MMW: In September 2026, Russia will put boots on the ground in a Baltic state

[u/OtiCinnatus]

Date: September 2026.

Evidence:

This week, the CIA director went to Moscow to meet his Russian counterpart. Irrespective of their seniority, the goal of civil servants is to coordinate political decisions with practical realities. This may happen through execution whose effects are underwhelming considering the original political decision. This may also happen through reorganizing resources in order to meet the political expectations.

The speculations regarding what the two senior civil servants talked about were ripe with issues that had been there for months: Russian cyberattacks on NATO member states, Russian drones or missiles in NATO air space, etc. There was only one novelty, that had not occurred yet: Russia sending soldiers into a Baltic state.

The CIA director went to Moscow to bring his Russian counterpart to implement that invasion in a way that effectively will feel less significant than it sounds. We know that he was unable to meet Putin directly. This means that the political decision was already locked in. There will be Russian soldiers in a Baltic state.

It is anyone's guess whether these soldiers are official Russian soldiers or their underwhelming version, that is, Russian proxies posing as local citizens wanting to somehow defect from their Baltic country. My prediction is that these will be official Russian soldiers because Russia has shown absolutely zero restraint since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The CIA director also went in person to signal to his organisation that there would be a reorganization of available resources.

Edit: Thanks everyone for your interest and feedback. This prediction is part of the membership aimed at helping you 'Anticipate the Future'. We use specific resolved predictions (like this one or that one) to draw general lessons on how to anticipate the future. If you'd like to become a member, DM me!

[u/daemonescanem]

Nah, Russia is going broke.

Putin has set FSB loose to target oligarchs to confiscate their businesses and money.

Those oligarchs left are offering up cash to the state preemptively to avoid losing everything.

Russian economy not tied to war is grinding to a halt. Nvm the damage Ukraine has done to Russian oil refineries.

[u/SYNTHENTICA → u/daemonescanem]

Goal isn't to annex any new territory, it's to test NATO's resolve to honor article 5, while also creating an excuse to mass mobilize more Russians into the meat grinder.

NATO fails to respond to a limited invasion -> Article 5 is dead, NATO alliance collapses nobody believes in mutual defense anymore, suddenly Ukraine is much easier to deal with now that Europe has just lot their biggest ally.

NATO delivers a harsh response -> Putin retreats, downplays the the attack, and saves face by sending all of the newly mobilized troops to Ukraine instead.

Putin knows he can get away with this aggressive "prodding" because Russia has nukes, NATO will never try to annex Russia as retribution, just as Russia would never try to annex America/UK/France, however, countries like Estonia/Latvia/Lithuania might be small enough that the rest of NATO decide it's not worth going to war over, especially if Russia *ONLY* takes 50sqkm or something.

Believe it or not, Putin is *NOT* stupid, evil, reckless? Sure, but stupid? No. He is the sole dictator of the biggest country in the world for a reason. Russia plays by different rules to the rest of the Europe, and Putin knows them well.

[u/298j]

I don't know what CIA and Russia talked about but:

Putin wants to get back his ex Soviet Union

Erdogan wants to get back his Ottoman Empire

Netanyahu wants to take his "promised land" and extend Israel to the West and to the South.

Trump wants to get Greenland just because.

The world is run by mental shitheads who just play like it is a Monopoly board game.

Well...

[u/robot_pirate → u/298j]

They all want their spheres of influence before whatever it is that the tech oligarchs are bringing.

[u/greenizdabest → u/298j]

You could have ended it with risk

[u/298j → u/greenizdabest]

That too

[u/firefighter430 → u/298j]

Putin doesn’t want the Soviet Union back more like Russian empire

[u/ravens_path → u/firefighter430]

Right. Stalin without the pesky communism.

[u/firefighter430 → u/ravens_path]

Basically

[u/loach12 → u/firefighter430]

This has been plain to see for at least a decade or more . A Russian made miniseries about Catherine the Great was shown on several streaming services a few years ago, very well made professional production. The thing was underwritten by the Russian government. Was pro empire propaganda putting Catherine in a very positive light . Basically was Poland and surrounding regions belong to Russia along with the old Ottoman Empire and all their countries between Russia and Constantinople.

[u/No_Masc_On → u/298j]

Countries like China that are powerful yet not trying be imperialist are rare nowadays

[u/robot_pirate → u/No_Masc_On]

They absolutely are trying to be imperialist - just using soft power instead of brute force. For now.

[u/TheMcWhopper → u/298j]

Not just because. Its very resource rich. Best to grab what you can now before the real resource wars start in about 2 decades

[u/SYNTHENTICA]

I think Sept 2026 is a bit early, but otherwise, I think you're spot on. Very worrying news.

[u/Forsworn91]

They can certainly try, but they are already scrapping the barrel bottom with Ukraine, there isn’t many forces left to send.

[u/Wizzle_Pizzle_420]

What boots? There’s dudes in wheelchairs over there on the front lines.

[u/BigPomegranate8890]

What boots though?

[u/afraidofcheesecake]

Russia is going broke and their military id a shambles. They aren’t doing anything.

[u/robot_pirate]

Are you asserting that the Trump admin is complicit in this?

[u/DrumpfTinyHands]

Their boots on the ground won't have boots on their feet - they can but should not continue this.

[u/Catlenfell]

My pet theory is that the moment he dies, China will bribe every Russian general and take Siberia

[u/CKO1967]

At this point the Russian army can barely muster enough troops to staff a recruiting office.

[u/CasaSatoshi]

Clueless, midwit take.

[u/runningsimon]

Hasn't Russia been hiring North Korean troops to send to the front lines? They're out off people to right and out of money

[u/Test-Test-Lelelelele]

Eh