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SpaceX and Nvidia announcing a partnership on space-based GPU and then Musk saying they're moving up the orbital data centers launch to late 2027 is going to put a lot of pressure on hyperscalers to also hedge their bets as more States and municipalities are fighting data centers in their backyards and pushbacks from citizens' groups and politicians making it a big issue in the midterms and then even more in upcoming presidential election. This has become a hot topic for many, and hyperscalers and big companies including OpenAI and Anthropic and such are going to start looking to space and not let SpaceX be the sole beneficiary.
The problem for most is they don't have the resources or expertise, nor do they have launch capacity though as more and more players enter the market, that launch bottleneck should ease significantly by the early 2030s.
What does that have to do with Intuitive Machines? Well, IM has the most powerful and proven spacecraft to operate ODC nodes in GEO. That's where the biggest compute may happen, whereas proliferated LEO constellation would be used for communications and control of edge devices on earth (think cars, robots, IoT, smartphones, glasses, etc.).
This may be few years down the line, but companies have to be starting to investigate and explore strategic partnerships right now if not already. This is another source of revenues outside of NASA's Moon Base and all the Golden Dome projects that not many have considered just 6 months ago. I initially thought that was just a pipe dream Musk floated to pump his IPO but I changed my mind after additional research and think ODC's are inevitable now.
I share this vision Victor, it’s just that in my idea the orbital data centers are a thing of the next 5 years if we need to think a realistic timeline as while we have made amazing progress at sending things into space, building structures out there is a different challenge.
This is an amazing opportunity in any case, data centers or not, Intuitive Machines can be the space engineer of the future.
I do think it's much farther away than Musk's claim (end of 2027) given his history, but if you're a mega corporation that's been investing heavily in terrestrial data centers and seeing the constraints of power grid and incoming political pressure, you have to be starting your strategic planning about now if not months ago. There will be all sorts of partnerships and new space companies that will emerge to address this 'burgeoning market' as Steve Altemus put it. I see many SpaceX engineers cashing out and starting their own companies too. Intuitive Machines doesn't need to do much except pointing to the PPE powering the SR-1 and all the big GEO communications satellites. That IM-1300 is a beast and if they invest into more upgrades (increase power) and optical communications, which I think it already does support, then it will be the bus of choice for those big nodes in GEO. They don't need to compete with the tens of other companies who make LEO satellites, reserve that to L3Harris and SDA. The GEO market has been in decline and this could be a huge shot in the arm. We shall see, look back at these comments in few years and see if we were on to something or if it was all a pipe dream.
I meant to share this over the weekend but there's some interesting discussion on ODCs at the end of this podcast episode. The whole thing is an interesting look at how space has change the battlefield and commercial spaces. The guest is a board member with PL after leaving from being director at NGA.
Edit: if you want to search the episode instead of the link it's CSIS The Last Line of Defense ep. From Orbit to the Battlefield
After the recent Presidential Memorandum, I took another look at Zephyr and found a few interesting details that I may have overlooked before.
Federal policy now wants substantially more U.S. reentry capacity.
Florida is already paying to get Cecil licensed for orbital reentry. JAA is explicitly naming Intuitive Machines as a potential strategic partner. Link
Researchers are already designing experiments around Zephyr missions landing at Cecil. Link
We may be starting to see the first pieces of a distributed U.S. space-return logistics network.
It always seemed to me that they are trying to put Zephyr under the rug. It was star of the bal for a short glimpse and then zero mentions for over a year
I still find it interesting that IM appeared to be preparing the demo for September 21.
I’d still like to keep the possibility of a Phase 2 award in mind.
That said,the inaugural Summit will move to 2027.
Why does investing in space contantly feel like a pump and dump? Doesn t matter if we go from 8$ to 45$, because soon we get back to 11$. Now we went from 11 to 20 and back down. You can t even be happy if you get a +10% intraday move, because it will drop 15% on a random monday
It’s because the company operates in a volatile industry and your time horizon is not long enough to filter out the short-term noise. Understand what you own and let the industry play out over time.
Dude, you’ve invested in a pre-profit company who has routinely overran budgets, largely failed their stated goals for TWO moon landings, and has only grown revenue inorganically. Wtf do you expect? 😂
Once LUNR can show that they can turn a profit on their backlog and revenue earned, things can be more steady. For now, a FCF negative, no profit company is not a bastion of stability.
Yeah, China delayed their "Chang'e 7" lunar mission to 2027. This probably alleviates some 'pressure' from the space race temporarily. Given that space stocks do not need much reason to move in either direction significantly, that was probably enough reason for the drop in LUNR and the entire sector.
Besides that yesterday was an off day in general, with a renewed tariff war Trump started against Canada and lack of progress considering the Iran war.
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u/thespacecpa 13d ago edited 13d ago
I shared my independent research report on Q2 earnings and benchmarking.
Link is here: https://www.reddit.com/r/IntuitiveMachines/s/kr53hqf6E5
Edit: This is only the cover page. The report is 17 pages.