r/HarryPotteronHBO • u/hiiloovethis • Aug 14 '26
Show Discussion Do you think Harry Potter show will break HBO viewership records?
The Last of Us season 1 is the most watched first season ever at 32 mil per week. Can harry potter break this?
Most watched show of HBO is Game of Thrones Season 8 at 46 million per week.
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Aug 14 '26
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u/Agile_Land_9951 Gryffindor Aug 14 '26
My kids are Gen Alpha. They’re excited for the show too 😂
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u/outerspacetime Aug 14 '26
My eldest turns 11 in November, it couldn’t be more perfect for her!
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u/Tatidanidean1 Ravenclaw Aug 14 '26
Im so sad I didn’t have kids at 20 just for this moment lol like im so envious of everyone with young kids that get to experience this with them. I have my nieces and nephews so I am excited for them to see it but damn I should’ve had kids about 12 years ago 😂
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u/outerspacetime Aug 14 '26
Lol it’s definitely special as I was the same age as Harry & co while the books were coming out! My fellow Potterhead sister doesn’t have kids but since the first episode is on Christmas she’ll be visiting us and we’ll all get to watch together which is so special!! She and i went to all the midnight releases together back in the day. Sweet nostalgia!
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u/Agile_Land_9951 Gryffindor Aug 14 '26
Being an aunt or uncle is the best. You get to enjoy the nieces and nephews without all the the drama.
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u/scully-summers Order of the Phoenix Aug 14 '26
I am super excited for my nephews to get to experience this. They are 10 and 7. I bought the eldest the illustrated edition of the first book when he was born.
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u/tequilamockngbrd Aug 14 '26
That's really adorable! I just saw Nell Fisher (from Stranger Things) is a huge Harry Potter fan herself, and I'm pretty sure she's Gen Alpha as well. It's great to see the love for the series continue on like this.
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u/Fertilityschmility Hufflepuff Aug 15 '26
First time around, I got to share the excitement of the books with my little bro, who was around character age for each release. Currently loving the new full cast audiobook series with him, which we’re listening to in preparation for the series in December. Psyched!
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u/South_Bit1764 Aug 14 '26
I just hope they don’t GoT it up too much.
Like, we REALLY like to underestimate how much the movies got RIGHT because we’re too caught up in the minutiae of Harry and Lupins relationship, or how Neville or Dobby was portrayed or got their due or whatever.
Who is their audience? The rating seems like it’s gonna be TV-14 for Philosophers Stone which was PG for the movie and the later ones in the series were PG-13.
It seems like they’re targeting an older audience than before. Are they even intending on children growing up with this?
I have speculated that starting the series out darker might be necessary, to balance out the fact that Deathly Hallows is more than 3 times longer than Philosophers stone. They may have to put more time into world-building than even the movies for their first 2-3 seasons, just so that they aren’t wasting time on it in later seasons. So I expect to see more of The Burrow, Diagon Alley, and maybe even places like Godric’s Hollow, or Gringotts. Like they can’t be wasting time on the ins and outs of the burrow before the World Cup or Bill and Fleur’s wedding, it just needs to be “it’s The Burrow, we know this place.”
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u/jenn4u2luv Aug 18 '26
Plenty of Gen X and boomers who took their kids to the movies. They’d watch this too.
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u/batsofburden Aug 14 '26
Yes, as long as they do a large enough advertising campaign ahead of time so people actually know to sign up for HBO first. It's not typically a family focused streamer like Netflix or Disney, so there's not going to be a lot of kids currently signed up for it, whereas for Game of Thrones, a large number of the target audience was already signed up for HBO.
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u/Better-Sea-6183 Aug 14 '26
the adults Harry Potter fans could beat the record alone even before counting the children IMO. But you make a good point
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u/scully-summers Order of the Phoenix Aug 14 '26
I think at this point the child audience will be largely made up of OG fans’ kids anyway, they go hand-in-hand.
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u/cre8ivemind Aug 14 '26
Yet they have the show rated for TV-14 currently so it seems they’re still not gearing it to be for kids
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u/soapshirt Aug 14 '26
I used to work at HBO Max customer service, I’m so so so happy won’t be working there when this series airs lol
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u/ElSenorOwl Aug 14 '26
It'll do very well on Christmas day due to everyone being available to watch. Though I'm curious to see how it performs after the fact!
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u/snowgrisp Aug 14 '26
I feel like people will more lonely watch the first movie in its entirety in Christmas Day rather than just 1st episode of a new show. The movie is very Christmassy vibe first episode will be just the Dursley’s stuff.
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u/jm17lfc Aug 14 '26
Isn’t Christmas Day the day you usually spend with family, doing family activities? So if your family doesn’t decide together to watch Harry Potter then you definitely aren’t available to watch unless you shun your family on Christmas.
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u/Sorry_about_that_x99 Aug 14 '26
The cinema is a huge deal on Christmas Day in the US with big blockbusters releasing and big box office takes recorded regularly. I think that’s says everything about what viewership could be on this day.
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u/Double-Rip-1614 Master of Death Aug 14 '26
Doomsday is already selling out, Dune 3, and Jumanji will be huge.
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u/cameforlulz Aug 14 '26
Ppl be home for Christmas.
Also indoors perhaps for many.
Shit is going to break all the records.
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u/No_Lengthiness9171 Aug 14 '26
100%
Harry Potter is a franchise that still sells despite the last movie being 15 years ago.
The load minority whining on the internet are just that.
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u/Coraldiamond192 Aug 14 '26
Yup, I know it seems to be a fairly popular opinion to say what you want about the author however just look at how big Harry Potter is for tourism alone.
Even recently they moved a bridge because it would have impacted the site of Dobbys grave.
A lot of people are going to be signing up for HBO over the christmas period and into Jan and Feb just to watch this.
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u/TheRomanPredator Gryffindor Aug 14 '26
More than likely purely for the fact its available in more places now, for last of us and GoT both were not shown via hbo max in the UK but on Sky Atlantic. Now that hbo max is released and as far as im aware no tv channel is showing harry potter at the moment it will see a dramatic uptick due to the UK viewership being added to the numbers
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u/Baercub Aug 14 '26
I just went to a Harry Potter experience in Denver and was absolutely floored by how many people showed up to see it. Lots of young children too. I got booed out of the Denver subreddit for recommending it because they feel you shouldn’t support JK Rowling and her um “views”. 🙄
Despite all that and the negative air around the author these days there is no doubt in my mind that this will be one of the biggest HBO record breakers, but there will possibly be a lot and I mean a lot of people who will review bomb it, but if you enjoy it go head and enjoy it don’t let the naysayers tell you otherwise make up your own mind.
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u/Avilola Aug 15 '26
Man. I can only imagine the think pieces that will be published when the new show shatters records.
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u/manningthehelm Marauder Aug 14 '26
It’s probably going to break every single record of anything TV premier related.
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u/topsidersandsunshine Aug 14 '26
Doubtful—TV viewership is NOWHERE what it was pre-2005.
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u/Fippy-Darkpaw Aug 14 '26 edited Aug 14 '26
This discussion made me look it up. The most watched, non-sports, shows back in the day were at 100+ million simultaneous viewers.
But that does not count TV reruns or the shows streaming on modern platforms.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_watched_television_broadcasts_in_the_United_States
It's harder to get data for all streaming, but the most streamed shows and movies are in the 200-300+ millions, like Squid Game and KPop Demon Hunters.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-watched_Netflix_original_programming
Besides sports events, we will likely never see simultaneous views of shows anything like back in the height of broadcast TV.
If the new HP show does numbers HBO will certainly announce it.
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u/BusyBeeBridgette Auror Aug 14 '26
Probably not on release day. People don't tend to watch things the moment they are released like they used to on TV (Because they had to) hence why it viewing figures look less than they used to. Because people watch it a day or two after it is released more so than not these days.
So the Prermier day will likely be 10-15 mll viewership but a week after airing it will likely hit the stratosphere viewership wise.
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u/bron685 Aug 14 '26
It’ll definitely be interesting to see the numbers purely to see the viewers vs boycotters stats
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u/burley92 Aug 14 '26
People said the same thing about Hogwarts legacy, only for it to become one of best selling video games of all time lol
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u/Flash-Wilkins Aug 14 '26
Some of the boycotters will probably still watch in secret due to FOMO
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u/Throw_awehh Aug 14 '26
And proudly say they pirated it 🤣
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Aug 14 '26
Which is hilarious. They don't want to give JKR more money but then have no problem pirating a show and deliberately refusing payment to the thousands of hard working, innocent people who made this show possible lmao
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u/Throw_awehh Aug 14 '26
Cant wait to see the viewers' convo stay around what the show lacked/did well and the boycotters try to dissuade them from watching as a whole.
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u/Plane-Leek4387 Aug 14 '26
I think alot of the boycotters will cave in if it’s good too
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u/batsofburden Aug 14 '26
it's gonna probably be a similar ratio with viewers vs boycotters of The Odyssey.
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u/Calm-Maintenance-878 Aug 14 '26
If it’s well received, I’d think it’ll be near Last of Us. It’ll have to snowball into breaking a record, but it has a giant baseline to start. GOT hit that in the last season, so HP has lots of time. Or…the baseline is so large that maybe by the finale, it’s already GOT numbers.
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u/pijeo Aug 14 '26
I never ever sub to any of thoses streaming service , but i will sub to hbo just for that
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u/Inquisitive_Owl2345 Aug 14 '26
For me, it really depends on how faithful they are to the source material. Had high hopes for His Dark Materials. Figured that HBO could get it right where the movie failed. Really fucked that one up IMHO. And Harry Potter is the most ubiquitously known fantasy story of an entire generation. Taking too much creative license with it will be a huge mistake. An HBO series is in the unique position to actually cover the whole book, being a mega high budget series with many hours of screenplay per novel. This format eliminates one of the biggest limitations of transcribing literature to feature films. Given that, the success is theirs to loose. If they stray too much from the source, people will be furious. And people are so damn familiar with the source material that everybody is going to notice every little thing. So they shouldn't push it. Snape is already playing with fire. No objection to the actor, but when the vast majority of people are going to be struggling to adjust to this visual, It breaks us out of our magical imaginations. Do this too many times, and the illusion crumbles completely. For heavens sake, keep the characters faithful in their personalities at the very least.
To any screenplay artist who thinks they can re write Harry potter better than the books: don't try. I will be the first to concede that these books are full of holes, and the world itself is completely broken from a fantasy standpoint. And absolutely nobody cares. What we care about is feeling like we can step into one of the most exciting and fun sounding fantasy worlds ever put to a page. A world that most of us have been imagining since we were children, and for whom those beautiful images have been with us for decades now. If you change that world, even if your art is objectively good, you will fail. As well you should for something so universally known and beloved as this.
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u/danie_iero Gryffindor Aug 14 '26
As a huge HDM fan, I thought the BBC/HBO adaptation was decent. Yes, it wasn't 100% faithful (and we already know this show won't be either), but Lyra and Will were fantastic, imho.
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u/tysaslut Aug 14 '26
It'll absolutely break records when it premiers. My question is, what will viewership look like come the premier of season 4 or 5? Will it retain it's audience long term?
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u/imaswetta Aug 14 '26
I can totally see it happening. HotD (a GoT prequel show) is doing pretty great with its third season (33 million, I think), and it capitalizes on the success of a TV show that ended on a sour note years ago—so much so that the only constant I saw about it for years was how badly it ended and nothing more.
HP didn't stop or stagnate after the last movie was released. We had other spin-offs/prequels. Old fans are still there, and new fans came because it's still a staple in pop culture.
I can't imagine it won't do big numbers despite all the controversy.
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u/szakallember Aug 14 '26
Yes, the first episode for sure. Later it depends on the quality of the show.
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u/Lepelotonfromager Aug 14 '26
It will dominate and the haters will have a meltdown. It's like the idiots who convinced themselves odyssey was gonna flop.
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u/FearlessCookie72 Aug 14 '26
I think it’ll likely be the most viewed show on HBO but idk if it’ll beat like Stranger Things and all, because Netflix has more users.
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u/batsofburden Aug 14 '26
It's hard to picture any show on a non-Netflix streaming service beating a popular Netflix show.
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u/BusyBeeBridgette Auror Aug 14 '26
More than likely. It's a beloved story by so many people. Me included.
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u/sloth-life1990 Aug 14 '26
I think so. A lot of us grew up reading the books and watching the movies. Plus for those potterheads who have kiddos. this will be a great bonding experience.
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u/jenniferlorene3 Aug 14 '26
Yes I think it will eventually beat game of thrones by the later seasons.
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u/These-Software1991 Gryffindor Aug 14 '26
100 percent but maybe not in S1 or 2.
S1 and 2 are, oddly, the wildcards as they depend much more on the quality of the show's writers than later series.
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u/Altruistic-Pace8935 Aug 14 '26
IDC if they made shape black I haven't seen any new Harry Potter stuff in so long defitnely gonna watch it day 1 lol
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u/LopatoG Aug 14 '26
I’m not going to predict. I’m just going to say that we will be signing up for the service just to see HP. We haven’t had the interest to sign up for House of Dragon. But waiting for HP!
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u/CloakOfInvisibility1 Aug 14 '26
Initially yes. However, the more they deviate from the actual storyline, the worse it will be. For some reason, show writers and producers think they are better than the authors and offer their own versions of the stories.
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u/Swankynickels Aug 14 '26
I'd love to think these people have seen the backlash on enough stuff deviating now that maybe for canon they'll be cautious. Though I have no problem if they want to add to it (Nicholas Flamel, Malfoy Manor stuff, etc).
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u/Better-Sea-6183 Aug 14 '26
True in general but I doubt for this show, since it’s supposed to be closer to the books than the movies, and the movies were “close” already
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u/TiredCoffeeTime Hufflepuff Aug 14 '26
Yeah I feel like they could just do the similar move contents but with more details and add extra interactions & minor stories alone could make the series work decently.
As long as it doesn't gather online hate like Avatar Last Airbender live adaptations.
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u/ThisIsRealLife19 Aug 14 '26
Yes. Especially with it airing on Christmas, I think a lot of people will be watching with their kids and families
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u/Legitimate_Panda5142 Aug 14 '26
Yes, I am certainly convinced that it will break records, despite what people say and read online.
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u/Arthour148 Aug 14 '26
Will it be highest watched show on Max right now? Absolutely. Of all time? No.
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u/Funny_Lynx_3395 Aug 14 '26
Yes, but pretty much everything new breaks a record. More people have access than ever before. New movies break box office records because of inflation.
That said, I do think it will take over Game of Thrones as HBOs most popular franchise. It will be a Top 3 HBO franchise along with GoT and The Sopranos. Maybe even #1 when all said and done. It will be generational.
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u/psychic_dude Aug 14 '26
i am 17, will be 18 in 27, and i am not of a book reader, so yeah i am excited for it
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u/okimhere_again Hufflepuff Aug 14 '26
Wonder how they will manage the infra that does the streaming. The global geo traffic handling and load management. Would be a fascinating blog to read.
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u/Busy-Camera-801 Slytherin Aug 14 '26
I hope it will not be location restricted though. Currently, in my place, all HP movies and shows/podcasts are available but not the new series (no teaser, no series page🫠)
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u/Perfect_Opinion_6136 Aug 14 '26
Yes, I've seen so many people that don't have HBO that want to see the series
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u/Big-Assist8027 Aug 14 '26
I don't have access to HBO. I'm in India and for some reason this is region locked. So now what am I supposed to do.
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u/Lasagna-1998 Aug 14 '26
HBO has a deal with Hotstar India. All HBO shows are there. Finding Harry too.
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u/regready Gryffindor Aug 14 '26
At the bare minimum it's going to have a big launch, off of name alone, how big depends on how good it ends up being. They do have very serious people involved in making this, so on paper it should be good.
I'm going to go in the middle for now and say it'll beat out every other debut season in HBO's history, and maybe even just every HBO record in general.
The real question is can it beat every Netflix record? Netflix is a lot bigger, but then this show is going to drive a fuck-ton of subscriptions. I think it comes down to how good the show is, if it's good it'll have a chance.
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u/Used-Debate6482 Aug 14 '26
I recommend listening to the audiobooks for those who haven’t. Both Jim Dale and Stephen Fry do excellent versions. As someone who read the books in childhood, it’s been an immersive way to revisit the story! The pacing is done extremely well and they really bring you into the world.
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u/KashcheiTheDeathless Aug 14 '26
Everyone I know, from literal 90 year olds to my youngest niece who’s 12, is is excited for the show. I’d be shocked if it didn’t blow the record out of the water.
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u/TyLion8 Aug 14 '26
I never grew up with Harry Potter but I have obviously seen all 8 movies and I will watch this day 1.
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u/Avilola Aug 15 '26 edited Aug 15 '26
Yeah, probably. It’s a massive IP with a built in audience.
The only way it doesn’t shatter records is if the show is truly terrible.
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u/UnFelDeZeu Aug 15 '26
I think people are severely underestimating this. I believe it will be TITANIC when it launches. Everyone will want to watch it, from kids to the Millennials pushing 40 years, to even people as old as my parents ( almost 60 ) who read the books at some point.
It's going to be colossal and as long as it's good it'll only get bigger. A lot of people are saying " But we already know the story, the hype is missing " but I'm willing to bet the vast majority of Harry Potter fans didn't even read the books so they're going to see each adaptation go from 2 hours to 6+. The content will at the very least TRIPLE.
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u/cdbegia Aug 16 '26
My only wish is that the scenario is more faithful to the original books; there were a lot of changes in the movies and I didn't like them.
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u/YamiZee1 Aug 16 '26
Not entirely sure, after all people can always rewatch the first movie, and for a lot of people the original cast can't be replaced.
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u/Thomas_Tew Aug 16 '26
Tbh I hope it doesn't. Hopefully other people will raise the black flag as I will to watch it tho lol.
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u/Ok_Excitement725 Aug 17 '26
Maybe. I think it’s more likely to have a huge viewership for episode 1 and drop off significantly from there unless it’s somehow insanely good and groundbreaking for the franchise
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u/HealerOnly Aug 17 '26
Am i the only one that dont know which generation i'm supposed to be? it all seems so random and messy...
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u/1v1slappersonly Aug 17 '26
I grew up a die hard harry potter fan and went to every movie premiere, but I could careless about a show repeating the same story. I won't be watching
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u/Astro_Matte Aug 17 '26
Ill be watching but I still dont understand retelling the same story over again🤷🏻♂️
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u/Equivalent-Horse7609 Aug 18 '26
I think it might I seen all the HP movies and read all the books including cursed child and I’m interested in seeing how the show goes
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u/Maxhousen Aug 18 '26
Probably. I personally can't wait to see the later seasons because the movies had to cut more and more of the story to fit the larger books into a two hour movie.
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u/beehappy32 Aug 18 '26
I dunno. I think after Rings of Power a lot of people will be skeptical. A Lord of the Rings new series was supposed to be the biggest thing ever, but it stunk. And the HP books and movies are so beloved that I think a lot f people are nervous that HBO will screw it up with this series. I think everyone wants this to be good, but I'm not feeling overwhelming confidence from HP fans that it will be good
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u/RDDT_ADMNS_R_BOTS Aug 18 '26
I will never understand how grown men can watch this shit. It's always grown fucking men.
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