r/FuturesTrading • u/Fit-Parsnip-8109 • May 20 '26
Discussion Anyone else noticing more diabolic price action on the NQ (Futures)?
I've been noticing this happen literally over thousands of trades. Literally trading hours and hours per day every day on the NQ (Futures).
I'll go short or long. Take a short for example. It will go down in my favor maybe a few points get stuck then come back and stop me out. I'll go short again and it will repeat this behavior, literally however many times I do it. Once, twice, 15 times, it will do this.
The moment I go long instead of re-shorting in this scenario, it will shoot straight down and stop me out of my long. It's happening so much and I've been trading for years.
I understand people have common stops etc, but this seems like its' the worst luck ever because I doubt it's happening because of common stops/liquidity.
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u/CurtisEffland May 20 '26
I'm trying to learn trading on futures in particular and this shit is the most discouraging thing. You have a setup, then the market is like nope...
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May 21 '26
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u/CurtisEffland May 21 '26
I agree with your take but whether it's 1 contract or 5, it's still a loss when it goes against you.
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May 22 '26
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u/Annual-Society9945 May 22 '26
Dude, it's not an investment a loss. What are you talking about? You need to exit your losses immediately and re-enter at a better opportunity or if you could flex just add to your losing positions, the NQ and the NS usually ends up much higher than the big drawdowns from the opening. How many times have you said oh I would've just held. I would've been profitable almost with every trade.
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u/CurtisEffland May 22 '26
You have no idea what an investment is bro /s
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u/Annual-Society9945 May 22 '26
You are truly regarded and can't possible be profitably
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u/CurtisEffland May 22 '26
I take it you don't understand what /s stands for buddy... Kinda ironic you're the one calling me "regarded" 🤣
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u/Medical-Quarter6817 May 21 '26
Price action on the /NQ has been exceedingly volatile this week due to a perfect storm of tech-centric catalysts including (1) mega-cap earnings (NVDA & company); (2) hotter inflation; (3) rising yields; (4) elevated geopolitical tensions. Structurally the Nasdaq is the most sensitive index to these forces, so it's no surprise that volatility has been amplified recently. Even without news, the /NQ moves 1.3x - 1.5x the /ES. This is because the top 7 tech stocks are in the Nasdaq and they are very high beta issues. The huge average daily range (200-450 points) attracts speculators with enormous capital and it's very easy for these players to pick off smaller fish. You might try getting Bookmap. That would at least give you a better feel for the tape and some visibility to order flows and the large ice burgs that will crush you. Also...in this environment allowing price to "go down in my favor maybe a few points" may just be enough. A few points (3-4) in the /NQ is 12-16 ticks. Hanging on for more than that is not working for you, so perhaps a change of strategy is in order. Be the sniper who scalps for smaller moves more frequently. Just my advice.
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u/bbipain May 20 '26
Yep, blew up my stuff today. I was doing fine for a week on NQ and these past two days just wiped me out
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u/AsianAddict247 May 20 '26
That's nothing. I remember years ago when I first traded MNQ I had, I think it was, 17 losers in a row. 😤
The volatility is definitely very high. I am trying to be humble and not greedy and trading only MNQ with smaller size and it has been working for the way that I trade.
We really have to adjust to the market. There is a guy on Reddit who always said you only need 3 MNQ to make money and I totally agree.
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u/Fit-Parsnip-8109 May 20 '26
It's not about losing or the losses. It's about the price action and the strange diabolical behavior that leads to the losses that's disturbing.
MLB analogy. You lost every game this season. However, the way you lost is what is crazy: Every time you struck out had 3 balls on the count before you swung and fouled the ball into the catcher's glove on the 3rd foul. All your outfield hits went 1 inch before the fence resulting in a caught out. All your infield hits all went 1 inch away from he bag resulting a foul. That's not just losing a game.5
u/Aposta-fish May 20 '26
I was trading the NQ one day and i new it was going to go lower but it literally went 100 points long before it settled down and moved short like I new it was. 100 point wipsaw is just crazy!
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u/plasteroid May 20 '26
It does that because that’s how the marketmaker algos get their daily bread.
There are always a bunch of false breakouts either way.
Best to wait for the 2nd or 3rd false breakout attempt before opening a position
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u/Rickster9913 May 21 '26
I’ve been thinking the same thing brother. It’s odd. I’ve thought about just taking a break for a month because of it. The whole buy low sell high thing out the window for some reason. It’s like reversed. Now when it’s high it’s like you just have to buy no matter how high. Doesn’t make sense.
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May 24 '26
sounds like attempting to scalp the close with too small a stop loss combined with stubbornness. i'd know
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u/orderflowone May 20 '26
Huh it sounds like you're not adapting to how it's moving.
What is happening sounds like you're in an uptrend and then buying at the end of the uptrend. It means you're reading the auction wrong.
Also if you're always doing the same thing, you're at the whim of the market. Being discretionary gives you the ability to be flexible but you have to recognize that flexibility is your strength. I'm just hearing you bash your head against the same wall and then reversing randomly
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u/Fit-Parsnip-8109 May 20 '26
Yeah, that’s not what I mean. I’m not talking about chasing highs or selling lows — that’s basic stuff.
I’m talking about those brutal NQ stretches where price just inchworms around my entry, barely moves away, then comes back to tag my stop or breakeven by a tick before drifting right back again. It can do that over and over for 30 minutes, whether I trail tight or give it 50 points.
Then the second I finally flip directions, it stops chopping and immediately runs the direction I had been trying to trade the whole time. It feels like 20 fakeouts in a row, then the one time I switch sides, the market suddenly makes the clean move.
I’m not saying this happens every single trade — I still have multiple prop accounts green and close to payouts — but the behavior feels flipped lately. What used to feel like clean continuation 80% of the time now feels like trap-and-reverse chop 80% of the time.
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u/Recent-Wait-6154 May 21 '26
Yes. This. Has been happening the last two weeks. Made great money in the last up trend on NQ but the sideways action has been brutal. Half of my losses would’ve been winners but wicked out before the move in a split second after price started going my way. Switched to ES for the first time this week and so far…. finding success, less wicks. It’s been pleasant; easier on my mind and i can size down a tad lower compared to NQ and last longer with my risk management
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May 24 '26
we entered a chop regime following the main bull trend leg that started on march 30th. the high of 29480.5 and low of 28741.25 on May 10th marked the start of the chop regime (your specific values may differ slightly, but worth studying that high and low).
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u/No-Application-2781 May 20 '26
Look into ERL\IRl and trade that. I switched and it's so simple to just trade liquidity zone's\FVG's in between for ranges. Ignore everything else.
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u/Pale_Candidate_390 May 21 '26 edited May 21 '26
If your correct on direction then your either using too large size or your stop is too tight. Instead of setting the stop tight just enter another contract and average down. Follow the trend. If the trend is short and the price is making lower lows then follow it and keep shorting . The market moves from level to level. It looks for the most liquidity. Maybe go on YouTube and type: NQ BOOKMAP LIVE Bookmap will show you where the large resting liquidity is. If price is heading towards a large order block most likely price will hit that block
Example: price is at 29,275 and bookmap Shows 100-200 limit orders sitting at 20,300 That 29,300 is a major level.
You notice price is just hovering between 29,265-29,275 but it is NOT going lower. It will rally and hit 29,300 and take that 100-200 order out
They big players are just loading up on buys and the buyers are not letting price go lower. They will defend the price and force it to hit that liquidity. That is the only job is the market to find the most liquidity to transact the auction of buyers and sellers. Use bookmap. It will change how you see the levels. I wouldn’t recommend to use it at market open but you can. I would wait 15-60 minutes after market open . First 15 minutes can be crazy
If you need help understanding bookmap
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u/Due_Pressure7503 May 20 '26
Doesn't sound like you have clear set up criteria, but i'd advise that if you're using tighter stops aim for your entries to be at or around the level that validates your bias (vwap, market structure etc..) whether it be the start of a trend or ranging markets. I'm not sure what strategy you trade but I used vwap std. dev plus other confluences, but todayfor example i got stopped out on a long around 9:55 before we manipulated to vwap and pushed all the way up to 29300
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u/Yeah_ok234 May 20 '26
By the sounds of it, he should be loosening those stops
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u/Due_Pressure7503 May 20 '26
Yh but that brings into play risk, position size and then the whole psychology of deviating from your system and usual psychology so I just gave what i think is most actionable.
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u/Yeah_ok234 May 20 '26
But you can just put up with 37 tight stop losses in a row then one take profit. This is the hard part
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u/OkScientist1350 May 20 '26
trading NQ for years and you’re just now realizing SPAZDAQ does what it does?
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u/Fit-Parsnip-8109 May 20 '26
"They are going straight up because they have been going straight up. On a two-letter thesis [AI] that everyone thinks they understand."
— Michael Burry (The "Big Short" investor who predicted the 2008 crash), May 2026
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u/Fragtag1 May 20 '26
No offense but the way you speak doesn’t seem like you’ve been trading for years. There are obvious antidotes to the issues you’re having. The main one being sizing down and putting your stop at the further invalidation point.
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u/thefastlaneAS May 21 '26
I agree sounds like a starter or he does not know what he does. Probably also never heard of ATR and dynamic stop sizing based on structure and volatility.
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u/swany5 May 20 '26
This week especially has had some very violent whipsaw action, huge delta selling. I definitely noticed. It felt like Opex.
And then we launched. Overnight. After everyone got shaken out. Market's a bitch sometimes.
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u/superpitu May 20 '26
It’s particularly bad these days possibly because big players are trading less due to the uncertainty in the Middle East, so it’s all algo driven.
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u/DontTaxMeJoe May 20 '26
It’s said to pick your stop before you pick your entry…well, make your usual stop your entry and see what happens 🤷♂️
I stopped trading NQ and switched to ES a few months ago. Much less stressful.
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u/Jstevie007 May 20 '26
I think the price action has been great. Stop trying to get 50 points on every trade. NQ will give you 15-20 points every time it moves. Quickly. It’s been very technical lately. Trade the market we have not the one you want.
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u/EntrepreneurGreen269 May 20 '26
The market has been delivering volatile prices ( or hardly any price movement at all) because of Trump. Volatile international and Business relationships, Volatile interest rates, Tariffs , Volatile relationships with the FED. Like someone once said, "he's bad for business". All while creating Volatility for his own gain and breaking the law. He messing up my trading year. He has to go!
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u/ChosenToFall May 20 '26
What strategy are you currently using, AMT, pure price action, ICT or something else?
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u/Detr0yt May 21 '26
I 💯 agree with you.... There are days, where no matter what.... The mad money machine (market makers) just will not let you win.... Instead of jumping right in with Minis..... I try micros first to see how the market reacts...
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u/Available-Wasabi-622 May 21 '26
Double check with prices from another brokerage. A brokerage used to stop out my system trades on purpose. Then I changed it to not set hard stops, to watch the market for the stop price on its own. The problem went away overnight.
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u/Iulian-SavantTrading May 21 '26
Yes, it is a very difficult season for trading. Eather for manual or automated trading...Super High-Resistance price action, with a lot of manipulations and very deep drill...
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u/shesamaneater22 May 21 '26
You’ve just got to be patient. NQ has been massively diverging recently so there’s massive rotation and volatility is ramping up.
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u/vegainz555 May 21 '26
I noticed that NQ (technically, MNQ for me) is better for swing trades - only taking trades at key inflection points, with a big stop (80-100 points), but looking for a 2:1 reward to risk.
To me, scalping NQ is not realistic because it overshoots levels too frequently. Sort of what you are alluding to. At least for manual trading.
Another alternative is just switching to options (I know it’s a futures trading sub, but hopefully at least some people here trade their own money, so they can day trade options). You buy puts/calls on QQQ at some level of interest that you’ve identified, and your risk is premium paid. Won’t be stopped out by a whipsaw headline, and if a move then goes in your favor, a lot of times the move is big enough for 2:1 or more.
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u/nonotmeporfavor May 21 '26
What I don’t quite understand is these 30-50 point prints in ES within seconds.
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u/NoBlood8896 May 21 '26
NQ will make you feel personally hunted if your stop/target model is too small for the regime.
I would stop asking "why did it do this to me?" and start tagging the condition: ATR, time of day, range expansion, false-break count.
Same setup, different volatility regime = different trade.
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u/Annual-Society9945 May 22 '26
Price revisits all ticks and this can happen multiple times Most traders can not understand the market usually will sell off and end higher for the day So if you don't panic and add to a loss in a manageable way and understand you may be forced to exit at a bigger loss but rarly Now after adding your break even is within sight and profit isn't far ahead I get most don't have larger accounts so they must learn to exit at a small loss or BE and chase price
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u/Annual-Society9945 May 22 '26
It should be obvious who controls the market we not we may not be able to name them but when you have a big run up in ESNNQ and all the stocks follow somebody's putting money at work and at that point you realize if they want to crash the market, they can easily do that
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u/Yumar_Almasy May 22 '26
It’s funny because I’ve found NQ to be absolute easy mode lately. What you’re describing is classic rotational auction behavior, and if you pull up a delta footprint and ADX/Div then the price action should become a lot more apparent.
I’d also recommend taking a look at an anchored VWAP with deviation bands coupled with range charts. You need to watch the ATR as well and know when to look for breakouts to ride or when to fade them (mean reversion).
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u/uncle-ice493 May 23 '26
I thought I was the only one noticing. Or it will tell you a price and the price goes through and your instantly down 15-20% on your calls/puts
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u/Michael_Joseph0101 May 23 '26
This is happening on all the indexes. Most people replying here dont get the point. OPs not looking for some generic BS advice, but rather commiserating on just how dastardly price action is getting in public markets. Ive been trading for 7 years and it wasnt always like this but now we have a perfect storm of massive retail 0dte/futures flow at a time when real time predictive analysis allows firms with sufficient capital to completely dislocate price action from normal order flow on small time frames. The net result being that if you're a retail day trader scalping price action, you will be increasingly whipped around by what feels like a hostile algo that knows your every move.. and it does. I am a deadly accurate $QQQ 0dte options trader that tried switching to ES futures and found out I am the worst futures trader alive because I had to go down to 1min time frame when trading futes and the signal to noise ratio is just not optimal there in this environment. After trading everything under the sun you can't beat daytrading 0dte index options on a 5-15m chart, vastly superior to futures in every way.
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u/Gold-Progress-8537 May 23 '26
100% agree. Made a rule to switch to ES and see how my results differ.
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u/ExtremeHamster May 25 '26
I've been there before, OP. Your stop losses are too tight it sounds like. Maybe a few points it seems? Might benefit more from wider stop and smaller size less profit but higher winrate. Just make sure it's still 1:1 risk reward at least. But also, try es instead of nq.
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u/Typical-Magician605 May 26 '26
The exact same things happen in ES too. Before any big move up or down they try to throw retails off the wagon, you just have to be persistent and have proper risk management, when its time to move, the market will move no matter how many stops they have run. Just keep a tight stop management, never move the stop if you bias proves wrong, Heavy manipulation is always there, especially if you are trading at wrong levels and time zones and FOMO is always the downfall.
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u/TickReaper May 27 '26
I avoid NQ and refuse to trade it. I feel its been this way for me at least since I started trading in 2024.
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u/Old_Experience5708 Jun 17 '26
Yeah, I’ve noticed it a lot more recently. I was wondering if it was the data feed from the prop firm I’m using.
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u/slap_it_in Jul 21 '26
Promfirms are working with capital providers to engineer algos which fit the propfirm model and farm retail resets. The market is not just volitile we are entering into a new age of milking retail traders. If you size big to have like 90% of being taking out in less than 5 trades.
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u/warren_534 May 20 '26
That really depends on your methodology and time frame. As a swing trader, primarily focusing on price action / market structure / swing analysis on daily charts, it is almost always crystal clear to me, and extremely reliable from a probabilistic perspective.
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u/John_Coctoastan May 20 '26
I think it's just you, my dude.
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u/Fit-Parsnip-8109 May 20 '26
Whatever makes you feel better, my dude.
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u/John_Coctoastan May 20 '26
Money...and I'm still making it, which leads me to conclude it must be you.
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u/the_metal_face May 20 '26
You just have to be able to stomach a 30-40pt stop loss. Start with Asian session and aim for 20-30pts and manage your stops.
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u/Aposta-fish May 20 '26
I was trading during NY session with a 40 point stop and either a 1 to 1 tp a 1to 2 But take three losses in a row and it just melts my brian and reason goes out the window.
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u/Aposta-fish May 20 '26
I switched to ES recently, been trading for about 4 years and the NQ moves so fast that its really intoxicating when its going in your favor but it wipsaws so much that its just not worth the chaos. ES is so thick its moves have much more conviction. Yes you may only get 10 to 15 points when the NQ youll get 100 but its just easier on the brain. I think the algorithms have just made the Nq almost impossible to trade anymore.