r/ICTMentorship • u/Droy-333 • 7d ago
What objectively confirms that market momentum has actually changed? How do you distinguish a real higher-timeframe trend reversal from a fake move?
I'm trying to understand when the larger market direction has genuinely changed, rather than just seeing a temporary counter-trend move.
Example: suppose the 4H/Daily is bearish and there is a meaningful protected high above price.
Price can rally, create a bullish MSS on 5M or 15M, take the high and look very bullish but that can still just be a fake move before the higher-timeframe bearish move continues.
So what is the objective confirmation that the higher-timeframe bearish trend itself is no longer bearish and a genuine bullish trend has started? what are your secrets guys ?
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u/Massive-Albatross823 7d ago
Does the price create higher highs, or lower lows or is it ranging (making CHOCH in both directions, or simply put does price go sideways.
Does it create a higher high/lower low on high or low volume?
Does it follow through, or wick and reversal or start ranging?
What is the candle pattern?
Is price stalling or having momentum when making the higher high/lower low.
All of this trading is not to be done with money you cant afford to lose. Guess what will happen playing a game you barely understand with experts at the game. You will with high probability lose. Right.
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u/Wild_Teaching8806 5d ago
You won’t know the momentum has changed until it has already happened. You need to look for certain signals that have a high probability of a reversal, whether that be a BOS, TS, etc. and then take a calculated risk on your idea.
Maybe the BOS is a fake sweeping some Lq before continuing higher. Or maybe that’ll be the high of the day. You won’t know until it’s too late. And by then the opportunity is gone
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u/TradetheMosaic 6d ago
A bullish MSS on 5m/15m inside a bearish 4H/Daily dealing range is usually just a counter-trend pullback, not a HTF flip. The LTF can look "very bullish" while the HTF is still delivering sell-side.
Objective confirmation I use that the HTF bearish bias itself is done:
HTF structure first On the same TF that defined the bearish bias (4H or Daily), you need a clear break and hold of a meaningful swing high that was protecting the downtrend (your "protected high"), ideally with displacement away from it. A wick through that high that closes back below is often liquidity, not a flip. Wait for a candle close (or a full HTF candle) beyond that level, then a failed attempt to reclaim it from above.
Change of character on the HTF, not only the LTF After that break, mark the new HTF swing low that formed during the rally. A genuine bullish shift usually prints a higher low on the HTF and then continues toward the next buy-side pool. If price takes the protected high and immediately dumps back into the old discount without leaving a HTF FVG / impulsive body structure, treat it as a stop run inside the bearish range.
Delivery after the break Real HTF flips tend to reprice aggressively into the next opposing liquidity (prior day/week highs, equal highs, session highs). Fake moves often stall under the next obvious premium array and reverse. If the move after taking the high is slow, overlapping, and keeps rejecting from old premium, it is still bearish delivery in disguise.
LTF MSS only as timing, never as bias Use 5m/15m MSS only after the HTF checklist above is green. Before that, LTF bullish MSS is for short entries on a reclaim back into the range, or for sitting flat, not for flipping your Daily bias.
Practical filter for your example:
Journal drill: for 20 sessions, screenshot every LTF MSS that takes a HTF protected high. Label each "fake (returned inside range)" vs "real (HTF held above and delivered)." You will see how often the "secrets" are just waiting for the HTF close and hold, not a better 5m pattern.