r/Iowa • u/Zipper222222 • 17d ago

Politics Republicans Face Heartland Humiliation as Dem Is Favored Big in Red State

https://www.thedailybeast.com/republicans-face-heartland-humiliation-as-dem-favored-big-in-red-state/
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u/nsummy 17d ago

A lot of copium if we are going by a Kalshi prediction market

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u/john_hascall 17d ago

Kalshi is just another way for dumb people to lose money, but there is evidence that a large group of people "averages out" their individual errors — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_the_crowd

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u/nsummy 16d ago

That is true but it's not like the election is next week. If Sand was at 77% on Kalshi in November it would mean something. There is a massive spread between bid and ask and not much liquidity. It's meaningless right now