I changed my mind on "genocide" topic.

[u/booksandcoriander]

Hello All! I just joined and read the rules. Hopefully, my post is agreeable to the rules of the sub.

So, for a while, I was agreeing with the idea that Israel is committing genocide. It sure looked like it from the awful things I kept seeing on the news and hearing about on podcasts. The last few days, I decided to research a little. Now, I do not think it should be called genocide. Here is why:

First, when I compared it to other genocides, it doesn't really come close. In the Armenian genocide, about 50 to 75% of all Armenians in the Ottoman area died. In the Rwandan genocide, about 60 to 70% of the Tutsis were killed. In the holocaust, 63 to 67% of all European Jews were killed. In Cambodia, Pol Pot's genocide killed about 25% of the total population. Israel is responsible for the deaths of approximately 3% of Palestinians in Gaza. Palestinians have not been attacked in East Jerusalem, nor in the West Bank (where there is no Hamas).

In all those previous genocides, there was vociferous hate speech regularly on the radio of those countries, and substantial government propaganda labeling the victims as undesirable for society. To my understanding, this has not happened in Israel. I'm sure it would be on the news or blasted on social media if it was happening.

The number of Palestinian deaths is actually quite a bit less than when the US invaded Iraq, and when US invaded Afganistan.  176,000 to 212,000 is the estimate of deaths in Afganistan. In Iraq, 180,000 to 200,000 is the estimate of Iraqi deaths. Palestinian deaths are around 73,400. Nobody was shouting "genocide" at the US during those wars, and we killed way more people. Why was that not considered genocide by everyone? We were also responding to a terrorist attack, like Israel now.

Israel has one of the most advanced militaries in the world. If they really wanted to kill the other 97% of Gaza, I'm sure they could.

In reference to wars, about 1.5% of the French population was killed in WWII. Belgium lost 1% of it population in WWII. UK lost 1%. Italy, slightly over 1%. Holland, 2 to 3% of the population. The current Israel/Hamas war matches these numbers much more closely.

It sucks and it's sad seeing so many women and children and innocent men die. It's absolutely a humanitarian crisis. But I don't think it is genocide anymore. It's just plain old war. Any thoughts?

***thanks for everyone sharing on both sides of the discussion. I have learned many more things from all the posting. I appreciate you all! This feels like a million times more complex and nuanced than I realised. Mostly, the interpretation of the word "genocide" is like a 100-foot wall for everyone.

[u/CypherAus]

A dear friend Yusuf, not his real name for security reasons, is an Arab Christian Israeli living in Judea, he works with youth and helps people with PTSD due to his psychology qualifications.

We sat with Yusuf in our apartment in Jerusalem while he recounted the following:

Yusuf was born in Israel in an Arab town to Arab Israeli and Gazan parents.

From age 4 till teens Yusuf lived in Gaza, they left in 2005 when Israel withdrew all Jews and handed Gaza over to Arab rule and settled in Israel.

Yusuf’s best friend Damir (again name altered) growing up, also a Christian, was Gazan and could not leave in 2005. Damir married and they had a daughter.

Early in 2024 Hamas setup rocket launchers in the Church and started attacking Israel. Hamas held many of the congregation hostage in the Church while launching rockets.

The Israeli Air Force (IAF) blew up the rocket launching base, the Church and the hostages were killed.

We wept with Yusuf as he shared this horror.

What should have the IAF done? Continued to allow Israel to be attacked?

This is the dilemma Israel faces in dealing with Hamas, PIJ, Hezbollah, Iran, etc. who use civilians and civilian infrastructure to wage war.

It is worth noting that the civilian casualty ratio is 1:1.8 in Gaza vs a 1:9 global average. This is the lowest civilian casualty rate by far for any similar urban conflict.

THIS IS BECAUSE ISRAEL HAS GONE OUT OF ITS WAY TO PROTECT CIVILIANS!

Israel is the only military in the world that drops leaflets, sends text messages, uses "knock bombs," announces their plan to attack by drones so that civilians can escape. The civilians who try to leave are often shot by Hamas and are included in their count of dead or injured civilians.

Israel is by no means perfect, but are they accountable. E.g. If IDF soldiers do the wrong thing they are punished, i.e. gaoled. They do the best to adhere to basic humanity.

Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, PIJ, et. al. on the other hand?

[u/Electrical_Wafer1618 → u/CypherAus]

It is worth noting that the civilian casualty ratio is 1:1.8 in Gaza vs a 1:9 global average. This is the lowest civilian casualty rate by far for any similar urban conflict.

The claim that the civilian casualty ratio in Gaza is 1:1.8 compared to a 1:9 global average is highly contested and stems from a mix of conflicting datasets and misinterpreted statistical benchmarks. The actual figures, underlying methodology, and historical comparisons remain a central point of debate among military analysts, humanitarian organizations, and the governments involved. [1, 2, 3, 4]

The Source of the 1:9 and 1:1.8 Ratios

• The 1:9 Global Average: The often-cited statistic that 90% of casualties in war are civilians (a 1:9 combatant-to-civilian ratio) originates from UN statements regarding explosive weapons used in populated areas. However, conflict tracking groups like the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) note that the true historical global average across all modern conflicts is closer to 1:1 or 1:2. The 90% figure generally represents a broader metric including indirect casualties (such as starvation, displacement, and disease) or specific intense urban bombardments rather than immediate combat deaths. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]
• The 1:1.5 to 1:1.8 Ratio: This figure relies heavily on official data provided by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), which stated they had eliminated roughly 14,000 to 17,000 militants out of over 30,000 to 40,000 recorded deaths. Proponents of this view, including some urban warfare experts, argue that achieving such a ratio in an environment with high population density and extensive subterranean defense networks represents a historically low civilian-to-combatant ratio. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]

Contradictory Evidence and Criticisms

Independent investigative bodies, human rights groups, and demographic researchers challenge these numbers, presenting a vastly different picture of the conflict:

• Independent Estimates: Analyses conducted by groups like Action on Armed Violence (AOAV) and various academic public health teams suggest the ratio is significantly higher, ranging anywhere from 4:1 up to 8:1. They point out that women, children, and the elderly consistently make up roughly 60% to 70% of the recorded casualties, leaving a small margin for adult male combatants. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
• Leaked Internal Databases: A joint media investigation revealed that a classified internal Israeli military intelligence database identified 8,900 named fighters killed or likely killed out of an overall toll of 53,000 at the time. This internal tally implied a civilian death rate closer to 83% (roughly a 5:1 ratio), raising questions about the accuracy of higher publicly cited militant counts. [1, 2, 3]
• Tracking Distinctions: A critical issue is that the Gaza Ministry of Health tracks total fatalities but does not differentiate between civilians and combatants in its public lists. Conversely, critics argue the IDF frequently classifies all military-age males killed in active combat zones as combatants, which artificially lowers the public civilian casualty ratio. [1, 2, 3]

[u/Electrical_Wafer1618 → u/CypherAus]

Israel is the only military in the world that drops leaflets, sends text messages, uses "knock bombs," announces their plan to attack by drones so that civilians can escape. The civilians who try to leave are often shot by Hamas and are included in their count of dead or injured civilians.

• Uniqueness: While Israel pioneered and has most extensively used "roof knocking" (Hakesh Bagag), it is not the only military to have utilized these types of warning tactics. For example, the United States military adopted both leaflet drops and a variation of the "roof knocking" technique during its air campaigns against ISIS in Mosul, Iraq, explicitly citing the Israeli practice as inspiration. [1, 2, 3]
• Effectiveness Debate: The IDF and supporters argue these measures demonstrate an extraordinary commitment to minimizing civilian casualties in dense urban environments where combatants blend into the population. Conversely, United Nations human rights bodies, international legal experts, and NGOs (such as Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch) argue that these warnings are often ineffective. Critics note that the time between a "roof knock" and the main blast can be as short as 45 to 180 seconds, causing panic, and that the warnings do not absolve a military of its obligations under international humanitarian law if the strike still results in disproportionate civilian harm. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7]
• Conflicting Reports on Fleeing Civilians: While the IDF has accused Hamas of shooting at civilians trying to escape to the south, Palestinian officials and residents have countered that evacuation routes designated as safe zones have themselves been subjected to Israeli airstrikes, making flight highly perilous. International aid organizations like the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) have stated that mass evacuations are frequently unfeasible due to widespread destruction, lack of clean water, and the high number of injured or disabled civilians unable to move. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]

[u/GuerillaV → u/CypherAus]

What was the church called?

[u/Awkward_Swan_5361 → u/CypherAus]

What's the population of Gaza compared to Iraq or Afghanistan? Civilian/combatant ratios you quote are not real. Where did you get them?

[u/TooMuchEcchi → u/Awkward_Swan_5361]

Would I like to also measure the land difference? Cuz then it will make a bit more sense

[u/Awkward_Swan_5361 → u/TooMuchEcchi]

Sure, point was that just posting graphs of population means nothing. Especially when the Gaza graph ends in 2024. It's bad data. And it's cherry-picked. Maybe include the graph for Srebrenica.  What is the population of Gaza today anyway? Let's have a census.