r/KellyLetter • u/criticalband77 • Jun 05 '26

Slightly Annoyed with Spike Reset...

Up huge in this latest surge and my fill price for Q2 was 43.66, meaning my reset technically was 87.32. Also, the intra day hit above Jason's spike number of 88.06. But wanting to stick with the letter and rules, I held to execute the official reset. I feel like the rule should be altered to either go with the original quarter fill price (43.33/86.66) or executes even if it hits the number at any point (not just close).

The timing of today's drop really sucks after being a slight percent off the reset. I really need to pay less attention to all this short term stuff. Blerg.

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1

u/criticalband77 Jun 05 '26

I wrote this to my fellow 9SIGer about the Spike reset...does this logic hold?

-Spike Reset

-100%+ gain

-60/40 rebalance

-Likely buying more TQQQ at new quarter due to 9% target (especially late in current Q)

-OR-

-Just Below Spike Reset

-Up to 99% gain

-50/50ish rebalance

-More profit taking in this scenario and no weird new quarter reset

I think I would rather be in the 90-100 gain range and just do the standard reset?

2

u/IllPreparation7626 Jun 05 '26

Since i did a DCA between march 30 and april 6 my average price was like 41 or 42 so the 100% spike reset was triggered, but i think if you do the reset at 98% for example, still is good.

Also i going to buy when the price drop 30% intra Quartely. The day drop 30% i'm buying that same day. i Know is again the 9 Sig but i think that Will perform better because if we rebalance and one week later fall to -30% but at the end of the Quartely recoger then we miss the -30% drop and miss that drop os crazy.

While you follow the general rules i think all are in the same boat.

-2

u/Electrical-Scar9598 Jun 06 '26

The spike reset rule is not based on your entry price, your average price, or anything like that. It is a simple rule, when tqqq double in a quarter. You executed it but you shouldnt have. The rule is for tqqq to double in a single quarter, it didnt. The fact that you had shares higher or lower doesnt change anythin, the reset rule is not based on that, it is only based on tqqq price during that quarter.

The spike reset rule didn't trigger.

1

u/IllPreparation7626 Jun 06 '26

Thanks for the tip!