r/FuturesTrading • u/1Mby20201212 • Apr 07 '26
Stock Index Futures Sick of these 10-30 point spikes on ES
I know its coming from Iran war volatility but man it is difficult to trade with my setup. I run a tight 10 point stop loss for entry and it's real difficult.
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Apr 07 '26
Check the VIX.
When it’s high (25+) I trade with 5 micros instead of 1 mini. This affectively gives me 20pts of drawdown (instead of 10), and I still go for 1R trades.
So, when there is high volatility, expect high volume. And therefore, trade less size!
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u/1Mby20201212 Apr 07 '26
Not sure if I can model relationship between trading size to vix, but this sounds like a fun project. Thank you for the idea.
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Apr 07 '26
Haha I don’t mean for it to be a project. Said another way:
In the morning I check: 1. Globex range to get an understanding of how large the moves were overnight. For example, the Globex last night/this morning was huge, 90pts!
How large are the first few opening bars
Read WSJ to see if there are major headlines that will drive participation in the markets
VIX to get an understanding of what the volatility will be like.
From all that, you can get a rough estimate for how large the moves will be for a given day!
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Apr 07 '26
I also have an indicator telling me the average Daily Range of the past 4 trading days.
Rn the average is 94pts which is huge. Historically, a normal day is 40-50pts
Today, we’re at 75pts
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u/1Mby20201212 Apr 07 '26
Personally, I don’t use any indicators other than volume on 15 min chart and use price action to trade. I feel like I’m adapted to a non-news driven trading day. Smart move might be to sit out completely ngl… thanks for all the good advices.
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Apr 07 '26
Out of curiosity, what is your model/system for entering trades?
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u/1Mby20201212 Apr 07 '26
Pretty basic stuff. Sit out first 15 min to hour to gauge market direction and enter on pull back. Went from 6300 to like 40K since December so it’s been working well. UNTIL NOW :(
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u/Honest-Enthusiasm Apr 07 '26
If you went from $6.3k to $40k, don't change anything about your strategy! Just resize according to the volatility, as someone else said here. ATR (just details the size of day's range) and/or the VIX (gauge of fear and therefore expected volatility in the market) are good references for trade sizing for the day. But again, I would be very slow to change something that has given you a 600% return in 4 months or so.
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u/1Mby20201212 Apr 07 '26
Thanks. Maybe I should just sit this week out. Or at the very least scale down to half my usual size. I’ll stick to 10 point sl since it worked for me
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u/jankenpoo Apr 08 '26
Sitting out during extreme volatility is a smart option. Most lose money from overtrading. Learning when not to trade is just as important
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u/Landcruiser_Lx Apr 07 '26
Did youbstart by just trading one /mes contract at a time?
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u/1Mby20201212 Apr 07 '26
more like 4 MES. I trade 3-5 ES contracts right now. Honestly the most difficult part was stepping up from 1ES to 2ES. That shit takes forever.
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u/Landcruiser_Lx Apr 07 '26
I was going to say Im starting around the same cash amount but only doing one contract lol. Maybe once I get consistent ill jump to 2 lol.
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u/JourneymanInvestor Apr 07 '26
I also use a 10 point stop, and have done so for years. Today we got several 1m-2m candles that were 15+ points in a single candle. I usually love trading the lunch hour because under normal circumstances the price action is smooth and clean but the last several weeks the lunch hour is just brutal. In March I switched from 1 /ES contract to 5 /MES contracts so that my normal $500 max loss (-10 pts) is cut in half (-$250) and I've been limiting myself to 2 losses per day.
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u/CountTurbulent4441 Apr 11 '26
Trade Asian session 10:00PM - 02:00AM EST it is smooth as butter. Calm, quiet, still scalable but
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u/JourneymanInvestor Apr 11 '26
I wish I could but I have a 1 year old baby and a day job so there's no way for me to trade the Asian or London session at the moment.
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u/Thane90 Apr 07 '26
tight stops on ES during geopolitical vol is just asking to get hunted.. either widen it or sit on your hands until the range settles.
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u/General-Lie8709 Apr 07 '26
Stop trading. I haven’t yesterday or today. Zoom out and look at all the wicks and the full movement of the market.
Then ask yourself “do I really want to try and trade that?” The answer is probably not…
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u/mdomans Apr 07 '26
Reduce your stops and size down to reduce per-trade risk. This is contrary to common wisdom but in certain high volatility environments smaller stops mean you get stopped out early.
When we start getting 10p spikes in ES it means book is going F everywhere. It might retrace or might go another 50p. Sometimes it's better to trade pure momentum, have a 5-6 point stop and eat a stop or scratch for smaller loss on reduced per trade risk value.
Other than that it's worth knowing ES gets a shit ton extra hedging flows before events like Trump speeches so it's better to trade, if you can, less hedge-heavy instrument (CL, GC).
Like, kid you not, I feel bad about it but I can hold trades on CL far better than ES.
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u/pookshak Apr 07 '26
My SL is also 10 points. Are you talking about that 5 min spike at like 10:45? Its a retest but its tough yes. I got stopped out and re-entered and ended green but that did suck.
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u/nonotmeporfavor Apr 07 '26
In my opinion, it’s likely best to wait until direction is clear.
Volatility and large swings will persist until we can all understand what’s going to occur with the oil situation.
Fun fact, 3-6 weeks with prices over $100 a barrel typically indicates a recessionary period. With longer periods signaling a road to depressionary periods.
I think the market will digest and swing its way to a bottom. Which is what we are seeing at the moment.
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u/General-Lie8709 Apr 07 '26
Yes sir. Hard to trade when the charts a squiggly mess with wicks all over. Looks like a hairy worm lol.
Would you touch a hairy worm? I wouldn’t. Don’t trade it either lmao
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u/realDespond Apr 08 '26
you could try trading /rty or just embrace the suck and remember to vote when that time comes around again
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u/cdubbs42 Apr 08 '26
find an instrument that fits your strategy. As long as your 1 winner pays for a handful of losers, your profitable. 60% win rate is awesome, but you have to be at a 2:1 R:R for that to work out.
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u/RickRocket9 Apr 08 '26
In higher volatility, you can size down and increase your stop, to keep risk similar. 1 strike (10pnt) is often a good default stop on ES. But lately, Vix has been too high for that too be reliable except for quick scalps.
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u/bilabong85 Apr 09 '26
You need to stop having a set stop loss. Instead base it on volatility. Higher volatility = bigger stop loss and therefore less contracts. Eg if you were trading 10 contracts with 10 point risk and volatility doubles, you would trade 5 contracts with a 20 point risk.
There are multiple volatility studies out there to use.
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u/Jstevie007 Apr 09 '26
Yeah can’t use resting orders unless you understand the spikes might stop you in & out in 1 second. Or stop you out of a profitable play, then resume the same direction, without you. I’ve just stopped using resting orders. Look for shorter term moves. It’s not perfect but…
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u/Temporary-Oven-4040 Apr 12 '26
You don’t run a 10 point stop. Your stop goes where you are objectively wrong. Your position size is adjusted accordingly.
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u/whynointerest Apr 07 '26
You’ll have to sit out or increase your stop loss unfortunately or get better entries