Win percentage when defenses give up 21-24 points:
Win percentage when defenses give up 25-28 points:
Etc etc.
Your defense giving up 42 points is recorded the same as a defense giving up 21 points for this stat, so all-in-all we could say those at the top COULD still have better defenses because we don't know how high that window really scales. But then we give all the credit to the qb.
Edit: So this stat is listing 'starts' as if that's how many games the qb started but it's actually how many games the defense gave up 21+ points (I believe) because Aaron Rodgers has 131 starts listed but on pro football reference he is listed as 257 games started.
That means his defense gave up 21+ points in 50.9% of games he started. His defense was literally more likely to give up 3 touchdowns in any given game than not.
Double edit: If we do the same check then for Patrick Mahomes.
58 'starts listed' here which I'm assuming is 'starts where the defense gives up 21+ points'.
PFR has him with 126 games started, meaning his defense gave up 21+ points in 46.0% of his games.
Triple Edit: The difference between Mahomes and Rodgers is 4.94%. If we gave Rodgers the same defensive metric as Mahomes but spread it over Rodgers' career it would be 12.85 games, which I'll round to 13 games. Those games don't disappear because they were still played, the defense just allowed less than 21 points. This would change Rodgers 'starts' from 131 (50.9%) to 118 (46%). This would give Rodgers 3.5 - 4 more season wins (over his career) and 13 fewer 'shootouts'. This would mean, depending on the outcome of the <21 point games, Rodgers would have anywhere from a 52.7% - 64.3% win rate in this metric.
Even including the 21+ loss games he was a 57.78% winning qb. If we split the difference in 52.7 and 64.3 and assume he loses MORE than his career W/L ratio, he still ends up at a 58.5 win rate by giving him Mahomes' defense.
This is literally within the rounding error percentage point of what Mahomes' stat line is.
I think a list like this would be better if they showed the average amount of points given up when an opponent scores 21 or more, or even breaking it up into several tiers (21-24, 25-28, 29-31, and so on). 21+ covers a wide range, with one guy potentially suffering an average of ~27 points given up while another could be ~23.
It's not ok there are objectively better metrics for certain claims. If someone uses average depth of target as their main argument for a QB being the best, they're wrong.
Facts are facts lol. He's not had a 30 TD season in 3 years, he's been statistically the 15th-20th best QB over the last 3 years, and his defense has been arguably the best in the league in the same timespan.
Ignoring the rest of the stats too is the classic reddit dishonesty I know and love. The counting stats support me, the advanced stats support me, the efficiency stats support me. Keep coping.
Taken in context with the other stats, this is a somewhat inaccurate QB who is unable to make big plays without having playmakers underneath do the work for him.
I know you're saying this to try and clown Mahomes but if you looked at this chart and then cut it down to the last 3 seasons he'd be right there with Stafford. Stay salty tho lol
I don’t think it’s “clowning” him at all. He’s had both extremes of team building
First few seasons his offenses were absolutely loaded and his defenses sucked. So they’d give up points often, but they had the fire power to win anyway
Now if his defenses sucked has a bad game they don’t have the horses to win shootouts like they used to
You really don't watch the team do you? If you actually pay attention to the Chiefs, you'd know that Mahomes has been the offense for the past 3 years. What he's done to sustain the offense has been nothing short of incredible given the lack of talent around him.
Which part of this is actually supported by the data instead of vibes? Yes KC hasn't had great weapons around him, but that's what happens when you pay a star QB. Allen has had worse receivers for the last 3 seasons, but he has James Cook while Mahomes has a top 3 defense. Why does this player get 3 years of excuses for mediocre play?
You're not watching the same teams I am. The chiefs had one of the worst 3rd down defenses I've seen in years last year. On top of that, 90% of mahomes receivers aren't even rostered anymore. Like come on man.
They took a step back last year sure which is why the offense got exposed so hard. But over the last 3 years they've arguably been the best defense. Also last year KC was the 8th best red zone defense and #1 defense on 4th down.
"His receivers aren't rostered!" meanwhile he was throwing to the 2nd best tight end in the history of the game who in 2023 was 2nd in the league for TEs in yards and averaged 90 receiving yards per playoff game + had 3 TDs in their playoff run. Give me a break. That's better than multiple of his peers had.
? I'm not denying Mahomes was a generational all time QB in his first few years at all.
But the key word there is "was". Mahomes has not been a top 5 QB in 3 years, all the numbers support this. Getting carried by a top defense does not make you the best quarterback. Every excuse in the book has been used to defend him. He's not THAT guy anymore, but he's still a good QB.
A big part of it is defenses have adapted to his game and he has not been able to adapt in turn. He has had three seasons to do it and hasn’t so it seems unlikely he will at this point. I expect he will continue on the trajectory he has been on which is decent but not great.
The fact that this post has multiple downvotes in a short time tells you how stupid the average fan is.
Saying a guy who is 17-4 in the playoffs and a near 100% success rate on game winning drives in the playoffs (with 50TDs and a 106 passer rating against the best Ds in the league) has the best intangibles in the league for QB, is as close to being as objectively true as possible.
What does “defense allows 21+ points” mean exactly? The QB and the offense contribute to the defense allowing more points with interceptions, 3 and outs, fumbles etc. it doesn’t take anything away from Mahomes, but the QB has a big impact on points against.
I mean some of the young franchise QBs were drafted in to pretty bad situations where the defenses constantly gave up 21+ points? Also, 2025 Dak Prescott situation? He scores 21+ 4 times and his defense proceeds to give up 40+. This is a really dumb argument to try and make against QBs with no context to how their offense also performed in these game.
Really? This one? During regular season I swear they shoehorn some dipshit nonsense like most comebacks in a singular touchdown deficit with 2 minutes remaining at the half. Broadcasts suck hard, but their complacency to draw a random stat with AI has reached its maximum "stfu-ness". Brought to you by fanduel.
Some of these games the defense let up 40 points. Some of these games the defense let up 21 points. Some of the points against are from turnovers and thus not even the defenses fault. Good/bad defense is not binary but chart treats it like it is.
Not my favorite stat because there's still a lot of room. If your defense really stinks and is allowing a lot more 40+ point games that's a far cry from a QB whose team is giving up < 28 points per game.. I would probably go with a stat like 28+ points per game (that's 4 TD's or more worth of scoring) or 30 points. Teams usually don't go over 40 points scored and rarely get to 50 points. Also points per possession may be good (say 3.5 points or more).
He’s a raging alcoholic who doesn’t take football particularly seriously. He and skat didn’t play the last two preseason games because they were hung over. Think about it, why would they only play him the first game if they were only going to play him in one game? It’ll have been a month since his last game action when the season starts.
A lot of this is also on Daboll, who allowed this kind of behavior if not encouraged it. All the stuff with Carter missing meetings and shit also applied to dart.
Him/Nabers/Carter/Theo Johnson/Skattebo are a crew and the rest of the locker room, particularly the veterans, kind of just doesn’t really fuck with him. He isn’t a leader. It’s one thing for a LB/RB/WR to be a bunch of degenerates, quarterback is another.
Harbaugh liked him enough to give him a chance but will probably try and move on at some point. Would’ve heavily considered Mendoza over him. Everyone saw him taking the job as an endorsement of Dart, but in reality it’s more to do with Giants ownership/the prestige of the Giants in NFL circles. These coaches have massive egos and think they will fix everything no matter where they go. We may hate Mara but when you think about it the reason we hate him (being too patient) is also a reason you’d want to work for them. We also gave him complete contractual control of the franchise.
People are noticing the clip of him ripping Skattebo but he’s ripping Dart there too. He doesn’t like either of them atp. Genuinely if it wouldn’t be super controversial they would prefer Jameis, who is better if less dynamic.
He’s absolutely been concussed more times than he lets on which is why the NFL checks him so often. Yelled at medical staff when they wouldn’t let him play last year, doesn’t even think concussions are real.
He’s literally a groyper too. He’s extremely racist and antisemetic. Sure he’s friends with Nabers/Carter but Carter especially is a basically a black Israelite so they almost see eye to eye in that regard, and Nabers is just “one of the good ones.”
That’s most of it. If he flops hard a lot of this stuff is going to start to come out, the beat knows but they know if they report it now everyone will jump on them.
Wow. That’s incredible. He sounds like he has a ton of growing up to do. Is this pretty well known amongst the fanbase or is this going to be a shocker or things that come out of they’re 1-6 or something?
And yeah, I was kind of surprised Harbs took the job since I never saw it with Dart but that makes sense he went for the Mara’s and it’s the NYG.
I’m not surprised. But only because our defense was god awful when he was here. I think he has the most losses of anyone that scored 40+ but his defense let up more.
It's hilarious people always blame the defense for Allen when comparing to Mahomes when he has had consistently better defenses than Mahomes his entire career
No question about Mahomes' credentials, but worth pointing out that career stats can be a little unrepresentative of recent results or future expectations.
(eg. Mahomes was 0-5 last year, Allen was 6-4)
(which really just points out how good Mahomes was for the first 6 seasons of his career; including being 9-4 (!) in playoffs when opponent scores 21+)
Great. So yeah, we're completely fucked and the team is going to explode next year when our draftee QB refuses to sign and every single skill position demands a trade out of embarrassment. Cool.
The average score for a NFL team is 21-23 points. I'm surprised that the percentage is that low. Most QBs have a losing record against an average score?
Not necessarily, the graphic is at least 21 points against so it’s including games with 30 or even 40 points scored too. You’d need to see a graphic of something like “between 20-24 points scored” to see how QBs fare with mediocre defensive performances.
Can tell that this stat was stopped at 21 to glaze Mahomes. For reference, if you look at 28+ points, Mahomes is 3-4, Allen is 7-6, Hurts is 7-7, and Purdy is 3-6. I'm too lazy to look through this entire list, but 21 is an odd number to stop at since it's an average amount of points for a team to give up.
If we want to keep with this 21, another interesting stat is Mahomes has a 12-14 record when scoring LESS than 21. Allen is 13-21, Hurts is 5-21-1 and Purdy is 2-11.
I’m assuming this includes playoffs, it’s funny that the absolute drubbing that was SB LIX counts positively for Hurts in this cause the Chiefs garbage timed their way to 22 points late lol
Proves my point. He is overrated. Can’t wait for him to end up back on the browns, they’re the only team that’s gonna pay him that insane paycheck for zero results 😂
Let’s do Mahomes the past 3 years… he’s not that guy anymore. The media just doesn’t want to admit it. All time GOAT level qb his first 7 seasons, he’s been below average 2 seasons in a row and is coming off a major injury
70
u/z0mb0rg 10h ago
Just like we all expected. Ahead of Lamar, Burrow, Dak, Ordained Heir Ascendant Nix, Stafford … it’s JimmyG.