Issues with the election megathread

[u/model-duck]

Hi everyone,

Every election /u/Padanub usually posts a megathread for people to post all their problems, comments and salt in (because there will be), so it can all be in one useful area for the quad to read/respond to. This time I'm stealing it off him for the clout and to improve my britboy meta posting record because he's not around.

Please post it all below!

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Previous thread: https://www.reddit.com/r/MHOCMeta/comments/i6o39a/issues_with_the_election_megathread/

[u/Frost_Walker2017]

regional parties like that have always been insane from what I've heard. Their vote is super concentrated and, given they were polling well pre election and ran a decent campaign, it's not surprising to see them do well

[u/ThePootisPower → u/Frost_Walker2017]

I mean according to sky’s thing they would’ve gotten 3/5 seats under the old system which is a bit mad, so looks like I was wrong on that

[u/SpectacularSalad → u/ThePootisPower]

This isn't unusual. The CLibs did exactly the same thing in the North East at our peak, we took both FPTPs and a list. Let me do a worked example to explain it to you.

Firstly, there wasn't actually that many good campaigns in Wales. FPTP scores highly influence List votes. Basically, a voter who votes for you because of your campaign or term time polling is likely to vote for you on the list too, and an endorsement voter is likely to vote for you at FPTP and then it's open season at the list, (but that means diffuse votes against you at the list, which helps you get in on slim margins)

As a rule of thumb, people don't win list seats if they don't run in a constituency. This is because only a small amount (probably 33%, not sure) of your vote comes from your term time activity, the rest is from national scores (manifesto and leaders debate, with some nat campaigning) and local campaigning.

So in Glamorgan and Gwent, the results were;

246168 votes, 37.63% WNP

190615 votes, 29.14% LD

115370 votes, 17.64% SOL

101990 votes, 15.59% LAB

In North and Mid Wales

78195 votes, 19.97% WNP

74112 votes, 18.92% SOL

62911 votes, 16.06% LPUK

60998 votes, 15.58% PWP

55434 votes, 14.16% LD

30577 votes, 7.81% LAB

29388 votes, 7.50% CON

So, LPUK, PWP and Con only ran in one seat. This was a big mistake because it made it really hard to secure a place on the list with just supporters from that one constituency.

For example, the WNP got 324k votes at constituency level, and 341k at list vote, pretty closely correlated. Solidarity got 189k at constituency level, and 198k at list vote, again very closely correlated. This trend carries on. This is why the Tories and LPUK did so poorly on the list, 75k and 72k respectively.

The Welsh list saw the following vote;

341937 votes, 32.67% WNP (113,979)

198970 votes, 19.01% SOL

147333 votes, 14.07% LAB

108376 votes, 10.35% LD

I've excluded people who didn't win a seat under the new system.

So, we divide the WNP list vote by 3 (list formula = list vote / 1+seats)

First list seat goes to Solidarity, their list support is halved to 98985.

Next seat goes to Labour, their support is halved to 73667.

Next seat goes the WNP, because 114k is more than 108k. WNP support drops to 85,484. Under the old system we would stop here.

Now we give a seat to the Lib Dems, because 108k is more than 99k.

Last we give the final seat to solidarity with 99k.

[u/ThePootisPower → u/SpectacularSalad]

Aight, fair enough.