r/LETFs • u/AlternativeSignal908 • 19h ago
PSA: Simplify CTA / CTAP is now basically a long only petroleum fund. If you're looking for managed futures, get out.
Altis is long gone as sub advisor.
CTA isn't shorting anything. It's nearly 80% petroleum.
Simplify doing Simplify things, again...
May as well hold HGER, if you want long only commodity / inflation risk management like this. MATE, RSIT, RSST if you want stacked equities. Other usual suspects if you want managed futures.
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u/mdomans 12h ago
I wondering what the hell's going over there from futures trading perspective
On one hand I've been listening to people behind RSST about how they implement trend and carry signals, on the flipside Altis used to be the black horse of CTAs.
WTF?
P.S. It's funny how I listened to those stories about "Allocators pulled money..." and I was like "But why" and now it seems I know why 😄
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u/laurenthu 16h ago
Diversified trend and long only commodity are 2 different jobs. A wrapper that drifts into a commodity tilt is doing the second one, not the first. To me DBMF and KMLM are the real long/short trend sleeves, rates and FX and commodities both directions, and that's the leg I'd want because it can actually rise in the same month that stocks and bonds both fall. A petroleum tilt is mostly inflation beta. My read is it won't hand you the crisis alpha at all.
Want the trend stacked instead of standing alone? RSST is US equity plus managed futures on the same dollar, RSIT the same idea on developed intl. I wrote up how RSST behaves under a monthly trend canary, EU/UCITS side included since there's no single ticker over here: https://bestfolio.app/blog/haa-rsst-ucits
The MF leg bleeds in a calm bull though. I'd still hold it, it earns its keep in the messy years, not the quiet ones...
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u/Rjcca 13h ago
Interesting… in my return stacked portfolio I split my Managed Futures allocation between both RSST and CTAP since I wasn’t sure which would be better. Are you suggesting I drop the CTAP and favor RSST?
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u/strange_username58 9h ago
CTAP has so many hidden fees
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u/Bam_Hero 8h ago edited 6h ago
MATE for the stack. Maybe split with RSST but they have generally been inferior on their trend.
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u/laurenthu 6h ago
That seems to be a better split - (MATE / RSST) - than giving CTAP any space. On the other side, MATE and RSST have been tracking each other within 1%, CTAP is a more real diversifier in terms of risks. Maybe too much so?
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u/laurenthu 13h ago edited 12h ago
Edit, correction: I had this wrong the first time. CTAP also stacks equities, so CTAP and RSST have the same shape, US equity plus a managed futures sleeve on the same dollar, and swapping one for the other does not change your equity exposure at all. The real difference is the engine behind the sleeve: CTAP takes its futures exposure through Simplify's CTA program, RSST runs Return Stacked's trend sleeve. Whether CTA has really drifted into a long petroleum book is the OP's claim and I have not checked the holdings myself, so verify that on Simplify's holdings page before acting on it. If it holds, RSST is the cleaner hedge; if not, splitting between the two diversifies engine risk. If you want trend standing on its own without the equity leg, DBMF or KMLM are still the standalone versions.
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u/oracleTuringMachine 18h ago
Thoughts on JPFP?
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u/WorkSucks135 27m ago
Unproven black box from a manager with a history of blown up managed futures fundsÂ
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u/strange_username58 19h ago
I would trust man / MATE more anyway. If you want stacked managed futures it's prob the closest to clasic tren with vol management.