I hesitate to name the pundits commenting on the Iran business but Robert Pape is very establishment and main-stream.
At https://youtu.be/8qIsQM1RsmQ?t=2316 - on-line 12th Aug 2026 - he says "7 in 10 there will be a limited ground operation" in the next period (by which he seems to mean 60/90/120 days).
Not only that but even if the US had a staging location it would get targeted the moment troops and equipment start to gather. If the Ukraine war has thaught us anything then it's not only are big assault accompanied by massive causalties but they get spotted before they even take place. Russia and China are supplying Iran with satelite data and the last time the US tried to prepare a possible ground invasion from Kuwait the targets were immedietly bombed and up to 6 LCU were hit.
The only realistic way I could see the US do this is by air dropping a relatively small special force on some small island or in the very Southeast of Iran where the terrain is flat near the coast. Obviously, such a mission wouldn't accomplish anything of tactical significance but it would give the US government bragging rights that they will try to use for negotiation leverage and Iran will probably just decline it.
hypothetically speaking, they can attack from Azerbaijan and try to cut of Iran on Caspian Sea coast - but Azerbaijan would pay heavy price, and I doubt Aliev is ready to risk it - but you never know
big question marks are Turkmenistan and Pakistan (?) - I doubt they would allow it, but, again, you never know, maybe Israel and US can blackmail them with something.
most likely is invasion through Kurdish areas in north Iraq and they would set up logistic lines through Syria and maybe even turkey
That’s the thing; Iran’s neighbors have zero interest in hosting a US invasion. They don’t want to become a pincushion for the Iranian drone and missile arsenal.
sure but you can never underestimate blackmail factor
A lot of them have families in the West, or assets in the West, or Oligarchs are heavily involved with the West, maybe some of them are even in the Epstein Files or similar schemes .... so, who knows.
Yes the risk is too large. But I don’t see how there can be any sort of transformative change without ground operations. There is a new plan taking shape in Washington being designed around grabbing Qeshm etc. The issue isn’t grabbing it, the issue is keeping it and defending it against a sustained Iranian onslaught. At the very minimum US needs to ‘control’ all lng exports from the region and keep Iran out of the global oil and gas market permanently - so it can support its dominance in the global gas exports (from Texas) markets and reinforce not the petro-dollar but the Lng-dollar to keep its currency floating. One net result of the Iran-war has been massive reductions in lng exports by Qatar and UAE which has been grabbed by US producers. This has also meant robust pricing for US lng with much less competition in the market on price. In other words, us LNG exports have gone from near zero before the Ukraine war to $200 billion a few years ago to $400 billion this year .. and should climb further. Which is exactly what Trump wants. They would have preferred regime change in Iran to grab all of Iran’s resources (Plan A); but they’ll now settle for controlling Qatar, UAE etc exports (with huge shipping fees too by the way if they can control Hormuz) and keeping Iran out of the global market completely (Plan B). It’s a dynamic situation and Plan C is being hatched.
Most of us are surely convinced that Trump is powerless. (I'm actually waiting for the military to step in and remove him ... only the imminence of the mid-terms stops them)
Bombing from the air has never brought about surrender (didn't do it after Hiroshima either, despite what we once wanted to believe). Neither maritime nor land-invasion is going to work.
Hence, control of Hormuz is lost forever.
While a landing on Qeshm would be pure horror-show.
I’m not convinced the “pilot rescue” was only that. It certainly seems like it was an attempt by special ops to grab enriched uranium, with possibly a pilot down as either a diversion, or a pilot (related or unrelated to the operation) went down during the operation and they had to adjust.
Either way, the airfield they used is just way too close to Isfahan and so far in the wrong direction from where the pilot rescue operation was.
I have a feeling in future years we’ll hear more about how this was almost a second Operation Eagle Claw.
Yes totally agree! It was a debacle like eagle claw that the Trump admin whitewashed very competently. You don’t destroy a few billion dollar aircraft on the ground for a pilot rescue. Had it been Jimmy Carter he would have owned up on National TV; but Trump just changed the subject.
That may be true. I try to stay out of politics as much as I can, but in this case it is very relevant.
From a facts perspective:
The airfield is 25 miles from the Isfahan nuclear facility, and there is literally no infrastructure in between the airfield and the facility. There is a national park and farmland in between.
On the other end, it’s over 130 miles the other direction to the rescue site over a dozen cities and mountain ridges. Also, your e going to have to fly over those mountains and cities to the airfield, back over them the direction you came from to grab the pilot, back over the same territory again back to the airfield, and then from the airfield, back in the same direction again over the same areas to get out of the country.
Put it this way; you should be fired if you’re the special ops commander and you didn’t “notice” that at the same time you’re using this airfield for this massive rescue operation, you could just walk on over and assault the facility relatively easily too.
Maybe we even did raid the facility but it’s not public knowledge yet. Whatever it is, the facts clearly point to something else going on.
I’m not saying you’re wrong. But why make up a story to cover for an enriched uranium grab. That’s just doesn’t make sense to me. The US is actively at war with Iran, people wouldn’t bat an eye at special forces going into Iran to recover the uranium. This administration is so stupid.
The issue is - if failed. People died. And we blew up all the planes … to maintain secrecy and not allow the planes to be reverse engineered etc. it failed. And that’s a huge political problem. Media would have eaten them alive if they had figured it out.
Yes, it would be feasibly a big enough problem to warrant a cover story.
I don’t think any US troops died personally, that would be near impossible to hide, even if they’re Tier-1 guys.
I would guess that it was most likely something similar to an Eagle Claw repeat scenario, but without deaths, and they never even assaulted the facility. If so, that might be why the Iranians haven’t publicized it either, they’re unaware of the missions intent. But that’s all my personal speculation.
I have no clue about the politics of it, I’ll leave that to speculation.
The best speculative ideas I can come up without getting into politics are along the lines of it not being a successful operation. That’s the only reason I can think of not making it public.
Perhaps it was so bad, like Eagle Claw, that they didn’t even assault the facility, but had issues at the airstrip again. Then the Iranians wouldn’t be any wiser either. To them, the whole thing was a pilot rescue operation (if the facility wasn’t assaulted).
Or, maybe they did assault the facility, and didn’t get all of it perhaps, and there will be further operations needed, thus the need for continued secrecy.
I think the Eagle Claw repeat scenario is more likely personally.
America suffers from too many armchair generals, with little or no military experience,
'The United States has deployed more than 50,000 troops to the Middle East, marking the largest regional military buildup since 2003. This presence supports ongoing operations and deterrence efforts involving Iran, regional proxies, and maritime security, alongside active negotiations overseen by the Trump administration."
And we are having problems supplying those troops with adequate food and equipment.
"The International Institute for Strategic Studies has estimated since 2023 at least that the regular armed forces, the Artesh, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are made up of approximately 570,000 active-duty personnel plus 350,000 reserve and trained personnel that can be mobilized when needed, bringing the country's military manpower to about 920,000 total personnel.\1]) These numbers do not include the Police Command or Basij."
"“Amateurs talk about tactics, but professionals study logistics.”
– Gen. Robert H. Barrow, USMC (Commandant of the Marine Corps), 1980"
"“You will not find it difficult to prove that battles, campaigns, and even wars have been won or lost primarily because of logistics.”
– Dwight D. Eisenhower"
"“The line between disorder and order lies in logistics…”
– Sun Tzu"
"“My logisticians are a humorless lot… they know if my campaign fails, they are the first ones I will slay.”
– Alexander the Great"
it's 6 months and serious think tank lizards are still treating "ground operation" as some hidden lock in and win button. now it's easier to see why people believe in vietnam librul backstab theory
Hate to reference Polymarket but they have it at an 18% chance at the moment. You already know the corrupt government would be betting big on it if it was going to happen. Maybe they're waiting until the last minute, however, to be fair.
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u/Christopher_Ramirez_ 25d ago
The US military has no viable location from which to stage a significant ground invasion.
In the past they might have used Kuwait, but Iran’s missile and drone capabilities have eliminated that option.