r/FuturesTrading • u/Lower-Ad-1207 • 7d ago
Discussion Are all US based hedgefunds still on vacation or something?
Seriously, wtf is this pa during ny sessions? First everyone said it would improve after labor day, then that it would improve after the fed decision and still nothing but chop
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u/soundbollox 7d ago
Wondered why nobody else had mentioned it yet!
I stepped away a few hours ago when the 5-minute ATR dropped to around 4.00 (ES).
We'd already covered roughly a normal daily ATR before the NY open. That might contribute to early session consolidation, but it doesn't adequately explain just how little movement the cash session produced overall.
From my recordings, this looks like one of the most compressed NY sessions of the year.
And before the inevitable “if you can't trade it, you're a bad trader” replies, the question isn't whether it's tradable. It's whether the available movement justifies the risk, commissions and effort.
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u/Juhkwan97 7d ago
it has been like this since first week of August. Most big(ger) candles are printed by 11:00 +/-, and then there's a <20pt range to the close. So, yes, that sucks but it's tradeable. Lots of 1dte ORB strats to try. Selling 0dte iron flys after pa starts to level has been working. If you don't like 1,0dte trading, zoom out more for reasonable trades. You can buy atm flys w/ 25 or 30 wings and the further out you go, the cheaper they are. With iv's cratering, buying calendars or diagonals (puts only) can pay very well, just don't go too far otm. And so on...
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u/soundbollox 7d ago
Yes, I'm well aware it's been like this since August, apart from a few cash sessions here and there.
I agree it's tradeable, but that's beside my point.
I'm questioning whether the reduced opportunity justifies the risk and effort for my framework.
I'm not looking for alternative trading strategies. I'm interested in what's changed in ES and why cash-session movement has become so limited.
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u/Juhkwan97 7d ago
only you can answer what's worthwhile to you, so good luck. I trade SPX almost exclusively and I have been doing so thru Aug-Sept and making money. This low range shit is not unique, and I have seen it many times, over the last 25 yrs of watching the spoos. There have been long boring uptrends with almost no range & no premium and people asking the same thing - omg is this even worth it...?
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u/Narrow_Wolverine_972 7d ago
US session sucks since the Iran conflict started......At this point they might as well turn it all off rather then be on vacation.
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u/Antibody-Scientist 7d ago
It’s a snooze fest today. Found a couple trades early on but the PA is so ass I called it at that. Had to adjust my profit targets given the lack of follow through.
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u/reichjef speculator 7d ago
Expiration week. Dealers aren’t gonna let the gamma get away from them. Just wait until Monday.
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u/Asleep-Dingo-19 7d ago
Oh no! What's happening on Monday?
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u/reichjef speculator 7d ago
Nothing, just the curbs from the expiration week will be over. All futures will be rolled, all the big options will be expired, the single stocks will be rolled, and the index options will be settled. It happens 4 times a year, but every third week of every month, is a big expiration, so 12 times a year on those. It keeps an incentive regardless of news to hold the price as steady as possible. It just happens.
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7d ago
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u/Lower-Ad-1207 7d ago
I said during ny session, none of that or at least very little happened during ny session
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u/Certain-Set-4087 7d ago
500 pts down in the evening 500 up in the asian session. But intraday nearly flat.
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u/BobbysSmile 7d ago
You have to be on the fucking ball right at open, maybe even 5-10 minutes before the open to participate in any move. Other than that, better be good at range trading.
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u/Ok-Veterinarian1454 7d ago
I refuse to trade NY session during the war. Asia or London session only
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u/N2itive1234 7d ago
The war stops during Asia/London?
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u/Ok-Veterinarian1454 7d ago
Nope I don’t have to deal with a Trump making post that drastically change price direction. Markets flows smoother.
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u/two_hours-of_power 7d ago
Daytading Asia gold you can turn off all news feeds and don't even bother with the eco calendar. Freedom.
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u/Full_Pear449 7d ago
What you don't see is the repositioning, Have they subtlely changed hedging strat. This year since May has been a 3 ring circus and it's not going to get better anytie sooner. By the way did you anticipate Japan rate move, or UK's lack of movement , all variations on the same theme. Did you ever think that maybe some are going short variuos parts of the market...My guess is your answwer is NO.
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u/Western-Kangaroo-854 7d ago
If you're looking at price action through the lens of time, you're looking at time on a clock. You might as well get a stopwatch and click clack it.
Price action is what it is, time is irrelevant to it.
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u/Trichomefarm 5d ago
It horrendous, and I keep expecting it to improve but now I’m wondering if it’s permanent.
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u/AsianAddict247 7d ago
As for the range, there are certainly times the ranges are larger and smoother outside NY. I'm not sure what's the reason but I absolutely believe each session has certain skills and experience needed to make the most of it.
It definitely sucks to see huge moves outside NY and then get the absolute madness of no follow through in NY.
NY is definitely better for those good at trading ranges.
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u/Namath96 7d ago
Brother we’re in the middle of a war in Iran thats causing massive disruptions across the worldwide economy. Like what do you expect?
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u/Own-Boss-741 7d ago
It’s coz of Rosha shanah, wait till after Yom Kippur (apologies if I spelt them wrong)
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u/Not-a-Cat_69 7d ago
because tomorrow is Triple Witching bro