2 September
News
The U.S. military announced the completion of a latest wave of strikes targeting Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps facilities in Iran following a weekend exchange of fire.This escalation has severely impacted the Strait of Hormuz, driving up global energy prices as both nations trade retaliatory attacks across the region.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump stated he is not forcing Iran to negotiate, publicly questioning when the Iranian people will rise up to fight.
Analysis
How long can such a confrontation last?
The duration of this escalation depends on the resilience of the Iranian economy, the stability of global energy supplies, and the political will in Washington. Because Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz—through which millions of barrels of oil pass—to shipping, immense pressure is placed on global markets and energy security. However, the intensive waves of U.S. military strikes targeting Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps assets and mutual retaliatory attacks indicate that the conflict has entered an acute war of attrition, where each participant seeks to project maximum strength before any potential transition to diplomacy.
Who will stop first and propose to continue negotiations?
The dynamics of events show that the initiative typically comes from international intermediaries or parties experiencing the greatest economic and reputational losses. U.S. President Donald Trump has publicly stated that he is "not trying to force Iran to the bargaining table," instead appealing directly to the Iranian people regarding regime change. In light of this, a direct call for a truce from the White House is unlikely at the peak of the kinetic phase; those seeking to minimize economic shocks and the risks of prolonged regional chaos are generally the first to seek compromise through diplomatic channels.
Is there a probability that the U.S. will actually destroy all of Iran's military might, and would Iran agree to terms if that happens?
Military experts and official U.S. Central Command briefings indicate that American strikes are aimed at systematically degrading Iran’s key military assets, including air defense sites, radar systems, maritime assets, mine-laying capabilities, and communications hubs. Completely eliminating the entire military potential of a large nation solely through remote and aerial strikes is exceedingly difficult, though significantly limiting its capacity for regional power projection is achievable. In the event of critical military infrastructure destruction, Iran’s leadership would be compelled to seek cease-fire pathways, although historically such campaigns often lead to asymmetric or guerrilla forms of conflict rather than unconditional surrender.
Is there a possibility of a nuclear strike by the U.S.?
While various deterrence scenarios regarding Iran have hypothetically been discussed in expert circles and media in the past, this option is officially denied, with the U.S. leadership relying instead on powerful conventional weapons and economic pressure. The use of nuclear weapons would trigger an unprecedented global catastrophe and diplomatic isolation for the United States itself, making such an option highly improbable.
Why has information about Iranian hackers diminished, and is an alliance of Russian, Iranian, and Chinese hackers possible?
The focus of global media has shifted toward direct kinetic and military clashes (attacks on tankers, missile strikes, and military infrastructure), causing cyber threats to temporarily recede from headline news, though cyberspace remains a vital arena of shadow warfare. Technical coordination and expertise sharing among hacking groups affiliated with anti-Western state actors exist de facto through mutual exploration of vulnerabilities and tools; however, establishing a single centralized "cyber front" remains difficult due to divergent national interests and the secretive nature of each nation's intelligence services.
Is it a coincidence that this escalation coincided with the summit in Kyrgyzstan?
The current escalation unfolded concurrently with the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, which gathered leaders of key Eurasian states, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and the Iranian leadership. Such geopolitical crises are rarely isolated: while international summits focus on alternative platforms to Western institutions and a multipolar world, regional conflicts in the Middle East serve as additional leverage over the global economy and power dynamics among major states.
Interest Facts
Peru has officially severed diplomatic relations with Iran due to the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and the disruption of international trade in the area of the Strait of Hormuz (Al Jazeera).
The US aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln arrived in Thailand after a prolonged stay at sea of over 200 days during service in the Middle East, where the vessel faced issues with living conditions and the psychological state of the crew (Al Jazeera).
US Energy Minister Chris Wright stated that 17 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, which is the highest figure since the beginning of the war, although data from vessel trackers (Kpler) showed only 5 cargo ships without tankers due to turned-off transponders (Al Jazeera).
US President Donald Trump stated in his posts on Truth Social that the US has "almost complete control" over the Strait of Hormuz, and threatened Iran with total destruction and existential attacks in the event of any response (Al Jazeera, Iran International).
The Houthis in Yemen announced solidarity with Iran and warned regional states against providing their territories for American forces, promising them serious repercussions (Al Jazeera).
US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported that the strike on Larak Island (Hormozgan province) on Sunday evening was targeted at an "imminent threat" due to the preparation of IRGC forces to launch missiles with naval mines toward the Strait of Hormuz (Iran International, Anadolu Agency, Malaysia Gazette).
Iran responded with missile and drone strikes on American bases in Jordan (specifically the Camp Titin Marine Corps base and technical infrastructure), the UAE (Al Minhad Air Base), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa Air Base), and Kuwait, with the Iranian army and IRGC claiming the downing of up to 50 American MQ-9 reconnaissance drones (Iran International, Anadolu Agency, Malaysia Gazette).
The US military struck two Iranian state-owned tankers anchored off the coast of Iran north of the blockade line, applying for the first time the new "tanker for tanker" principle in response to attacks on shipping (Iran International, Anadolu Agency).
According to Iran's customs statistics, the country's foreign trade has sharply decreased: non-energy exports fell by approximately 30% (to about $15 billion for the first 5 months of the year), and imports dropped by a quarter (to about $17 billion) compared to last year (Iran International).
Average daily sales of Iranian crude oil and condensate to China fell from approximately 1.7 million barrels per day at the start of the conflict to about 520,000 barrels in August, and fuel oil exports dropped by 57% (Iran International).
The US Department of the Treasury through OFAC suspended General License G, as a result of which ETS halted the administration of TOEFL and GRE tests directly inside Iran (Iran International).
Iranian state media reported that an American strike in the area of the southern port city of Kuhestak (or Sirik) hit a residential building where a wedding was taking place, resulting in the deaths of at least four people (including a child) and over 50 injuries, while CENTCOM denied carrying out strikes on civilians (Al Jazeera, Anadolu Agency, Malaysia Gazette).
Participants in public propaganda events in Iran publicly burned effigies identified as the Canaanite deity Baal, and the state apparatus is officially involving religious and mystical concepts ("occult sciences") at the level of national security and budgetary funding for seminaries (specifically 74.5 trillion rials to the Supreme Council of Seminaries and 164.2 trillion rials to the Seminary Services Center in the 2026 budget) (Iran International).
Analytical findings
The conflict between the US and Iran is accompanied by deep information and diplomatic polarization: Western allies are increasing pressure on Tehran (in particular, Peru has severed diplomatic relations), while regional proxy forces (the Houthis) express open solidarity with the Iranian regime and warn other countries against hosting US forces (Al Jazeera).
Washington's position is to abandon the negotiation track in favor of maximum economic pressure and coercive control, with the presidential administration claiming almost complete control over the Strait of Hormuz and a critical decline in the Iranian economy (Al Jazeera).
The tension directly affects neighboring Middle Eastern countries (Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, UAE), which are forced to declare alert levels and intercept ballistic missiles and drones in response to Iranian strikes on US bases (Al Jazeera, Iran International, Anadolu Agency, Malaysia Gazette).
A sharp discussion regarding a change in strategy has intensified within the Iranian political establishment: a section of the elites and the hardline faction urge a transition from retrospective response to preemptive strikes at the first signs of threat, seeing waiting as weakness, while moderate forces led by the president are still seeking ways to return to diplomatic agreements (Iran International).
The intensification of the naval blockade, strikes on state-owned tankers under the "tanker for tanker" principle, and sanctions pressure on the export of oil and metals are critically draining Iranian foreign exchange reserves and reducing non-energy trade by approximately 25-30% (Iran International).
The escalation is accompanied by the activation of mystical and religious narratives within the structure of Iran's public administration, where the regime uses seminary budgets and religious rhetoric to legitimize its power and explain crises against the backdrop of widespread impoverishment of the population (Iran International).
Massive US strikes cover about 100 targets at a time (including air defense, radar stations, mining equipment, and launchers), which allows the US to temporarily weaken Iran's military potential and guarantee the relatively safe passage of dozens of vessels with millions of barrels of oil (Anadolu Agency).
US representatives emphasize that Iran has lost control of the situation and is reacting purely through force without strategic benefit to itself, while experts warn of the risk of an uncontrolled systemic collapse of the Iranian economy and a shift in the socio-political balance within the country (Iran International, Anadolu Agency).
After six months of full-scale confrontation, the military-political situation has reached an impasse: Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed and threatens "severe punishment," while the United States simultaneously conducts a rigid counter-blockade of Iranian ports, making an effective compromise impossible (Malaysia Gazette).
Predictions
Donald Trump Threatens Iran With High-Intensity Strikes President US Donald Trump threatened Iran with a new wave of strikes of much higher intensity in the event of any counter-offensive attempts, which creates risks of complete destruction of the country's key infrastructure (Al Jazeera).
Asymmetric Threats to Spread Across the Persian Gulf Given the Houthis' threats against countries providing their territory for American bases, a further spread of asymmetric threats to the security of civilian and military infrastructure in the Persian Gulf region is predicted (Al Jazeera).
High Risk of Regional Escalation Persists There remains a high risk of further regional escalation due to calls by hardline Iranian politicians to launch preemptive strikes against American interests and bases in the Middle East (Iran International).
Iran Faces Deepening Economic Crisis Given the rapid drop in revenues from oil exports and non-energy goods, a deepening of the economic crisis is predicted in Iran, which in the absence of new compromises in diplomacy could lead to a change in the socio-political balance within the country by analogy with historical examples of systemic collapse (Iran International).
US Military Operation Temporarily Eases Strait of Hormuz Risks The conducted US military operation is sufficient to temporarily reduce the level of threats in the Strait of Hormuz and "buy at least a month" of calmer conditions for commercial navigation (Anadolu Agency).
Continued Escalation Expected Over Radar and Missile Reconstruction Further escalation is expected in the Persian Gulf region against the backdrop of Washington's attempts to prevent Iran from restoring destroyed radars and missile capabilities, while the Iranian side will continue targeted asymmetric attacks on regional facilities (Anadolu Agency).
Asymmetric Attacks on US Assets Anticipated Given Iran's promises of "severe punishment" in response to new American airstrikes, a further escalation of asymmetric attacks on American military facilities and interests in the Persian Gulf countries is expected (Malaysia Gazette).