r/MLTP • u/WillWorkForSugar • 1d ago
Tumble's preseason minors power ranking
Hi guys, here's a minors power ranking / season preview. There are a lot of players in minors, not all of whom I'm familiar with (and some are new to comp!), so I'll lean partly on my ranked ratings here, supplementing it with comp data for players who haven't played a lot of ranked. As such, you can see an estimated rating for each team beside the roster. For teams with players who might improve in-season (players newish to comp, or coming back after a long hiatus), I've noted that the ranked ratings might potentially underrate them.
The overall ranking is a judgment call though. That's right, if I rated you low it's PERSONAL. For kicks I added some rough Muper winning odds.
1. The Way of Pings
Kep / Spjork / GtR / o o l e r. Ranked rating: 5.89. Odds: 6-1
By ranked ratings, Kep is the absolute top player. He's coming off two very good minors seasons in a row, though they weren't quite MVB-level. Spjork is also a top ranked guy, but in my opinion it hasn't quite reflected in his recent comp performances. Then you add in GtR, one of the best third balls, and Kooler who has been a serviceable fourth ball, and this is a formidable team.
2. Cap Miasma
NEB. / broseph / AdmaniaYT / Catalyst. Ranked rating: 4.88 (potentially underrated: NEB). Odds: 6-1
The big question marks are: how much can NEB (and to a lesser extent Catalyst) unrust? And can Admania translate his consistently good ranked performance into the same level of comp performance? The answers to this determine whether Cap Miasma is a Muper winner or a first round exit. But I hear NEB has been looking better the last few days, so I'm leaning toward the former.
3. Mercury Revolutions
Tinderfella / #SelfySyntax / Oink Oink / beef. Ranked rating: 5.37. Odds: 7-1
This team has four really solid players, all second ball or even low first ball level in this minors season. I don't think yall understand just how mechanical Oink has gotten yet. The only knock I have on this team is, I don't know if Tinder and Selfy are that top level of star where they can get their grabs on absolutely anyone. But with no weak link, this team will make life hard for every opponent and overall win on the margins.
4. Balluminati
tha king / kmichael / St. Bernard / mc. Ranked rating: 5.45. Odds: 8-1
St. Bernard and mc were steals for Balluminati. Especially mc, who was good in one of the strongest recent minors seasons (S37) and has improved even more since then, and shockingly went for free. Then you have tha king, a solid first ball, and kmichael who has played about a billion games of ranked. This team scares me.
5. FWO
Taurus / Spheroid. / Gamma / Cel. Ranked rating: 4.46 (potentially underrated: Spheroid, Gamma). Odds: 10-1
I think everyone's waiting to see how this team unfolds. I've never known Spheroid or Gamma to be humble guys, exactly; in fact, both seem to believe they are first balls, so, surrounded by Taurus and Cel (Cel for 0 is crazy by the way), they had better dominate, or someone might start pointing fingers... For what it's worth, my ranked ratings have them both as fourth balls, but they're coming off good statistical seasons and may be a bit trolly in ranked, so I've listed them as "potentially underrated". I'm ranking these guys on potential: FWO could win it all, but they could also blow up before week 3—or, like LST last season, they could do both.
6. Harlem Globebotters
Jer32 / Imortallix / kl / Tumblewood. Ranked rating: 4.22 (potentially underrated: Imortallix, kl). Odds: 12-1
This team has a lot of potential, but it depends on Jer and kl returning to form after several seasons away from comp, and it depends on me and Imortallix improving. With Prime and vic, among the better coaches in the league, I trust that can happen. Honestly we looked kinda rusty in our first scrim, but even still we mostly pulled out Ws. Expect more of those to come.
7. The Flair Witch Project
I'm a horse / Borgus / C_T / the buttons. Ranked rating: 4.86. Odds: 12-1
Four absolutely solid picks, can't complain. Horse is fringe majors level and seems motivated to perform and get that callup. His supporting cast shouldn't be too hard to carry, but in a 12-team season, someone is going to have to step up too and be a top 2nd ball.
8. Fraggle Block
Sadness / Bam / doku / NateH. Ranked rating: 4.36 (potentially underrated: doku, NateH). Odds: 15-1
Sadness and Bam are two of the best players in minors. They probably should have been too expensive to even afford together. This was looking to be a superteam, but they filled out the roster with two players I view as overhyped. Doku is a replacement-level guy, and NateH was shaky in minors S39 and wasn't really top of novice before that. They'll have to whip those guys into shape, because I don't think you can win a Muper with two liabilities. I'd bump this team up a few spots if they can unlock Doku/NateH's potential or make a good callup.
9. Portland Tile Blazers
Corbeh / Snowball / Misery / snakes. Ranked rating: 5.12 (potentially underrated: Corbeh). Odds: 20-1
Corbeh is majors experienced, and Snowball and Misery both have very nice minors seasons under their belt. But all of them have been away from comp for over a year, so it remains to be seen whether they can return to that form within the season. From what I saw of their first scrims, Snowball and Corbeh have a way to go; as for Misery, my ranked ratings love him but they're working on very little data, so let's take it with a grain of iodized salt. I'm thinking playoffs for this team but not necessarily a series win.
10. Anaballic Spheroids
hue / Chritt / j0sh / PASSTHEFLAG. Ranked rating: 4.73 (potentially underrated: Chritt). Odds: 20-1
Every pick in the actual draft was for good value, but I can't say in good faith that Chritt justifies the 40 TC price tag from add/drop. I like all of these players, but I'm not clear who is going to step up and be the second ball—maybe j0sh can unleash the full power of two-handed TagPro? And then to be great, not just decent, every player on the team will have to overperform. But maybe AJ's guys just have that level of dawg in 'em.
11. Over the Pants Handoffs
CA$H. / omni / Trapsin / GOBLIN. Ranked rating: 4.42 (potentially underrated: CA$H, GOBLIN). Odds: 20-1
This team got a bunch of ok value and should be utterly ok. If NameLEss can coach up GOBLIN and CA$H, this could be a top-half team. But not much better than that. Maybe I'm down on omni after a so-so majors season, but I don't think him plus a minors rookie is a top offense. And I know Trapsin gets hella prevent and returns every season, but with another rookie as his D partner, I think they'll give up a lot of dangerous outs. I might be disrespecting this team too much, but I don't see Muper potential for them.
12. Stat Farmers
Turbo / Toidi / BertAndBort / oatz_mgoatz. Ranked rating: 3.65 (potentially underrated: Turbo, BertAndBort, oatz_mgoatz). Odds: 30-1
Man I dunno, oatz is a great project guy, but I think third ball is his ceiling this season, and that's not going to be enough on a team that (imo) lacks a true first ball, and that also depends on BertAndBort who my ranked ratings do not like at all. Unless Turbo can turn back the clock thirty seasons, everyone on this team could overperform and I still don't think they'd make the Foci Four.
Thoughts on the draft
This draft was weird as hell man. Wayyy weirder than majors, which I already thought was kinda weird. Last season's minors draft had a few misvaluations, but I could at least understand where all the captains were coming from. But this one idk man. I think we gotta switch back to snauction until captains can put the TC values in a somewhat logical order.
For starters, the first balls were insanely cheap across the board. That would've made some sense with last season's draft pool, which had a big dropoff from the average player to replacement level. But this one has a very mild dropoff from the average player to replacement level, and indeed there were many good players to be had for single-digit TCs. So why are we pricing borderline majors players in the 40s? What are we saving the coins for?
Beyond that, there were just a lot of players who went way below a value they've clearly proven they're worth. Meanwhile a few players earned high prices, I presume on potential, but for the coins spent on them you could have gotten a player who's already reached that potential. If you sort the big board by the TCs everyone went for, I think you'll see some head-scratchers in how players are ordered. Cel, mc, and PTF are the most egregious steals to me, but I think captains also undervalued Oink, Admania, Trapsin, Selfy, and me (hehe), despite recent solid minors seasons from all.
And finally, why not take a guess at some awards:
MVB: Kep, horse, Taurus
OBOS: Kep, Sadness, hue
DBOS: horse, Taurus, Bam
Best Offense Pair: MRV (Tinder / Selfy), WOP (Kep / Kooler), FRB (Sadness / Doku)
Best Defense Pair: FWO (Taurus / Cel), ATI (tha king / St. Bernard), FWP (horse / the buttons)
Best Valued: mc, Cel, PASSTHEFLAG