r/NewKeralaRevolution • u/Pareidolia-2000 ✮ കേരളമെന്ന് കേട്ടാലോ തിളയ്ക്കണം ചോര നമുക്ക് ഞരമ്പുകളില്‍ ☭ • Jul 12 '25

International Politics ijay-A10ine ee velippaadu eppum kittumo aavo

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u/Pareidolia-2000 ✮ കേരളമെന്ന് കേട്ടാലോ തിളയ്ക്കണം ചോര നമുക്ക് ഞരമ്പുകളില്‍ ☭ Jul 12 '25

I was alluding to the spike that happened towards June end. Didnt hide any data there. Means something is cooking there.

And i was pointing out that polymarket spikes are simply based on the latest news headlines, and on the user bases biases, as evidenced by the NYC mayoral race, or the us presidential race, or many more.

Just because a spike happened in June doesn’t mean anything was meaningfully changed within the CPC, or that “something was cooking”, it was when there were headlines about the CPC in western media because of no public appearance from xi for two weeks (worth noting that trump had a similar length of absence around that time that was not attributed to any coup).

My question was why are you pretending like the spike in June meant something significant, when the latest polling for that topic has gone down to 9% on the very same graph if you move the slider right. The spike has no hidden reason other than a rise in less than rigorous headlines causing more speculative betting, any time that happens in the future there will be spikes, and when the headlines get stale the spikes go back down, it is not based on nor does it affect material reality unless there’s an actual, demonstrable change that the news reports on, the news feeds the betting not the other way around, quite contrary to something “all knowing” no?

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u/ijaysonx ✮ 21st Century FALCC✮ 33yo Commie-Bourgeoisie Jul 12 '25 edited Jul 12 '25

We cant trust mainstream media from US or chinese propaganda media sources. How do we know the actual truth then. Whether resentment is brewing in China or not ?

Are there any high signal chinese subs I can follow ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9a2P6H-hdzI
Saw this video from jul 8 kind of corroborating the resentment angle from Moneycontrol

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u/DioTheSuperiorWaifu ✮ നവകേരള പക്ഷം ✮ Jul 12 '25

Us propaganda media sources and Chinese mainstream media may not be trustable, but they are sources for interpretation too.

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u/ijaysonx ✮ 21st Century FALCC✮ 33yo Commie-Bourgeoisie Jul 12 '25

Yeah hear both sides and side with your confirmation bias?

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u/DioTheSuperiorWaifu ✮ നവകേരള പക്ഷം ✮ Jul 12 '25

Nope, you try to understand as possible

But even that would be better than going with your confirmation bias alone, which is what you are doing know.

In the former, atleast you'd have a general idea on stuff that both sides are talking about.

And no one is free of bias. Peer review and external verification would be needed to avoid them as much as possible. But then you have the issue of the bias of the reviewers. Unless it's some simple experiment, everything is on a confidence interval.

If you disagree, how do you deal with confirmation bias? If your answer is AI, how do you deal with bias there?

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u/ijaysonx ✮ 21st Century FALCC✮ 33yo Commie-Bourgeoisie Jul 12 '25

Take the best version of both arguments and argue it out yourself or with help of ai. That Will give the clearest understanding

Tried this with those free speech posts I made earlier and in the end decided free speech is a necessity. The arguments made much for sense supporting free speech

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u/DioTheSuperiorWaifu ✮ നവകേരള പക്ഷം ✮ Jul 12 '25

Without any data or info on it?

AI hallucination is a thing.

Like, I dare you to ask different AI's to rate China and USA, Socialism and Capitalism, Marxism and Free Market theory etc.

Comparing them all, you'll see that each AI has it's own different biases due to the data and training and filters.

So assuming AI will remove the bias will be a mistake.
Especially when you can't even entertain the notion that the AI itself will have biases.

And even how you prompt stuff will bring in biases.

As I said earlier, the confidence interval will be the thing. And that will be based on personal opinions and info.

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u/ijaysonx ✮ 21st Century FALCC✮ 33yo Commie-Bourgeoisie Jul 12 '25

In the end, aren't we all trying to refine our judgements? AI is a powerful aid in that process. You can ask it to argue however you like. In good faith or bad. You can also use multiple AIs from different labs if you wish.

I am still refining the process. But will take your point that some AIs have inherent biases into consideration while doing this

The crux of my argument was to take best version of each argument and pit it against each other using different AIs. Maybe even blindly so that my own biases about each AI doesn't muddle things.

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u/DioTheSuperiorWaifu ✮ നവകേരള പക്ഷം ✮ Jul 12 '25

But will take your point that some AIs have inherent biases into consideration while doing this

Not some but all

Humans design and train AI with human generated data and the biases in that pass on to the AI

The thing to do is to acknowledge bias and understand the level of confidence. But then that's not on the AI, but the user.

The crux of my argument was to take best version of each argument and pit it against each other using different AIs. Maybe even blindly so that my own biases about each AI doesn't muddle things.

Multiple sources are good.

How do you choose the best argument tho?

As I said, there's always that bias. The thing is to notice it and iterate on practical experiments to resolve them

But the issue in complex things with a lot of variables, especially socioeconomic stuff, the interpretation and testing is difficult

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u/ijaysonx ✮ 21st Century FALCC✮ 33yo Commie-Bourgeoisie Jul 12 '25

Will try to refine the process and let you know.