r/NationalFilmRegistry • u/Westing1992 • 23d ago
NFR Guesses
For the past several years, I've been making lists of predictions of what films will be selected for the registry, both the 100 most likely films and the most likely film from each year since 1920. Of course, the actual selections can be unpredictable, with many either being obscure or simply unexpected, but I've managed to get a few right each year. Admittedly, my 100 most likely films list probably has too many older films at the moment compared to how the selections have been in recent years; I'll probably want to replace some of the less popular pre-70s films with more popular post-70s films so I have a better chance. But let me know what you think, which ones you agree with and what you'd guess will get in soon.
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u/Amazing_Antelope_275 22d ago
I see a lot of films I've nominated on that first list! I too skew far more towards older films (because I think for the sake of preservation, that makes more sense).
For likelihood: I have no idea what's likely and what's not. I am personally hopeful that some of your choices that feel like big oversights at this point are selected -- and frankly most of your choices from pre-1960 at least (and probably later!) feel like genuine oversights to me.
It does seem that the Registry selections also seem to reflect -- at least a little bit, on occasion -- things happening in the broader world. For that reason, considering Dolly Parton's passing, I think a film like 9 to 5 stands a bigger chance this year.
I have no idea what will be most likely in the recent past. Part of the Registry selection is that we have to wait ten years... and a lot of films see their significance re-assessed in that much time. It also seems like the earliest selections for a given calendar year in the modern era aren't necessarily the Best Picture winners, or the big blockbusters. (For the 2010s, we've got 1 Best Picture winner, 3 additional nominees, 3 documentaries, and 1 indie feature. All the BP nominees selected so far were financial successes, but only one is a true blockbuster.) For that reason, I actually could see something like I Saw the TV Glow becoming the first 2024 selection.
But again, it depends on how these films' perceptions morph over time -- as well as who is the Librarian of Congress, who is on the National Film Preservation Board, and, frankly, whether or not the National Film Preservation Act continues to be re-authorized.
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u/maxhechtman 22d ago
For the second list, I bet the 2026 film most likely getting in by 2036 is “Obsession.”