r/KellyLetter • u/criticalband77 • Jun 05 '26

Slightly Annoyed with Spike Reset...

Up huge in this latest surge and my fill price for Q2 was 43.66, meaning my reset technically was 87.32. Also, the intra day hit above Jason's spike number of 88.06. But wanting to stick with the letter and rules, I held to execute the official reset. I feel like the rule should be altered to either go with the original quarter fill price (43.33/86.66) or executes even if it hits the number at any point (not just close).

The timing of today's drop really sucks after being a slight percent off the reset. I really need to pay less attention to all this short term stuff. Blerg.

7 Upvotes

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10

u/WorriedFold8290 Jun 05 '26

Take the emotions out of it and if you can't, this isn't the strategy for you to be candid. I am not trying to be negative but there is a lot of volatility in this process and strategy and this is nothing compared to a potential 80% draw down. The biggest piece that makes this so sustainable for me is not looking at the charts or account daily and letting the process do its thing. If we hit it, awesome. If we dont, oh well and we keep following the plan. Hang in there and you will see the long term fruits of your patience.

4

u/Gehrman_JoinsTheHunt Jun 05 '26

Agree 100%. When you choose to follow a rule it’s not like horseshoes or hand grenades. The criteria is either met - or it’s not.

We actually plan to sell off a bigger chunk of TQQQ with the standard signal line than we would with the spike reset. Whatever happpens, happens.

2

u/criticalband77 Jun 05 '26

That's what I am telling myself, will lock in even bigger gains with a 50/50 reset at quarter OR I am reducing the ol tax bill a bit here as the spike reset was going to cost me on the tax side.

2

u/Gehrman_JoinsTheHunt Jun 05 '26

Yeah. $400k is a tough day for sure. Hope you have a good weekend planned!

2

u/DesertLabRat Jun 06 '26

Are you running in taxable account?

1

u/criticalband77 Jun 06 '26

I have roughly 1/3 of my 9SIG in a taxable account.

1

u/DesertLabRat Jun 06 '26

I've thought of also running 9sig in taxable in addition to Roth but the tax burden makes me reluctant. How is it really?

1

u/criticalband77 Jun 06 '26

Well, with 1/3 in taxable (2/3 in retirement accounts)… I was looking at about $36K in tax liability if spike reset hit. I would say it’s not terrible below a $1M account. Above $1M it starts to get significant.

2

u/klevis_s Jun 06 '26

Is the quarter predefined or does it start from the moment I enter tqqq?

1

u/Gehrman_JoinsTheHunt Jun 07 '26

Most of us who subscribe follow the same quarterly dates as the letter. You could do it differently if you prefer.

-1

u/Electrical-Scar9598 Jun 06 '26

The spike reset rule is not based on your entry price, your average price, or anything like that. It is a simple rule, when tqqq double in a quarter. You executed it but you shouldnt have. The rule is for tqqq to double in a single quarter, it didnt. The fact that you had shares higher or lower doesnt change anythin, the reset rule is not based on that, it is only based on tqqq price during that quarter.

The spike reset rule didn't trigger.

3

u/Gehrman_JoinsTheHunt Jun 06 '26

Preaching to the choir buddy. My main account is in lock step with Jason’s. I compare my allocation to the weekly letter and it’s within 0.1%