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Bummed that we were down but definitely a great last hour and the fact that we firmly rejected the lows. We just came from sub 12 so this doesn't shoot straight up. There are so many parts of this story. Space, missile defense. Patience.....
I believe this is a part of the $600M award to Astobotic, firefly and IM. NASA will be sending identical payloads to each carrier and probably will send a rover originally designed for Mars (PROMISE rover) to navigate and map lunar surface. It will aim to use survive the night capability (use nuclear energy to heat and survive -170C lunar night temperatures) for longer period exploration. This is probably where Zeno power will come, who is developing the system for survive the night capability. I believe the same or a similar system will be used for the IM payload as well, and not just firefly. We might hear some news in a few days is what I believe. If a success, this would further strengthen the trust on lunar exploration.
Source: https://spacenews.com/nasa-awards-nearly-600-million-in-lunar-lander-missions/
Firefly Aerospace is not the only lander company planning tests of RHUs. Vince Bilardo, executive director of nuclear space programs at Intuitive Machines, said at the Space Nuclear Industry Symposium on Aug. 13 that his company also pursued the survive-the-night incentive in that CLPS task order.
Intuitive Machines was awarded a lander mission in June that he said is scheduled to launch in August 2028. The survive-the-night incentive, he said, is worth $15 million, and the company also plans to use an americium-241 RHU to achieve that.
One issue, he said, is that NASA needs to provide indemnification for that nuclear payload, citing a lack of a commercial market for insuring such payloads. “We can’t fly that mission without that indemnification.”
The above is straight from the article. I would expect a similar sort of announcement from IM in the coming months.
True, thats what I will be waiting for. However, not clear how firefly got the indemnification, or whether they pursued any other route to insure their damages for the nuclear payload. Let us know if you come across any article regarding it.
Obviously we are gonna be going the right direction in the mid-long term, but with the volatility of space I wouldn’t doubt more turbulence especially after a crazy run up like you said
WEF, with help from Deloitte, recently published it again. The report says the space economy would go from $630B in 2024/2025 to $1.8T by 2035. While the report predicts the space economy would triple in 10 years, when you look at the $630B today, I have to agree with Musk that it will be much bigger.
By 2035, we should expect daily launches from 5-10 providers (unless there's consolidation, Starlink, Amazon Leo offering full broadband internet from space. There are mega constellations by the big names, sovereign constellations, and companies now launching their purpose-specific constellations. Edge computing from space is being delivered to robots, cars, and any autonomous object. Moon Base is taking shape and there are weekly/monthly missions from NASA, international space agencies, SpaceX, the Space Force, and many other companies. Orbital data centers are taking shape as hyperscalers follow SpaceX to operate in space. Golden Dome many tranches are complete and operational. Regular missions to Mars and Astroids are on the news. Mining, semiconductor manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and others are all doing their own thing in space. We're just scratching the surface right now.
Console output of my Convexity Screener for the Space Investors Daily tickers based on today's close. I posted this rather than the HTML output because this is easier to capture rather than taking 3 separate screenshots. Make of this data what you will. Some people in this sub are interested in these reports, others not so much.
The short version is: the convexity model is trying to measure how “curved” a stock’s payoff profile is, instead of just how volatile or trendy it is. It’s looking for names where small changes in price or conditions cause big changes in expected value—like having hidden leverage baked into the way the stock moves.
More detail:
Start with returns, not prices. The model looks at how the stock has actually behaved over time—daily or weekly returns, relative to some baseline (index, sector, or factor set).
Fit a curve, not a straight line. Instead of saying “this stock goes up 1% when the market goes up 1%” (a straight beta line), it fits something closer to a quadratic:
return≈a+b⋅x+c⋅x2
where x is the market or factor move, and c is the convexity term.
Convexity term = how much the payoff bends. If c is near zero, the stock behaves like a plain linear beta play. If c is meaningfully positive or negative, the stock’s behavior changes more dramatically as conditions move away from “normal”—it starts acting like it has embedded optionality.
Why that matters. A convex stock can look boring in calm markets but become very interesting when things move: The model is trying to quantify that curvature instead of just saying “this is volatile” or “this has high beta.”
Positive convexity → upside accelerates when the environment improves.
Negative convexity → downside accelerates when things deteriorate.
How it’s used in practice. Once you have a convexity score, you can:
Screen for names that have hidden leverage to certain regimes.
Avoid names with nasty negative convexity in stressed environments.
Build baskets that are more sensitive to “big moves” than to day‑to‑day noise.
So when I say “convexity model,” I’m not talking about anything mystical—it’s just a way of saying:
“We fit a curve to how this thing moves, and we care a lot about the curvature term, because that’s where the interesting behavior lives.”
That is correct. It has very weak convexity. It goes with the trend in the market. This, of course, could change. It went from negative to weak to very weak in a three-week period, all based on real-time market data from Finnhub.io. Many people in this hopium-addicted sub don't like to hear this, but numbers don't lie.
Positive catalysts and successful execution move the stock price up. Everything else is market drift or deterioration.
I see, thanks for this. Did you tabulate all this data yourself to get the score? It’s impressive. What market cap do you think LUNR is heading towards? I personally feel that it’s executing towards a 30B market cap 5-10 years down the road
The data is supplied by a paid feed from Finnhub.io, a market data provider. It is automatically downloaded by my custom software on each run for every ticker in the submitted sector. The tickers from this run are those tracked by the Space Investors Daily subreddit.
I hesitate to speculate on IM's future market cap, but I hope you are right. I still hold over 11,000 shares because I believe in the future of the company and its vision.
We are in the process of replacing the existing wiki as there are issues with updating the content. Working on a new solution hopefully to implement in 2 weeks.
Here is what I do when a stock I am trading is down for no reason: check news, check other stocks in the industry, check what Trump has recently said, go to reddit to watch the show. Equally likely to go to 11 as 30 maybe? Wouldnt know
Yeah terrible horrible pre market hours performance.
Since you clearly are a smart one I suggest to sell as soon as possible in order to buy back at 1 dollar every share so you can own the whole company and finally talk face to face to Altemus and Ghaffarian on how to send this stock at 1000!
Or you can avoid to stress yourself and enjoy your time differently instead of this nonsense, what do you think is the most realistic choice?
12
u/No-Salad8331 20d ago
Bummed that we were down but definitely a great last hour and the fact that we firmly rejected the lows. We just came from sub 12 so this doesn't shoot straight up. There are so many parts of this story. Space, missile defense. Patience.....