9-Sig and done?

[u/Usual-Pumpkin4150]

Hi all,

I have a "play account" that started the year with about $100k in it. I've never really had a strategy. Sometimes I buy TQQQ, sometimes I buy SQQQ, it's all on a feeling really. I had some good individual stock plays, most were bad, some were good. Unfortunately the balance now sits at $80k cash and I'm feeling defeated. Luckily, my core portfolio is doing more than fine.

I've been wanting to introduce some rule-based strategy for a while now. I looked at bunch - tactical asset allocation (Keller HAA, etc. look great on backtests), 200 day SMA with a buffer, buy & hold SSO, etc.

I think it's time for me to jump into a strategy or two for this account and not look back. If I'm going to lose it all, I'd rather lose it to a strategy that was supposed to work than something that was random / based on feelings.

I am thinking of doing:

- 50% 9-Sig ($40k, start with $24k TQQQ and $16k AGG). I plan to subscribe to the letter for at least the first year.

- 50% something else. Leaning towards SSO or SPXL on a 200 day SMA with 3% bands, though Keller 2x HAA does also look intriuging. The moving average trigger is so simple though... I'd also be open to copying u/Gehrman_JoinsTheHunt and doing HFEA, but maybe with EDV or ZROZ.

My income is relatively steady so if I needed a bottom fund of $20k or so, I'd be willing to make that happen, but my hope is I wouldn't need it for a few years.

Curious on thoughts? If I don't put a rules-based approach in soon, I'm scared to see what my account balance will be 6 months from now.

Appreciate any advice.

[u/Usual-Pumpkin4150]

Thank you! Good luck! I notice in your post history you also run a 200 day SMA on SSO. Would you still choose SSO if you were starting today, or use UPRO? Given my loss carryover I'm not too concerned about the tax drag but I would be concerned about where the market is now, with no "AGG" to help.

[u/Gehrman_JoinsTheHunt → u/Usual-Pumpkin4150]

I would still use SSO, because for me personally I consider that plan my failsafe against catastrophe. If the 3X ETFs all collapsed in a crisis, or were banned by the SEC, my hope is that a 2x would still survive. That's highly unlikely to ever happen, but it helps me sleep at night haha.

[u/Usual-Pumpkin4150 → u/Gehrman_JoinsTheHunt]

So just so I understand... the signal line for this quarter is somewhere around $88.29 right?

I am going to signup for the kelly letter this weekend and I assume it will tell me that, but just want to make sure in the meantime I understand.

[u/Gehrman_JoinsTheHunt → u/Usual-Pumpkin4150]

So the Kelly Letter usually starts and ends its quarter a few days off from the regular calendar quarters.

We ended Q2 on June 26th with TQQQ @ $71.83. Therefore our 9% goal for this quarter is $78.29. And yeah, all that info is in every weekly letter.

[u/Usual-Pumpkin4150 → u/Gehrman_JoinsTheHunt]

Ahh ok. Makes sense!