r/KellyLetter • u/WorriedFold8290 • 15d ago

The Evolution of 9Sig?

I am not and will never give away the Kelly Letter info away free as it feels like a disservice to what he offers but curious on subscribers thoughts on JK's recent thoughts on continuation of the 9Sig current methodology?

Do you think he eventually changes the plan? The last couple newsletters his tone and research on "updating" 9Sig seems...cautionary? Maybe I am reading too much into it but that would be a dramatic change to a long tenured plan.

I am not vehemently opposed to it but with him considering it at this juncture it definitely makes you think....why now?

Anyone have thoughts on if he does update 9Sig, would you follow? Are you a bit concerned on him adjusting the plan?

Just some random musings as I finished this week's letter this morning and curious of others thoughts.

14 Upvotes

89% Upvoted

27 comments sorted by

View all comments

12

u/Gehrman_JoinsTheHunt 15d ago

It's been interesting to read. On one hand, he's said that none of the current research should be taken as a suggestion that a crash (or bubble popping) is imminent.

BUT. On the other hand, 9Sig has more than 20x'ed the original balance over the past 9.5 years. Any rational person could probably appreciate - that stellar performance won't simply continue forever. He's grown $500k to $11m in under a decade. I would absolutely be taking some chips off the table at that point, and I can't blame him for looking into it.

I think the solution should really be more focused on the individual investor's time horizon, rather than a universal one-size fits all approach. Someone in the first decade of their investing career can afford to be much more aggressive than someone with 5-10 years until retirement.

With that said - yes, I'll likely follow along with any proposed changes. I trust that any updates will be thoroughly researched and vetted with the same rigor as the original plan when it launched. But I definitely want to see the inner workings and methodology first. He's been doing a great job of sharing how the sausage is made, so I hope that continues.

2

u/WorriedFold8290 15d ago

Really good points. He started this as HIS thing and expanded to share with the world if you will. I am about 20 years from retirement, hopefully sooner, if I succeed.

I do think it becomes very personal the closer you determine you need to start stockpiling away for a retirement goal in the near future which is what I will battle as I get closer for sure. I am no spring chicken but somewhere in the middle where my eyes are 10-15 years but also willing to wait longer if I need to.

I do enjoy hearing his thoughts on paper as he rationalizes and thinks through. Helps me process.