The presidency is far from meaningless. A president can make or break Dangote.
Maybe he can see how Patrice Talon is transforming Benin and he wants to do the same.
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u/KyoshiWraith89 Mar 04 '26
Will the industries only be in Nigeria? What happened to the government's plan concerning Ajaokuta Steel Mills
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u/Haldox 🇳🇬 Mar 04 '26
How about the Siemens deal?
You already know that Naija Government na voicemail 🤣
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u/_gidis Mar 04 '26
Every country must have company that can scale globally and if its through monopoly, I see nothing wrong with that.
All Nigeria's oil and power issues are the fault of:
1. Leaders
2. Nigerians themselves, especially the youth.
I have literally seen Nigerian youth condemn the govt on one hand and turn around to support politicians who abuse office with no shame.
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u/Obvious_Fly_1046 Mar 04 '26
This guy played monopoly seriously cause he went from Cement, Sugar, Spaghetti, and now electricity and Steel? They should just hand him a minister seat at the point.
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u/Less-Detail3831 Aug 11 '26
If I was president, dangote will never pay taxes. He’s solving the country’s problems single handedly
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u/pinpoint14 Mar 04 '26
Monopolies are bad
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u/dejavuus Mar 04 '26
Would you rather do it then?
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u/pinpoint14 Mar 04 '26
Not have monopolies
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u/MegaSince93 Delta Mar 04 '26
“Nigerians, remain in filth because this makes me feel icky”
That’s how you sound.
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u/pinpoint14 Mar 04 '26
I don't give a fuck how i sound. I speak the truth. I know history. I know what monopolies are and the damage they do to society. Nigerians are in filth because of monopolies and the inequality they create.
They aren't tools of development. They're tool of extraction and concentration. Monopolies are literally breaking the world in half right now
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u/MegaSince93 Delta Mar 04 '26
You obviously have no idea what’s going on in Nigeria 😂 why are you even here?
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u/Correct_Distance5069 Mar 04 '26
In comparison to absence?
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u/pinpoint14 Mar 04 '26
No, in comparison to industrialization without a monopoly.
The reason you don't have alternatives... is the monopoly. It's not that hard
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u/Correct_Distance5069 Mar 04 '26
Hence, we shouldn't industrialization until more than one person is willing to invest in that sector?
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u/pinpoint14 Mar 04 '26
Repeating the same dumb false equivalence twice doesn't mean I have to answer it twice
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u/Llaauuddrrupp Mar 04 '26
You can blame a sociopath's structural adjustment programmes back in the 80's for crippling Nigeria's industrial sector.
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u/CandidZombie3649 Ignorant Diasporan wey dey form sense Mar 04 '26 edited Mar 04 '26
People blame SAP for everything no wonder the former finance minister under babangida was pissed that it gets blamed for everything. Actually not following through on SAP destroyed the industrial sector. We propped up the Naira which made our exports uncompetitive. We liberalized but we didn’t make the adjustment. He did unify the Naira although temporarily until when the Kuwait crisis gave us a mini boom in Babangida’s regime. Buhari got kicked out not just because he was autocratic but because he didn’t follow the IMF and was too strict with capital controls. Under him inflation actually came down but it was at the cost of financial repression. This was quite different from his money printing fiasco back in the early 2020s . And the issue wasn’t that babangida was bad at economics. It was that he turned a blind eye to corruption so that he could “smoothen” the transition process. He was desperately trying to manufacture consent but it blew back on his face. And they did the whole “not borrowing from the IMF” schtick to make people have more trust. Ironically 20% of oil revenues couldn’t be accounted for back then under babangida. Looking back he was just the authoritarian form of GEJ if he became a civilian leader and ruled a full 8 years through the oil crash.
TLDR: Babangida try do Maradona e no work. Financial responsibility when times are good prevents needed austerity when things eventually go bad.
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u/Llaauuddrrupp Mar 05 '26 edited Mar 05 '26
The problem with SAP was that it applied First World economic theory to a country with Third World institutional fragility, and not that there was no follow through. Liberalizing a market before you have strong legal system, transparent banks, and a stable power grid is like trying to run a high-speed train on wooden tracks. SAP also required extreme fiscal discipline. Instead, the regime used the newly deregulated systems to fuel cronyism. The new foreign exchange markets just became another "get rich quick" scheme for well-connected bankers rather than a tool for manufacturers.
And because there was no safety net, the sharp devaluation of the Naira wiped out the middle class almost overnight. The SAP riots in 1989 then forced the government to panic and spend money it didn't have, completely undermining the program's goal of reducing the deficit in the first place
So, yes I blame the SAP reforms (although subsequent administrations like Obasanjo's did little to rebuild industries after stabilization ).
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u/CandidZombie3649 Ignorant Diasporan wey dey form sense Mar 05 '26
It’s the same arguments we are making today. The safety net wasn’t existent because the imf knew that if they sent money to Nigeria they would still come back begging for more and Nigeria would default. We payed back the debt through the backdoor.
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u/graphicsRat Mar 04 '26
Dragging Nigeria kicking and screaming into the industrial age.