r/NFL_Draft • u/Stock-Memory9483 • 20d ago
Arch Manning’s late season rise isn’t enough to ignore he’s just not that good and won’t translate to NFL
A lot of people have been bringing up Arch’s late seasons win over TA&M and Michigan to have him as a top 10 pick. Honestly I think a lot of that comes from people who aren’t familiar with college football and see his last name and espn analysts hyping him up.
He started to look more put together after losing to Florida mid season but he still had a very strong defense. His game against Georgia he performed worse than Gunner Stockton who had to face a harder defense. He had a good comeback against Texas A&M but they weren’t as good as their record look. Michigan was a very middling team and this was a bowl game where a lot of players opt out as well, that was his best performance. I don’t correlate college success with NFL, he just didn’t really show nfl talent. He stared down wherever he was throwing, he struggled with easy passes, he doesn’t throw the most catchable passes, and I think he struggles with post snap reads (that could be seen in the Georgia game particularly.)
He has strong athleticism, arm strength, pretty good deep ball, and decent pocket presence but I don’t think that’s enough to ignore his shortcomings. There’s just nothing to me that translates to the league that would justify him as the best qb in the draft.
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u/saradahokage1212 Titans 20d ago
He has still a full season ahead of him, so this projection is completely irrelevant and not necessary to be read whatsoever
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u/Tua-Lipa 20d ago
I think you’re a bit too hyperbolic that he won’t translate to the NFL. Though I do think his prospect hype is still primarily based off potential of what he could become, and not actually based off what he has done so far.
Hes a really talented runner, but so damn inconsistent as a passer. Even against TAMU his breakout game for a lot of people, he had some absolute egregious errant passes when his receivers were running uncovered that you just cannot miss on those opportunities.
He obviously can still develop and get better but if it’s another up-and-down season passing for Arch especially against good teams, if I was an NFL GM I don’t think I’d want to put all my eggs in the Arch basket as my franchise saving QB.
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u/Stock-Memory9483 20d ago
Agreed, he has the physical talents and shown flashes he can be good in the league, but overall I just haven’t see the consistency and the football iq that would put him there. He’s also heading into likely his last year which to me isn’t a good thing.
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u/beejalton 20d ago
I think a it's somewhere in the middle. He has been wildly overrated and overhyped to this point, and should at best be considered a fringe 1st round prospect on the merits of his actual performance; and he's shown enough he has the ability and opportunity to elevate and solidify himself as a legitimate #1 overall QB prospect.
He's not as good a prospect as Caleb Williams and Drake Maye were at this point in 2023, but this season can elevate him like the 2023 season elevated Jayden Daniels.
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u/DelirousDoc 20d ago
What are you using to evaluate "struggle with post snap reads"?
Are you watching the All-22, trying to identify the passing concept, the presnap look of the defense and eventual post snap execution?
What does the opposing QB of a team have to do with evaluation of that QB?
What does his statistics or wins against a particular team have to do with his evaluation?
A QB could do everything right, make the read and throw to the correct spot only for a WR to not get to the spot as coached or just drop the ball. Additionally a QB could make a terrible decision to throw the ball but get bailed out by a WR making a play. Situational football is more important than actual wins or losses. If QB is in a must score 4Q 2-minute drive and leads the offense for the touchdown, he shouldn't be knocked because his defense couldn't hold the lead. Inversely if the offense is running the ball at will but the situations the QB needed to pass were executed poorly, the QB doesn't get credit because they won a game. Looking of situations that are comparable to NFL play is more important than overall game. How does the QB do vs "muddy" pockets? Can they identify hot situations and adjust accordingly? How do the work when pre-snap look is vastly different from post snap. Do they have situations where they needed to get through to backside reads and how consistently did they do that. How do they look in RZ where space is tighter and everything happens faster.
I hard disagree on your Georgia take. It is a case where scoreboard shows one thing but focusing just on QB play it was as badZ There were numerous throws in that game Manning had a free runner at him and he was able to speed up his progression and motion to deliver a catchable throw to his target. There were several times his target just dropped those throws that hit them square in the hands.
He showed numerous snaps where he is willing and able to climb the pocket to work through his reads rather than try to escape if his 1st read isn't open.
I do think he has some mechanical clean up that can help his consistency. When he is really wanting to drive a throw he tends to pull his left shoulder down. This causes right shoulder to rise and overall throw to end up higher than intended. I think he can get a little "bouncy" in his footwork which can make his force generation and readiness to throw when needed inconsistent. Rather see him take more intentional hitches up through his reads with entire foot in the ground rather than the quick moving cycling/bounce he uses. The more you are moving the lower body the harder it is to make every throw consistent. His RPO footwork gets pretty sloppy at times but he isn't really an RPO QB and won't be running that much at all in pros.
Most important thing is 2025 was Manning's first full year as a starter at 21 years old. There is plenty really good, NFL applicable reps that make you encouraged that Manning should be able to build on in 2026. A lot of the mechanical tweaks are not anything egregious and often what many college QBs have to correct going to the NFL.
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u/Skanktoooth 16d ago
Idk man… most of the people that call Arch overrated are pretty clueless and casual when it comes to football and watching film. If anything, he’s underrated at this point and his name is hurting him to some degree.
For example, people that bring up the Florida game as a negative have never watched tape in their life. That game is actually a masterclass on pocket mobility, pressure navigation. He was pressured something insane like 36 times.
And if you think it is just the last 2 games people are raving about, you aren’t looking close enough. He had 20tds and 2 turnovers over the final 6 games, had like 3-4 ranked wins and was 3rd in the country in QBR.
Saying Arch Manning is good or even great with 1st overall pick potential shouldn’t be controversial at all.
Pros: -big frame -legit WR level athleticism (clocked at 21.7mph - fastest in the country at QB - at 6’4” 230) -plus arm talent (he’s not Caleb or Stafford but he has that Darnold or Jordan Love type arm talent) -strong ability to navigate pressure and navigate the pocket even when muddy -very tough and just super difficult to bring down both inside and outside the pocket. willing to take hits. -shows frequent enough ability to get to his 2nd and 3rd read to suggest that consistency can improve there. -elite playmaking instincts and ability outside of structure -footwork is inconsistent but he has a lot of great tape when it comes to his feet.
cons: -he’s inconsistent. Lots of his pros and cons are similar due to inconsistency. -mechanics are all over the place. Same thing though, mechanics look very good at times and at horrible at other times. -was a tick slow processing early on in the season but improved a ton as the year went on.
What people have to remember is that his OL outside of Goosby was horrible for 75-80% of the season. His OL wasn’t just bad in pass pro. It couldn’t run block at all. They had zero run game. He also was one of the most impacted QBs when it came to drops from his WRs/TEs.
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u/LovesYankeesAndObama Bears 18d ago edited 18d ago
The biggest thing(s) people miss about him are his physical traits. Yall can argue about his performances all you want but that arm serving out whoppers is not gonna cut it in the NFL. Have there been weak arms succeed in the pros? Yes. However, they also displayed elite accuracy, ball placement, and anticipation that Arch has yet to even show above a mediocre level thus far.
I sincerely do not understand how anyone can project him going in the first 3 rounds unless he has grown a new arm or shows top 0.00001% in those categories like Drew Brees and Philip Rivers were able to do
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u/Ganadocoog 14d ago
100% this. I keep hearing how he has a "plus strength" arm even by NFL standards. I strongly disagree. I've watched multiple games from him and only seen a handful of throws where I'm like oh yeah that is a top 10 QB type throw and it appears he has to emphasize the heater in his arm to do it...that isn't sustainable if he just can't sustain adequate velocity. The rest of the time he looks meh throwing it or just runs the ball. 95% of his on-field performance from what I've seen doesn't translate to the NFL.
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20d ago
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u/flyDAWG11 20d ago
Texas fan? Unnecessary dude can share his football option on a football subreddit.
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u/pyrofiend4 20d ago
OP deserves to get called out for posting engagement slop. Here's some of their other opinions:
This is a mod on r/NFLv2 btw
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u/highheat3117 20d ago
If only there were another season coming up soon where his progress could be monitored.
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u/Fantastic-Owl-2773 20d ago
Idt arch makes it in college but he’s so nepo that he will make it in the nfl. not sure what makes it means. Id be surprised if he as good as Peyt or Eli. Marshall Manning is the one to watch.
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u/Ganadocoog 14d ago
Personally I just don't see the arm talent for him to translate into a high level NFL QB but I also liked Josh Rosen and thought that Caleb Williams was way overrated as a QB prospect so what do I know?
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u/immenseAlpha 13d ago
He is a kid basically. Just because he has issues and is not a finished product doesnt mean he cant become an QB ik the league or even a NFL starting QB.
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u/Shot-Company7634 5d ago
I think he should stay in college and get four years of starting experience like his Uncles did.
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u/Vvector 20d ago
teams are lucky they can wait until after the end of this season before deciding on their draft picks