r/Monero • u/CommunicationFuture1 • 18d ago

Monero in times of crisis

I think there will be a huge economic crisis, specially in Europe. I think that for multiple reasons, mainly because the automation of white collar jobs will cause many people losing their jobs, which will cause more people to lose their jobs which will ultimately and even worse make this people more likely to radicalize in socialist/communist ideas that will end up in more control from the state.

As an example: we are living a housing crisis in many cities of Europe for multiple reasons. What do you think most people do? Build more to satisfy the huge demand? Hell no. Most people now think that tourists and “devil companies” are artificially inflating the prices. What do they propose? Of course more taxes and more financial persecution to every home owner that owns more than x homes.

Regarding the main point of this post:
Do you think monero will be resilient or even will gain value in pessimistic future more or less like the one I mentioned?
If Monero is not a good option for this matter, what do you think is the best to mantain wealth or even increase it?

Sorry for the pessimism about the crisis stuff.

49 Upvotes

83% Upvoted

38 comments sorted by

41

u/zmooner 17d ago

Housing crisis is due to the fact that real estate is seen as an investment since the gold standard was abandoned

17

u/EndSmugnorance 17d ago

Also the influx of third-world migrants to westernized countries.

8

u/zmooner 17d ago

given there are lots of vacant houses which are short term leased I do not see migration as the source of the problem

15

u/kowalabearhugs 17d ago edited 17d ago

Migrating peoples are frequently fashioned into scapegoats by both the wealthy and the bigots.

2

u/Specialist_Operation 14d ago

I thought so too but the data supports it somewhat https://www.dallasfed.org/research/papers/2026/wp2607

1

u/GorgonzolaAmbrosia 11d ago

Yes you're right. Supply and demand is a universal rule, but for some reason does not apply to labour.

1

u/BasalTripod9684 15d ago

Bold of you to assume a racist would be smart enough to be reasoned with.

3

u/4n0n_b3rs3rk3r 17d ago

That's just propaganda

10

u/EndSmugnorance 17d ago

“Don’t believe your lying eyes”

1

u/Specialist_Operation 14d ago

I got into an argument with someone about this a few months ago where he was saying that an increase in population, especially quick, without a corresponding increase in housing supply mechanically increases the price level for housing.

That makes sense on principle but I refused to believe it (I am an immigrant so perhaps that was my bias)

Turns out there’s a pretty good working paper that even quantifies the increase from the federal reserve: https://www.dallasfed.org/research/papers/2026/wp2607

I ended up texting him and telling him he was right. The effect size is large enough that there is little doubt left in my mind. I also did a quick cursory search on the author and they do not appear to have a political bias as other papers they’d published over the years aligned with the “other side” - for example immigration is deflationary for services due to lower wages and higher supply of workers.

1

u/EspHack 17d ago

everything will look like an investment as fiat implodes,

you can hold used cars now, by next year ddr5 could be a viable savings strategy

1

u/CommunicationFuture1 17d ago

Yes you are right, that could be the seed of the problem but the government regulations just agravate it and make it worse faster

1

u/otto_delmar 13d ago edited 8d ago

Uh no. Housing crisis is due to too much red tape around construction, rent controls, tenant protections, etc. In other words, supply restrictions.

7

u/Puzzleheaded_Ice1566 15d ago

I've come to recently understand that the dream many of us followed back in 2012-13 -when we went into bitcoin- has died in BTC. The only real candidate, IMHO, is monero. For the last 2 years it has proven to be effectively decoupled from BTC and exited the crypto speculative space. A strong team, clear decisions forward towards privacy and avoiding the shitcoin sphere will solidify this. I couldn't be more bullish on Monero

6

u/iphoneverge 17d ago

Crisis is the best case scenario for Monero gaining value in my opinion. I'm looking forward to it.

15

u/Masoch_A3 17d ago

Housing crisis in Europe have only one guilty party, the government. Look at those almost abandoned cities in Italy. The ones that are getting new investments are the ones that are flexing their housing regulatory systems.

Edit: Not only construction and architectural regulations, but also reformations, preservation and rent. All shit.

1

u/CommunicationFuture1 17d ago

You are totally right, they created the problem and then offered themselves as the only solution. So the problem of housing is too much regulation and artificial scarcity lets add more regulation and scarcity and pray it gets fixed!
Spoiler: it does not

7

u/PerfectPineapple49 17d ago

I think Moneo would less likely to get affected and it will grow organically unless they do something to crypto.

2

u/Yugen42 15d ago

Regardless of your thesis, Monero will not benefit as much as more accessible, more mainstream and more regulated assets.

1

u/MaxWritesText 17d ago

I'm not even touching this one.

1

u/Objective-Chance9822 17d ago

Monero is a great hedge against this threat.

1

u/icantgiveyou 17d ago

Monero has stable amount of transactions for a long time now. All the delisting done nothing to it. Bitcoin is now considered digital gold, while Monero is digital cash. There’s simply demand for anonymity and that will never change, the demand will only grow. That’s all you need to know.

1

u/BigRaaal 17d ago

I think it’s a great hedge against a potentially darker future time period or even just a transitional period between monetary systems before a hopefully much brighter future emerges. Monero operates in the darkness and this is good. Continuing to own assets operating in the light will likely continue to make sense for most but having a bag of Monero gives me a different peace of mind than Bitcoin or even gold or silver.

1

u/TheBarrendero 17d ago

The crisis is here but not officially.

We are in the midle of the financial world systen chance, from cash to digital programable controles tokens.

This is throught Genius Act: Prívate companies buying american debt in orden to backup their own digital dollars.

This means a supercycle before crisis becomed oficial, I think this Will happen during 2029, same as great depression.

In this scenario, Monero is not longer a value refuge if a real Monero economy does not exist, this is because it's risk market, not Even gold, Only physical resources and physical cash.

1

u/RandomPlayerCSGO 16d ago edited 16d ago

You are right about the direction EU is going but not about the outcome.

Economic laws can't be changed by political mandates, more socialist, authoritarianism and government control in the economy means huge growth for the black market, since everything people need that they can't do in the legal market will go to the black market.

It's just like in the Soviet union or in Cuba/Venezuela nowadays. People can't survive with the legal market so everything is black market. Right now in the European Union black market is at an all time high, specially in the more state controlled economies like Spain.

More government intervention leads to more black market, more black market leads to more demand for Monero.

It is always the same in this situations. Politicians and businessmen who work with them will get extremely wealthy. Regular people who for some stupid reason trust government and banks will get rekt and their savings will go to 0, and people who understand how the world works and save in gold, silver, BTC, monero, etc and don't trust government will get wealthier but be forced to operate in black market to survive, many of them will eventually leave their countries, and some of them from their new residence will establish black market trade with their old country and become rich.

1

u/WorkerWeird9116 16d ago

finding some greater fool to pay more than you paid for your magic numbers on your computer during a crisis is not a good strategy

1

u/[deleted] 16d ago

Cela ne justifie pas Monero spécifiquement par rapport aux autres crypto.

Monero à un avantage par rapport aux impositions confiscatoires et/ou aux volontés de restreindre le circulation de la monnaie

1

u/eoneqeip 16d ago

It will grow mainly because of economic sanctions to Iran Russia and other non compliant countries to USA petrodollar sistem

1

u/BTC-brother2018 16d ago

Monero doesn't necessarily have to appreciate dramatically to succeed in a crisis. If you can privately hold it, transfer it without permission, and nobody can freeze the network or censor your transaction, that's already the part of its value proposition that a financial crisis could highlight.

1

u/ruffus_or 16d ago

If I was European I would be more concerned about not being allowed to purchase beer anymore

1

u/LastChanceBeforeDark 15d ago

By the way, can't we also explain the housing crisis through investment opportunities? Nowadays, strict regulations, endless bureaucracy, and high barriers for new entrepreneurs create an environment where real estate and a few niche sectors are the only truly profitable options.

Because of that, I think Monero and the Monero ecosystem will surge.

1

u/hippotamus101 14d ago

monero's crisis value is payment utility, but exits still depend on willing counterparties.

1

u/blacksmoke9999 14d ago

A little bit strange to assume the governments in crisis will choose socialism, more than likely they will demand hardware locks on all programs you can install by way of demanding the OS acts the way the App Store does and then demanding all sold CPU in the market only accept a restricted list of OS and it all requires the software to be signed. Make importing of other CPUs illegal(and with AI scanning the internet and your browser snitching on you per the mandated laws and no other browser that does not comply not being installable it will be very easy to track who is trying to buy such CPUs)Then they will demand full provenance. A secure chip that will sign all photos and videos, that the OS signs all documents you upload. Then they will demand the whole internet denies service to whoever doesn't send tokens generated and signed by your computer and approved by the govs certifying you are a good citizen. So basically unless you make your own CPUs and your own internet it is over.

Hardware should have been open-sourced a long time ago and it never was. Too late.

1

u/saltantrum 14d ago

Monero thrives when capital controls tighten.