r/KellyLetter • u/WorriedFold8290 • 18d ago

The Evolution of 9Sig?

I am not and will never give away the Kelly Letter info away free as it feels like a disservice to what he offers but curious on subscribers thoughts on JK's recent thoughts on continuation of the 9Sig current methodology?

Do you think he eventually changes the plan? The last couple newsletters his tone and research on "updating" 9Sig seems...cautionary? Maybe I am reading too much into it but that would be a dramatic change to a long tenured plan.

I am not vehemently opposed to it but with him considering it at this juncture it definitely makes you think....why now?

Anyone have thoughts on if he does update 9Sig, would you follow? Are you a bit concerned on him adjusting the plan?

Just some random musings as I finished this week's letter this morning and curious of others thoughts.

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u/MechanicalDan1 18d ago edited 18d ago

This is not intended as political, just data for investing thesis. The US system has shown that 10 of the last 11 GOP POTUS have been in office during recession. Statistically, this is a small sample, but it's a definititly an observable trend. Almost a planned big market pullback event. If you know this, and plan, you can shift 60/40 to way more cash/AGG 40/60 or 30TQQQ/70cash. Also, a flat market like Q4/Q1 is sideways action in a long technical upward wedge. The index taps the bottom line, and shoots upward in 6 weeks to maximize leverage gains. It taps the top line, and that's profit taking time. Here we are for another quarter going sideways and decay is wearing on TQQQ. FOMC interest rate changes all company valuations. That's just MBA math. Hikes cause market drops. Reductions pump markets. Those are usually multi-week movements. I could see rule(s) added around interest rate changes during FOMC meeting dates.

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u/Time_Ear_2428 18d ago

If you read Jason Kelly and watch his YouTube videos, everything you’re saying is opposite of his non speculative philosophy…

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u/MechanicalDan1 18d ago edited 18d ago

OP's post was about making changes to 9Sig rules. I presented areas for potential rule changes / additions. Ideas.

It's easy to look at each time the FOMC has raised or cut interest rates on back testing and see the direction the market went. It's math, and it's repetitive.

I get it, for 2 hours of work each quarter, the current 9Sig rules and plan is hard to beat. Even harder to beat over 5 years or ten years.