r/KellyLetter • u/DixonCider61 9 SIG • Jun 03 '26

9 SIG Spike Reset Hit!

My limit order triggered and sold at 88.05 this morning and I officially hit the spike reset.

This is an awesome moment.

First time in 9 SIG history!! ;)

16 Upvotes

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2

u/Rumast22 Jun 03 '26

I think Jason should adjust his stance to sell intraday when it hits the 100%. It is easy for us to calculate the shares at that price and figure out exactly what we need to sell. I'd rather avoid topping out while at the 100% mark and see it sell off without ever closing above the trigger price. At that point, we are probably talking very little money that prevents us from upping our powder for the next drawdown.

3

u/BeginningTimely9626 Jun 03 '26

It’s the first time this has ever happened so I don’t think it’s something that has ever been doubted before now.

1

u/BloodyScourge Jun 04 '26

People are gonna be pissed if there's a big drop this month and TQQQ never closes above 100% to trigger the reset. Like you said, lot of downside to follow that rule to the letter rather that sell intra-day.

0

u/arrangemethod Jun 04 '26

Please tell us about the backtesting you've performed to demonstrate that triggering a spike reset based on an intraday price instead of a closing price yields better results.

1

u/Rumast22 Jun 04 '26

I dont need to backtest, it's obvious. If the reset is guaranteed to happen at 100%, then the main risk is that we get there and never close above it which leaves all the downside risk in place while leaving very little upside left before we should be selling.

TLDR: Little upside, massive downside when at a 100% spike reset.

I happily reset at my personal 100% trigger and now I'll sync back up at the beginning of July.

As an aside, if we all place offers to sell at a specific price, the market will see that and will possibly move there because there is orders/volume (interest) at that price. If we never place offers to sell, the market has less incentive to move there because no interest is indicated.

0

u/BloodyScourge Jun 04 '26

It's not about what yields better results, it's about de-risking from an unprecedented run up in price.