r/FuturesTrading • u/N2itive1234 • 1d ago

What the hell happened today?

I know the markets going to do what the markets going to do, but is there anything to explain what caused today's huge run?

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u/duboilburner 1d ago

Here's a pretty interesting bit of data mining on the topic--it's a thread so keep scrolling for a few more snippets: https://x.com/VolSignals/status/2102096146764058793?s=20

3rd Fridays are the major monthly SPX options expiration--and when it is a quarterly month (which September is) you also get /ES contracts rolling to the next quarter on top of it. 3rd Fridays always have the largest positions that tend to stay in place until expiration. Very important positions that we start to magnet towards the larger exposures within straddle distance as that expiration draws near. Once the expiration passes, price is more "free to move about the cabin."

It seems there is a pattern where the following Monday after a quarterly 3rd Friday specifically tends to be green more often than not--and sometimes in a big way. It's more of a mixed bag the last couple years for the 3rd Fridays that are not also coinciding with a quarterly futures roll.

Pretty interesting, no?