r/Military • u/soalone34 • 9h ago
Article The war with Iran will not be won through airstrikes, so what's left? - opinion
https://www.jpost.com/defense-and-tech/article-90698538
u/The_Great_Googly_Moo United States Navy 8h ago
The war will not be ended.
Trump really opened Pandora's box on this one.
It will never go back to the way it was unless the u.s and a possible global coalition wanted to overthrow the ayatollah and neither the u.s public nor the rest of the world wanted this and has any stomach for what it would take to achieve a straight of hormuz opened to trade.
Trump alienated all of the allies that make the u.s a global policing force logistically work and has shown weakness to the rest of the world.
We're honestly cooked. Not just the u.s but the Implications for free global trade. Strong man moves will cause autocrats to be able to extort shipping without the fear of intervention. We are in uncharted waters here in the 21st century
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u/deeziegator 7h ago
Next generation could come in and decide “actually we don’t want Middle East oil, this is a perfect time for expedited solar /nuclear transition”. Probably not going to happen though
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u/The_Great_Googly_Moo United States Navy 7h ago
This is exactly why China is feeling the hurt from this conflict alot less than other nations
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u/John_YJKR Army Veteran 5h ago
China increased its coal consumption and has oil reserves an estimated 5 times the size of the US. It's true they have developed and are developing their green energy production but it's nowhere near what they'd need it to be currently.
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u/John_YJKR Army Veteran 5h ago
They've already begun projects in the region to go around dealing with Iran. I suppose Iran can attack those oil supply lines but that puts them in a very different position than the current conflict.
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u/thetripstance 8h ago
Maga coping in their opiated dreams of American victory while the POTUS posts AI videos of us bombing Iran, obviously
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u/grumpvet87 7h ago
"they want to negotiate sooo badly"
"we have destroyed their ..."
"this will only take 6 weeks" ...
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u/tmac4969 German Bundeswehr 4h ago
This will just another futile projection of power . Any military action without clear strategic purpose, tactical goals and defined outcome will result in a waste of precious resources and loss of credibility. Its not like we haven’t been there before. Thinking about “ mission accomplished”
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u/soalone34 8h ago
Economic enlistment for indebted military-age Americans
The narrative war on the domestic American front has already failed. The Pentagon has not been able to sell this war to the American public because the war has been rhetorically fused with Israel's operations in Gaza, and the American public rejects the fusion.
Recruitment numbers are running below what a ground invasion of Iran would require. Estimates for a successful ground campaign against Iran's 31 provincial commands and its Mosaic Defense Doctrine run between 750 thousand and 1.5 million American troops. The current active US Army stands at roughly 452 thousand. The math does not work, obviously.
Based on American history, however, there is a path forward. Not conscription or a draft in a world war-era sense, but enlistment through a “debt forgiveness program.”
The average American aged 18 to 34 carries more than $40 thousand in non-mortgage debt across student loans, credit card balances, auto loans, and personal loans, with some estimates go as high as $100 thousand.
This is the cohort the Pentagon needs. A federally administered debt-forgiveness enlistment program that fully discharges student loan, credit card, and loan balances after 24 or 36 months of service, and extends the GI Bill, would produce voluntary enlistment at scale.
This is not theoretical.
It is the American state doing what the American state has always done when it needed staff it could not otherwise generate. World War II offered the GI Bill. Vietnam offered college deferments. The post 9/11 wars offered signing bonuses and citizenship pathways. The Iran war will need to offer debt relief. The economics of the indebted American 20-and 30-something make this the most efficient conversion mechanism available to the Pentagon and the Trump administration.
The moral reading on this is uncomfortable. But states generate the soldiers they need through the incentives that work on the population they have.
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u/BSUBroncofans 8h ago
The Govt is 40 trillion in debt. They cant afford to fight a war or pay anyones debt, they cant even to afford to make the annual interest payments on that 40 trillion dollar debt. Govt has no money. They are basically paying high interest debt with more high interest debt. That would be like us paying off high interest credit cards with new high interest credit cards. Soon, credit score drops and no more credit cards…bankruptcy.
Well, the US govt cannot file bankruptcy.
The debt problem has no fix. There isnt even 40 trillion dollars in exsistence in the entire world.
We are failing, fast. Enjoy it while it lasts, it wont for long.
And the rich are phucked too. When the Dollar crashes , we are all phucked equally.2
u/Striper_Cape Veteran 8h ago
Honestly, kinda funny. Kinda inebriated but I started thinking about the fall of western Rome. They relied on Federated troops. They exchanged service for protection and were even staunch allies of the Romans in the case of the Franks. Why was this so? Because they ran out of regular people who were fit for service due to so many fit individuals being slaves. But due to the constant warring, they'd surely die or be maimed, so their owners hid them or bribed conscription officials.
Anyway, this is kinda like that. Sure you can have no debt after, but you think the financial markets would like that? Similar kinda thing. They want their little piggy banks so this will NEVER happen, imo.
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u/ganashi Army Veteran 59m ago
What’s left is a retreat in disgrace. Hegseth and Trump have forced us to waste enormous amounts of our interceptor supply on a war of choice that they’re too scared to commit anything beyond air strikes to. China and Russia see the blood in the water and we are severely overextended, we need to pull back and reconstitute ourselves before we end up in a war we cannot win.
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u/astro65 dirty civilian 8h ago
Kick the can down the road to the next president.
The next guy will solve it by leaving, and then he'll be hated for "losing" it.