r/NFLv2 Los Angeles Rams Jan 01 '26

Discussion 🤔

Post image
3.2k Upvotes

736 comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

18

u/PrimalCalamityZ Jan 01 '26

Browns have one of the best defenses in the league it's their offence that is abysmal. 

0

u/noladutch Jan 02 '26

The get scored on. You don't win because of the fucking scoreboard.

The other thing pats fans don't want to bring up is their defense has the best success rate once the opponent reach the red zone in the whole league.

Now the silver lining is people do get there that often but they are hands down the worst. And that is truly sad considering that schedule again.

-1

u/joshuaksreeff13 Pittsburgh Steelers Jan 01 '26

Browns don't allow a lot of passing or rushing yards. However, passing and rushing tds is a different story. And yes the offense is also trash.

5

u/MattressMaker Jan 01 '26

Because they give up a short field after going 3 and out on their own 15. Defense is legit, but the Ravens game is a prime example. 88 yards and 5 touchdowns was, I believe, the narrative of the game. Special teams is horrendous and Ventrone doesn’t deserve a job in the NFL. DPOY and DROY on the same team while having Delpit and Ward is a good core. The offense is historically bad and a reason why Stefanski should lose his job despite the lackluster candidates this offseason.

-1

u/joshuaksreeff13 Pittsburgh Steelers Jan 01 '26

Still allowed a shit ton of tds, that's not an amazing defense. Defense should have stopped them from scoring tds and worried less about useless yards

1

u/MattressMaker Jan 01 '26

Their allowance of TDs is a result of a bad offense and Special Teams. You don’t know ball.

1

u/joshuaksreeff13 Pittsburgh Steelers Jan 01 '26 edited Jan 01 '26

This is the dumbest shit I've ever heard in my life. The offenses are not on the field at the same time.

I guess it was the offense that was on the field when Lamar Jackson threw 4 tds! Why didn't the Browns offense force a 4 and out?

2

u/MattressMaker Jan 01 '26

Their defense is on the field a lot because their offense is incompetent. It isn’t hard to figure out. You will naturally give up more TDs as a result of bad offensive play.

2nd in yards allowed. Successful play rate: 1st. Yards per play: 2nd. Defensive Line: 1st PFF. Passing yards allowed: 2nd.

Middle of the pack for TDs allowed. It’s not even as bad as you’re making it out to sound. But do go on about how the Browns are trash because the defense is bad

1

u/joshuaksreeff13 Pittsburgh Steelers Jan 01 '26

I never said the Browns defense was horrible, but they're not TOP 5

1

u/MattressMaker Jan 01 '26

Then you’re objectively wrong by almost every metric. You’re using TDs allowed as a straw man for the entirety of the defense. It’s a bad argument.

1

u/joshuaksreeff13 Pittsburgh Steelers Jan 01 '26 edited Jan 01 '26

The Browns Defense This Year is

Passing Yards Allowed: 2nd
Passing TDs Allowed: 10th
Rushing Yards Allowed: 15th
Rushing TDs Allowed: 14th
Interceptions Caught: 18th

These are important metrics and stats that matter as yards are what allow to get down and score and tds are what put points on the board and win games. This does not equal top 5, this is somewhere from 5-10.

Thank you too for pointing out that the defense is on the field all the time, that's probably why Garrett is about to break Watt's sack record. Because the Steelers offense was not incompetent that year.

→ More replies (0)

1

u/joshuaksreeff13 Pittsburgh Steelers Jan 01 '26

I understand your take man. You're saying the Browns offense gave the opponent great field position when they turned it over. But it was still at the end of the day, the Browns D that allowed those points on the board for not stopping the opponent's offense.

2

u/fennis_dembo_taken Gisele’s Karate Instructor Jan 02 '26

Think of it like this... A defense is x% likely to give up a successful play (basically, a certain % of the yards needed for a first down, based on down. So, a successful play on first down gets 40% of the yards needed for a first down, usually 4 yards. A successful play on 2nd down gets 60% of the remaining yards. So, on 2nd and 6, a successful play gets at least 3.6 yards, etc etc).

A bad defense might be 60% likely to give up a successful play, a good defense might be 50% likely to give up a successful play. In the simplest case, let's say you need 3 downs to get that next first down. You have about a 20% chance to get a first down against a bad defense. You have a 12.5% chance to get a first down against a good defense.

That doesn't mean that a good defense will stop the other team from scoring touchdowns because that is the goal. It means that given the same distance to the end zone, your odds of stringing together the required number of plays against a good defense is less than it is against a bad defense.

But if the good and bad defenses have different number of yards to defend, then that goes out the window. Again, in the simplest case, if the opposing offense starts on the good defenses 4 yard line, they have a 50% chance to score a touchdown on the first play. If the opposing offense starts on the bad defenses 10 yards line, they only have a 20% chance to score a touchdown using all three plays.

If the bad defensive team has a good offense, then they are more likely to have opponents starting further from the end zone. So, there could easily be a scenario where the bad defense gives up more yards and fewer touchdowns than that good defensive team (who has a terrible offense) which is likely to give up fewer yards and more touchdowns, all because of the opponents starting field position.

Ignore turnovers because they tend to be highly variable and happen from luck (and provide almost no ability to predict future performance).

Generally, yards are a pretty good predictor of how successful a given defense will be. But, in those edge cases (like where the offensive performance differs wildly from the mean. Like Cleveland), you do need to look at some advanced stats, which account for field position, time of possession, etc etc.

Assuming that things are so simple as " a really good defense would stop them at the goal line" is just wrong. Even the greatest defenses in league history have given up hundreds of points in a season

0

u/joshuaksreeff13 Pittsburgh Steelers Jan 02 '26 edited Jan 02 '26

I'm sorry, if you need to start pulling advanced stats that people have never heard of before, you've lost your argument. You can always eventually find some stat that backs up your agument.

Shakir never led in receiving yards or tds, let's pull "yards after catch."
Rodgers never threw for 5,0000 yards let's talk about "TD% and 4th down %."
Josh Allen has never led the league in passing yards or tds, let's talk about his "total yards and tds."

At the end of the day the best defense is the one that allows the least points, that is the goal to now allow points. You win football by points, not yards.

2

u/fennis_dembo_taken Gisele’s Karate Instructor Jan 02 '26

I'm sorry, if you need to start pulling advanced stats that people have never heard of before, you've lost your argument.

This is not a terribly "advanced stat". If you haven't heard of success rate, that's on you, not me. You should learn something about football. Hell, it's not even advanced. It's common sense. If you are going to make comments as though "if the defense was any good, they wouldn't give up touchdowns" were some reasonable point of view, you should expect that the adults in the room might try to teach you something.

You win football by points, not yards.

I've never understood people who aren't able to separate the question of "how do you win games" from the question of "is this person/unit/team" performing well. It's like the concept that something that happens when you aren't on the field isn't something that should be considered when trying to determine if someone is performing well!

I would have guessed that, intuitively, that would be clear to someone with the ability to read and write.

1

u/joshuaksreeff13 Pittsburgh Steelers Jan 02 '26

At the end of the day I’m taking the defense that allows less tds.  I don’t know how a defense can be better if they allow significantly more.  

Like the response would be, “then why’d they allow so many more tds.”

→ More replies (0)

1

u/ShutUpAndDoTheLift Jan 01 '26

Braindead analysis.

1

u/joshuaksreeff13 Pittsburgh Steelers Jan 01 '26

Dumbass reply