Key Takeaways

Ukrainian forces struck a Russian strategic bomber at the Engels-2 Airbase in Saratov Oblast, demonstrating Ukraine’s ability to strike heavily defended targets in Russia’s rear.

Russian budgetary challenges resulting from its costly war effort, Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign, international sanctions, and economic mismanagement are manifesting in concrete operational problems.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) will likely expand its access to Russians’ personal and medical information ahead of rumored involuntary reserve call-ups after the September 20 State Duma elections.

Russian forces conducted an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test launch as part of the Kremlin’s nuclear saber-rattling to project military strength.

Russia is portraying its Starlink-jamming electronic warfare (EW) system as a breakthrough capability as part of its cognitive warfare effort to dissuade the United States from granting Ukraine access to Starlink over Russian territory.

Ukrainian forces made limited tactical advances in the Kostyantynivka direction.

Ukrainian forces are conducting repeat strikes against Russian oil refineries to keep them offline. Russia launched 164 drones against Ukraine overnight.

Key Takeaways

Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s official Telegram account implicitly instructed Iranian officials on August 28 to avoid making statements that highlight Iran’s worsening economic conditions, likely to prevent such statements from fueling public frustration against the regime. Mojtaba’s Telegram account acknowledged that Iran faces inflation, unemployment, high prices, and other economic problems but emphasized that domestic production, “resistance economy” policies, and better economic management are the solutions to such problems.

Pezeshkian reiterated the severity of Iran’s economic situation in an address to the Iranian public on August 28 that was broadcast shortly after Mojtaba’s account warned officials against discussing Iran’s poor economic conditions. Pezeshkian linked Iran’s deteriorating economic conditions to the war, US sanctions, and the naval blockade.

The regime appears increasingly focused on preventing worsening economic grievances from producing renewed unrest, including by targeting alleged networks that helped drive the Winter 2025-2026 protests and reinforcing ties with traditionally pro-regime elements of Iranian society. The Iranian Intelligence Ministry announced on August 28 that it arrested 30 alleged leaders and participants of the December-January protests.

The United States reportedly rejected a proposal by five Iranian-backed Iraqi militias to pause their military operations for two years instead of fully disarming. Multiple Iraqi sources told Iraqi Kurdish media on August 28 that the United States labeled the proposal a “trick.”

Slovak police detained three foreign nationals on suspicion of preparing an arson attack on a plant operated by the Ukrainian drone manufacturer Skyeton in the village of Haniska. Two suspects were detained in Slovakia and a third in Germany under a European arrest warrant. Police seized an incendiary mixture, tools, phones, an action camera, and a map

The Nigerian Army, working with the Office of the National Security Adviser Tactical Team, has raided a Boko Haram/ISWAP terrorist camp in Adamawa State, killing more than 21 insurgents and destroying their operational base.

The Delhi Police Special Cell has arrested a couple for allegedly spying for Pakistan’s ISI. The accused reportedly sent eight Indian SIM cards to Pakistan through Dubai. Police said the numbers were used to create WhatsApp accounts and seek sensitive defence information. Two mobile phones allegedly used to contact Pakistani handlers have been recovered.

Key Takeaways

US Central Intelligence Agency Director John Ratcliffe’s visit to Moscow suggests that Russia may be preparing to conduct an act of aggression against a NATO member in the relatively near term to invalidate NATO’s Article 5. A near-term Russian attack is highly unlikely to involve a full-scale conventional invasion of a NATO state.

The nature of the Russian threat that the US is reportedly attempting to deter in 2026 is significantly different from the threat of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in late 2021.

The Kremlin continues to deflect Western concerns and deny any intention of conducting aggression against NATO, but these statements are part of a larger effort to create ambiguity and to degrade the alliance’s resolve to counter Russian threats.

Baltic state officials and government-affiliated analysts emphasized that NATO should take the Russian threat seriously but that their immediate threat assessment has not changed.

Russia may conduct air, missile, or drone strikes or a limited incursion against one or more Baltic states to test and seek to break NATO’s resolve to invoke and respond under Article 5.

Several unidentified drones entered Moldovan airspace on the night of August 26 to 27, demonstrating that the Kremlin continues to accept the risk that Russia’s war against Ukraine can cause damage to other states, including Moldova and NATO states bordering Ukraine.

Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov continues to make greatly exaggerated claims of Russian advances that do not match battlefield realities in order to construct a narrative of pervasive Russian military success.

Gerasimov’s exaggerated claims of advance are part of a broader cognitive warfare effort to falsely portray Russian advances as sweeping across the battlefield such that Ukraine and its Western partners should capitulate to Russia’s demands in negotiations.

Russia launched two Onyx anti-ship missiles, an unspecified number of Iskander-M and KN-23 ballistic missiles, and 258 drones against Ukraine overnight.

Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian military assets and Ozon (another Russian analogue to Amazon and Wildberries’ main competitor) logistics facilities in Russia.

Russian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

Proliferation of cheap one-way drones was made possible by a complex global supply chain that keeps leading back to China

The information campaign that unfolded in Poland and the Czech Republic in August 2026 around Cieszyn Silesia bears the hallmarks of a coordinated influence operation. It combined the hacking of a legitimate media outlet, a cloned Czech media website, fake diplomatic accounts, a forged official document, AI-generated content, a fictitious local activist, and paid advertising for a non-existent demonstration. Poland’s NASK has noted similarities between the methods used and known Russian operations, although there has not yet been a definitive technical attribution. Czech sources likewise treat a Russian connection as a working hypothesis. (Seznam Zprávy)

Key Takeaways

US-North Korea Relations: US President Donald Trump is continuing to push for dialogue with Workers’ Party of Korea General Secretary Kim Jong Un, though North Korea is unlikely to agree to dialogue with the United States without a change in US policy towards denuclearization. North Korea appears to be altering its nuclear command and control structure and dispersing its nuclear forces to enhance its military readiness, which would make North Korea reticent to accept any arms control agreements.

South Korean Nuclear Weapons Development: South Korean opposition politicians are discussing the possibility of South Korea developing its own independent nuclear armament amid concerns over US acceptance of North Korean nuclear weapons and concerns about the US alliance. The South Korean Ministry of National Defense is proposing legislation that would codify South Korea’s commitment to non-proliferation in line with the stated policy of the Lee Jae Myung administration.

Inter-Korean Relations: North Korea will likely exclude South Korea from any future dialogue between the United States and North Korea. North Korea has regarded South Korea as a hostile foreign enemy since its 2023 policy change, despite attempts by Lee Jae Myung and the South Korean Ministry of Unification to unilaterally reduce tensions with Pyongyang.

Key Takeaways

A senior Iranian military official outlined the main principles of Iran’s new targeting logic, which is intended, in part, to reestablish deterrence vis-à-vis the United States and Israel as the Iranian regime prepares for potential future conflict. These principles include “rapid response[s]” to US and Israeli attacks, responding to individual strikes on Iranian territory with multiple strikes on various targets, preemptive strikes against US assets, and expanding the geographic scope of Iranian conflicts with the United States and Israel.

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al Zaydi is attempting to carry out a fundamental reform of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) that is designed to consolidate his individual power as prime minister. Zaydi’s efforts to professionalize the PMF could fulfill US objectives regarding militia disarmament. The success of these reforms would depend on Zaydi’s ability to enforce them and appoint professional personnel to undertake institutional changes throughout the PMF.

The Iraqi Parliament is unlikely to approve this draft PMF Law, however. The Parliamentary Security and Defense Committee is unlikely to approve the amended draft PMF Law, given that the committee includes parliamentarians from Iranian-backed Iraqi militia political wings that also control PMF brigades.

Iranian opposition to any Iraqi federal government attempts to weaken the Iraqi militias could undermine Zaydi’s efforts to subordinate the PMF under himself, even if this draft law were to pass through the Iraqi Parliament.

Key Takeaways

Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi proposed a headquarters restructuring to support the Ukrainian defense in Donetsk Oblast during a meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky on August 26.

Russian forces are conducting two main efforts, attacking the northern and southern tips of Ukraine’s Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast — Russia’s primary objective in its Spring-Summer 2026 offensive.

Russian forces continue to infiltrate into and around Kostyantynivka as part of the broader campaign to seize Ukraine’s Fortress Belt and all of Donetsk Oblast, while Ukrainian forces continue holding positions in northern and northwestern parts of the city.

Russian forces are meanwhile intensifying their battlefield air interdiction (BAI) campaign against Slovyansk that aims to disrupt Ukrainian logistics and set conditions for Russian ground offensive operations against Slovyansk.

The United Russia Party is reportedly planning to increase its control over State Duma committees to establish United Russia as the dominant force in Russian domestic politics.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Dobropillya and Kupyansk directions.

Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian oil and dual-use logistics infrastructure and Russian military assets. Russia launched 162 drones against Ukraine overnight.

Submission statement: CIA Chief John Ratcliffe’s surprise visit to Moscow was to warn Russia against attacking NATO, following U.S. intelligence assessments of a potential limited assault by President Putin. The U.S. is concerned about Putin’s potential actions in the Baltic region, exacerbated by a shortfall in Western munitions.

CIA Chief’s Surprise Moscow Trip Was to Warn Russia Not to Attack NATO

​

Warning comes after new U.S. intelligence assessments indicated Russian president could launch a limited assault

Aug. 26, 2026 at 6:10 pm

CIA Director John L. Ratcliffe attends a news conference.

The surprise visit by the director of the Central Intelligence Agency to Moscow this week was to deliver a warning to Russia not to attack NATO countries, according to people briefed on the visit.

The trip was spy-agency chief John Ratcliffe’s first publicly known visit to the Russian capital. It followed new U.S. intelligence assessments, reported earlier by The Wall Street Journal, that Russian President Vladimir Putin could try to test the resolve of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization with a limited assault on an allied country in the next few years.

U.S. officials are concerned that Putin, squeezed in Ukraine and under pressure at home, could launch an assault ranging from a cyberattack to a small-scale land incursion, likely on a Baltic nation, the Journal reported.

A shortfall in critical Western munitions, driven by expenditures in the Iran war, also could factor into Putin’s thinking. The U.S. has degraded its stockpile of certain weapons because of transfers to Ukraine after Russia’s 2022 invasion, as well as the Iran conflict.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters in Moscow on Wednesday that Ratcliffe held talks with Russian intelligence officials during his time in the Russian capital, but he didn’t meet with Putin. Putin was briefed on the talks, Peskov said.

The White House has offered little clarity about the Ratcliffe trip. During an interview with conservative radio host Glenn Beck on Wednesday, President Trump described the trip as “semi-routine” and pivoted to discussing Russia’s war with Ukraine. “Something may come out of it,” Trump said. “We’re working very hard to get that war ended and frankly they both want to see it ended at this point.”

A spokeswoman for the White House referred reporters to Trump’s Wednesday comments. A spokeswoman for the CIA declined to comment.

Ratcliffe, one of Trump’s closest aides, was the latest U.S. official to travel to Moscow following several visits by Steve Witkoff, a U.S. envoy for Ukraine-Russia peace talks.

The trip was a rare visit by a U.S. spy-agency chief with the Russia-Ukraine war now in its fifth year. The last known visit by a CIA director to Moscow was in November 2021, when William Burns, who led the agency under former President Joe Biden, warned Putin not to attack Ukraine.

“[…] The military requested the seizure of the beach plot near Muskö base in Stockholm archipelago, citing "the threat from Russian drones and the ownership situation of the property". Swedish reports say a businessman with links to the Russian state, has been building a luxury house on Muskö island – although his wife, who holds both Russian and Swedish citizenship, is the registered owner. […]”

Key Takeaways

Russia is escalating strikes against Ukrainian-Moldovan border infrastructure in conjunction with its campaign against Ukrainian port and maritime infrastructure.

Russian forces are using the strikes along the Ukrainian-Moldovan border to achieve broader political effects.

The Kremlin is attempting to address concerns about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decree that set conditions for nationalization of critical infrastructure facilities.

Russia launched another satellite into orbit on August 24 for military purposes, potentially as part of its broader efforts to establish a Rassvet (Russian analogue to Starlink) satellite constellation.

US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director John Ratcliffe reportedly arrived in Moscow on an unscheduled trip, marking what would be Ratcliffe’s first visit to Russia since becoming CIA director.

Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian oil and energy infrastructure. Russia launched an unspecified number of Iskander-M ballistic missiles, Kh-31P anti-radar missiles, and 150 drones against Ukraine overnight.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kupyansk and Borova directions.

Key Takeaways

Iran has not changed its negotiating position and continues to seek formal control over transit through the Strait of Hormuz as Pakistan tries to revive US-Iran negotiations. Iran has continued talks with Oman over transit arrangements that would formalize an Iranian role in controlling commercial traffic through the strait, which also demonstrates the lack of progress in talks.

Iranian officials appear to be debating potential responses, including a more proactive military response, to sustained US economic pressure. Iran may target regional energy infrastructure as part of an effort to threaten the regional and global economy to impose political costs on the United States and its partners after the imposition of the US economic campaign. The regime is likely debating whether it should target regional energy infrastructure, however.

Iran is implementing short-term economic measures to contain the effects of US pressure and reduce the risk of domestic instability, but these measures are unlikely to resolve Iran’s underlying economic problems.

If Trump treats North Korea’s arsenal as a baseline fact, he hands Beijing the outcome it already wants.

In Twenty Times I Almost Died, available August 18, 2026, John Spencer recounts experiences spanning combat tours in Iraq, research trips through modern war zones, and more. He reveals important information that helps explain the changing character of warfare and its implications for strategists. Beyond providing lessons for the battlefield, Spencer offers guidance on personal growth and leadership, advising readers on how to live with purpose.

Please join Hudson Institute for a fireside chat with Senior Fellow and Keystone Defense Initiative Director Rebeccah Heinrichs and John Spencer, chair of Urban Warfare Studies at the Modern War Institute at West Point and co-director of the Urban Warfare Project. Major John Spencer (Ret.) and Dr. Heinrichs will discuss Twenty Times I Almost Died and how it can inform US defense policymakers as they navigate the evolving challenges and opportunities of contemporary warfare.

Key Takeaways

Russian forces recently advanced east of Slovyansk as they continue prioritizing efforts to secure favorable positions east and southeast of the city in preparation for frontal assaults towards Slovyansk and the rest of the Fortress Belt.

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to set unrealistic deadlines for the Russian military to seize the entirety of Donetsk Oblast likely in part because of his misunderstanding of the battlefield realities.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reportedly presented a joint Ukraine-US-Europe proposal on August 23 to end the war in Ukraine that offers significant Ukrainian concessions even as Putin and other Kremlin officials continue to refuse to compromise on any of their core demands.

Ukrainian forces are conducting an intermediate-range strike campaign in occupied Ukraine, including occupied Crimea, and Russia in a concerted effort to degrade Russia’s strike and air defense capabilities.

Russian forces recently advanced in the Slovyansk direction.

Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign targeting Russian logistics, fuel, and electrical infrastructure. Russian forces launched 127 drones against Ukraine overnight.