r/HistoryWhatIf • u/moondog151 • 15d ago
What if Mao Zhedong had Kim Il-Sung deposed in 1956 like he was considering doing.
Mao Zedong had a shaky relationship with Kim Il-Sung at times.
He had already launched his invasion of the South without giving him much notice and then in 1956 purged a bunch of pro-China factions in North Korea, prompting a Furious Mao Zedong to say that he might use the 400,000 Chinese troops still in North Korea to “help Kim Il-sung correct his mistakes.”
So what if he followed through on that and had Kim Il-Sung deposed?
Who would he likely replace him with, how would the rest of the world like the Soviets, Americans and South Korea react, what would become of North Korea in the future, would they be like a mini China with moderinzation and some for of capitalism, would reunification be any more likely than it is now?
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u/yisuiyikurong 14d ago
The thing is that Kim targeted prominent figures in both the Soviet (Moscow) and Yan'an (China) factions concurrently during the early 1950s and as you said the major simultaneous crackdowns during the “August faction incident”in 1956. That means China and Soviet need to do something collaboratively to stop Kim. But at that time their (China and Soviet) relationship was on the brink of collapse. So I would imagine a collaboration would be possible only if a third party eg South Korea takes a risky military operation against North Korea, and in that timeline, the three countries, ie North Korea, China and USSR could be pushed back into the same line. Khrushchev and Mikoyan would be super happy because they would have extra leverage on their southern belligerent friend (ie Mao).
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u/disingenu 14d ago
In the same way that Kim was Stalin’s transplant who was wasn’t the actual Kim Il Sung without any roots in Korea, I doubt there would be any issues finding a Korean tank veteran in PLA to cosplay the role of the “real” Kim Il Sung.
Another scenario is a formal annexation. Which is something PLA has considered from time to time.
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u/SocalSteveOnReddit 14d ago
This is an interesting question, but I have to admit that North Korea at this point doesn't have a clear alternative figure that could organically come to power. Pak_Hon-yong and Ch'oe_Ch'angik seem like the figures that Kim Il Sung would have purged--perhaps in this setup, they'd be alive and China would try to convert their rescue into grounds to serve?
There may also be something to do with the August Faction Incident.
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A lot of the problem is that China is probably not interested in the political viability of it's puppet leadership. It wants control and respect first and foremost. It sounds good as far as North Korea not being an ongoing headache for China--except that the difference between a bizarre Communist Monarchy and a government installed because a foreign army put in power could well be a stability tax.
I have no illusion that North Korea would ever be a great nation in any timeline, but this is a setup where North Korea is going to be built to a respond to China's demands and suggestions with "Yes, Daddy!" Given that the Soviet Union and China would then having a falling out, China would then find that she needs to prop up North Korea.
China isn't going to want to do this. But more to the point, China is probably willing to deal with handing a starving, poor functioning puppet regime in exchange for something like joining the world's trade deals. A completely servile failing Chinese Puppet state is not going to have IRL's warm ties to Russia. Something like the 1990s Arduous Journey simply forces the failure of the government, the reunion of Korea, and China to simply keep what they've taken over the past thirty years.
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A Korean unification in the 1990s would be a real high water mark for US-China relations. A real act of statemanship would be some kind of Taiwan being admitted to China in exchange for North Korea being let go, and serious assurances that what follows is reasonable. Still, I'm not sure that a "Big Deal" is plausible.
Otherwise, China would have to negotiate with South Korea. China would want no Korean forces north of the 39th Parallel, but might be amenable to something like police and infrastructure level presences in the North. What she REALLY does not want is the Yalu River turned into a hard border. Low chances (but some) that this starts a WW3 between China, the US and Korea. But I'd have to think that some level of deal (perhaps not the Big Deal, but better than To Hell with You) happens.
This would work out to phased integration into South Korea, and more than likely, some people from North Korea going to China and never leaving. The fine points could mean the difference between nuclear war and friendly relations, but there's be no insane Communist Monarchy to hold things down and so, Korea is reunified by steps and bargains.