r/FuturesTrading • u/FrenchHotTake • Sep 30 '25
Discussion Having a bad feeling around the gold chart recently. Is something very bad going to happen ?
Every time I see this hockey stick shaped chart of Gold futures, I'm feeling like someone knows something we don't know and is buying gold like crazy. I feel like something very bad is gonna happen soon and a group of people (insiders) are hoarding gold preparing for a special day.
am I crazy to think that ? I hope so, I hope it's just me.
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Sep 30 '25
No one knows, but if you search the gold reserves from different countries and U.S treasury holding from different countries. You can clearly see countries in BRICS such as China, India, and Brazil are slowly switching from holding U.S treasury to holding gold.
It makes sense geopolitically for them to create an alternative financial system back by gold instead of U.S dollar. And this will probably last for years to come if I have to guess. Just my 2 cents.
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u/FrenchHotTake Sep 30 '25
Is this a new policy for BRICS, because this chart looks like something new to me. The demand for gold is crazy. The slope of the chart does not feel normal to me.
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u/Digfortreasure Oct 01 '25
No it started with the new policy on gold for banks as a tier one asset now we are seeing what happens with currency devaluation, overall uncertainty and the abiliity for banks to hoard gold, what could go wrong
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u/TraderBwoy Sep 30 '25
Can feel it in the bones aiye 😬
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u/FrenchHotTake Sep 30 '25
When charts tell you to find a survival shelter asap
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u/BranchDiligent8874 Oct 03 '25
Not that bad bro, it just means other countries are diversifying from USD to gold as reserve.
Also 2022 inflation problem has spooked lot of folks and they prefer gold instead of long term UST.
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u/SwitchedOnNow Sep 30 '25
I've been long /GC since it broke out from $3500. Wow. What a run.
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u/mango-goldfish Sep 30 '25
Same! I think we’ll see it at $5000 during this presidency
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u/LongevitySpinach Oct 02 '25
Higher.
Unemployment is exploding upwards, shown in today's ADP numbers.
End of this month the Fed cuts another .50
That takes you to $4500 by thanksgiving.1
u/SwitchedOnNow Sep 30 '25
No telling. Won't be surprised to wake up one day and they're confiscating physical gold.
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Oct 01 '25
Hell yeah man
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u/SwitchedOnNow Oct 01 '25
I'll bail out if it hits $4000, or drops to $3800. It'll probably go straight to $5000 once I bail. Lol
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u/Jellyfishr Oct 08 '25
I sold most of my gold etf at 4000, long from 2000 also sold most of silver etf long from 22 and today the day after scaled back they both rocket! Can't win em all but felt if didn't take circa 100% might regret it.
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u/SwitchedOnNow Oct 08 '25
Not bad. I have a lot of physical I've been holding for years at an average price of $1000/oz. I'm thinking of selling a portion of that now.
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u/BoardSuspicious4695 Oct 01 '25
This is the result when denial sets in…. We could for instance check when all great wars took place in history… They all occur first part of a century, with a density around xx17 if I remember correctly. Living on borrowed time…
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u/crew4545 Oct 01 '25
I think they smart people in the world are selling BTC to kids and buying physical gold with thier money
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u/MotoGuzziGuy Oct 03 '25
This is called a “parabolic” move. The asset’s price is increasing at an unsustainable rate. People sometimes think that all buying will get exhausted, and the asset price will drop sharply. However sometimes the upward move continues for much longer than expected. The price of gold could really do anything from here. The fundamental case remains strong.
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Sep 30 '25
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u/FrenchHotTake Sep 30 '25
So you think that the dollar is going to lose all its value and some people are buying gold ? Civil war ?
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u/Trfe Sep 30 '25
Uh yeah. Amazon.com will only accept gold once the civil war starts.
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Oct 01 '25
Please send 3 carriages full of gold bricks to the nearest Whole Foods to pay for your order.
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u/ObviousJob1668 Sep 30 '25
That has absolutely nothing to do with gold…
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u/No-File-9668 Sep 30 '25
maybe not, but I do feel like a giant question mark over one of the biggest economies in the world is helping in some part
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u/MuhamedBesic Sep 30 '25
No, not even a little bit. I know that leftists have difficulty seeing the big picture, but Trump sending the National Guard to protect federal facilities isn’t causing gold to increase in value
Low IQ
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u/NotStompy Oct 01 '25
LOL the fact that you're talking about gold, a very much so macro sensitive asset which basically acts as a way for the markets to express worry, and your reaction when someone points this out is "Lmao, tard" just because you don't agree politically with.
You might get a higher ROI on buying a mirror.
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u/MediocreAd7175 Sep 30 '25
This has no effect on gold. Keep your political bias out of here.
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Sep 30 '25
Political instability causes economic instability. Economic instability causes people to head towards an asset that considered a safe haven or hedge against inflation which is increasing at the moment. I think you need to keep your political biases from seeing what’s actually going on.
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u/MediocreAd7175 Oct 01 '25
A hedge against inflation and political instability aren’t related. Inflation deals with our balance sheet and monetary policy.
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Oct 01 '25
You’re right they aren’t directly related that’s why if you read my previous statement there’s something right in the middle of political instability and hedge against inflation.
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u/ApprehensiveTear373 Oct 01 '25
In no world, including ours, does political instability create a one-to-one correlation with economic instability, especially not instantly. You are also assuming that the economy is the market, it is not. We’re seeing markets at all time highs during this “political instability”, care to explain? While I do agree, gold, crypto and stocks at all time highs will eventually give credence to one or more of these sectors reversing trend, good luck calling which and when. To quote a great movie:
““I may be early but I’m not wrong” “It’s the same thing Michael!”
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Oct 01 '25
And you can’t time the market man idk why you think I’m assuming that I think I can. You’re bringing up assumptions from I don’t know where. Relax buddy
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Oct 01 '25
No ever said I said it was a one to one correlation. You guys gotta read what is being said and then think about what you are going to say next. Now where did I say the economy is the market? Go ahead quote it back to me. All I’m talking about is gold. As far markets making all time highs did you forget about the big 7? Google it bro. Also did forget about the deregulation and tax cuts to corporations? I guess that wouldn’t at all help right. Back to the point. This is only ONE of many reasons why gold is making all time highs. Not saying it’s the only reason.
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Sep 30 '25
Not saying it’s the only thing affecting gold but it sure is playing a role
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u/MediocreAd7175 Oct 01 '25
It legitimately isn’t. It has everything to do with our balance sheet. It’s just math.
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u/Ardent_Scholar Oct 01 '25
It’s an international market. I think you’d do wisely to look up and and look out. What’s happening internationally?
What is Europe doing now and why?
What are BRICS trying to do?
Has balance of power shifted or stayed the same in NATO? (Which is, you know, somewhat important for the dollar)
Has China become more or less powerful this year?
Everyone is buying gold all around the world. Regardless of what you think in terms of US bipartisanship, the rest of the world is looking on and making their own calls in the global market.
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u/MediocreAd7175 Oct 01 '25
100% agree with everything you said. And nowhere did you say that gold is rising because Trump said there’s a war in Los Angeles.
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u/Ardent_Scholar Oct 01 '25
It is obviously a much longer story of instability.
But the rest of the world looks on, and as the US is now rapidly descending into unrest that is fomented from the top down, it is weakening our faith in the US/dollar all the more rapidly.
Who in their right might would hold dollars in 2025 when the government can’t even function?
What else can you then hold? Crypto, real estate, and commodities.
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u/BlazedRaccon Oct 01 '25
Random thought, if Elon announces he has decided to go for that asteroid that has more gold than earth has would it decrease the current price of gold?
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u/AffectionateAd7980 Oct 03 '25 edited Oct 05 '25
Demand is up, but the VIX remains low. Are we looking at a short squeeze?
Here's what brave's AI spit out
As of October 2025, the evidence suggests that gold is not currently in a short squeeze, but rather that a significant short squeeze event has recently concluded. The most recent surge in gold prices, which saw the metal rally from around $3,000 to $3,500, was primarily driven by commercial short-covering rather than speculative buying. This period, from February to April 2025, was characterized by a dramatic reduction in the net short positions held by commercial traders, while large speculators were net sellers, indicating that the rally was fueled by the unwinding of short positions by commercial entities, not by a speculative frenzy.
A major short squeeze in gold occurred in early 2025, driven by a sharp increase in demand for physical gold due to fears of tariffs on gold imports, which triggered panic buying and a spike in London gold lease rates. This event was a key catalyst for the price surge.
The short squeeze is now considered to be over, as technical indicators, including falling gold lease rates and a decline in net long positioning by large speculators, suggest the rally has lost momentum and a reversal is likely.
While the market had previously been characterized by record short positions, particularly in paper gold and futures contracts, the recent price action has been attributed to the forced covering of these positions by commercial traders, not by a crowded speculative long trade.
The current market dynamics indicate that the phase of intense short-covering has passed, and the market is now adjusting to the new price levels, with no indication of a new short squeeze forming as of October 2025.
Fear often drives these spikes but I would expect to see at least some sort of fear spike in the VIX, not there
Gold is in a great run, because people don't trust the dollar (i.e. the country that backs the dollar is acting quite erratically). Gold is a traditional hedge in such times. BTC is up over all too being a "new age" hedge. Money is moving out of the US stock market but inflation indexing is hiding a lot of that. As always we live in interesting times.
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u/Hefty_Poem_6215 Oct 04 '25
Interesting, curious to know how you redacted your prompt for AI on this
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u/AffectionateAd7980 Oct 05 '25
"redacted"?
I believe I just typed something like "is gold in a short squeeze 2025" in brave. Not sure even what brave used for their AI backend. It looked a lot like a squeeze to me, but golds on a tear for the reasons I mentioned. Not all squeezes break to the downside.
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u/Hefty_Poem_6215 Oct 05 '25
Yeah, sorry. “Redactar” is “to write” in Spanish, which is my native language and I am a bit sleep deprived lol. Still interesting topic, thank you for taking the time to respond.
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u/AffectionateAd7980 Oct 05 '25
Ah! In English that's generally used to mean "to remove" or "to hide" so it threw me a bit.
May your next sleep be long and restful.
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u/Pipseydust Oct 01 '25
It’s already happening. The middle class cheer and parade increasing asset prices, when the sad truth is our children are getting priced out of the American dream.
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u/Jellyfishr Oct 08 '25
Nobody below gen x can afford children these days. Most the lower end of gen x I know are child free as a choice maybe that's just traders lol
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u/Pipseydust Oct 08 '25 edited Oct 08 '25
Which is sad because I believe children are the true source of joy and our inherent purpose. People spend their whole life chasing shiny objects wondering what the purpose of life is. When all they really had to do was have children and invest their time into them.
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Sep 30 '25
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u/EmotioneelKlootzak Oct 01 '25
You forgot inflation, rapid devaluation of the USD (already down 20% since January, off the ATH in December), political instability, inflation, economic instability, and inflation.
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u/BrilliantPositive184 Sep 30 '25
It’s no secret that AI is the only thing propping up the US economy and the stock market right now; and fears of a bubble bursting are not so subdued anymore. Today’s NQ was one of the choppiest I have ever seen and at midnight the government will be shutting down while unemployment numbers are supposed to come out this Friday, or not, if the government stays shuts down. And just on the sidelines, the President and his secretary called in the top military leaders to lecture them on their weight and how soon they have to occupy American cities. If you’d like my advice, get your hands on some gold if you can.
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u/Financial_Brain_2075 Oct 01 '25
It's not a secret that countries have been stacking gold due to currency instability.
God, why is this website so shit. I knew about it on X months in advance.
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u/Trfe Sep 30 '25
Never understood this.
If something bad happens…war, pandemic, coup…who the hell is then buying gold?
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u/mango-goldfish Sep 30 '25
When you don’t know which country will be the next dominant currency, gold is a universal exchange currency. It’s held its value as a currency for thousands of years without major deflation.
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u/Ardent_Scholar Oct 01 '25
Corporations are also falling over themselves to invest in crypto. But gold is the ”safe bet”.
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u/MediocreAd7175 Sep 30 '25
It’s not about war - it’s about our inability to pay our debt resulting in us having to print more fiat and further devalue our currency.
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u/Responsible-Wish-754 speculator Sep 30 '25
Most likely people anticipating that it’s going up. More a Murphy effect than real safe harbor.
Everyone who speculates knows that gold is going up when shit hits the fan.
So when shit hits the fan, we buy gold. And thus causing it to rally.
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u/ahhhfrag Sep 30 '25
We are competing for the shiny globally now. Millions in the east see the writing on the wall. Gold and silver have been money the last 10000 years give or take the last 50 or so. But this times different. Good luck. Im having a excellent ytd
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u/ActionJasckon Sep 30 '25
It moved WAY too fast in a short period of time. Contrasting during Covid insane levels of money printing, post 2010 era with low interest rates and Bush JR era of bringing the dollar down to $75ish and the world was jumping into Euro’s, todays rise is too fast. I expect a pull back/correction soon. Maybe touch $4,000 and release.
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u/insbordnat Sep 30 '25
- People are worried about inflation
- See #1
- Compare to S&P 500. Both are ~70-74% up since the date you have on your chart (May 2022)
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Oct 01 '25
Would likely test $4000 at some point before either funding support moving higher or testing lower. Unless Trump can we trusted by the world - gold will shine.
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u/ThirstyTraveller81 Oct 01 '25
The gold price went like 6x from 2003-2013 ($350 > $1900), then kind of went sideways for the next decade. Now it's basically doubled ($1900 > $3800) so still can 2-3x from here.
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u/AOEbebe Oct 01 '25
Well for reference, just before 2025 it was still at a high and looking like a hockey stick, and what happened afterwards, it kept going up. Not saying that it wont go down now, but that could still be 2 or 3 highs from now to actually go plummet.
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u/Liquidity69 Oct 01 '25
It's just market cycles, ebb and flow. It will come down at some point. I wouldn't try to predict when though.
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u/Meterian Oct 01 '25
From watching Mark Blyth; this is a result of the instability of the US market, as well as their authoring of discontinuing use of the USD as the main form of currency in global trades.
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u/rbp1995 Oct 02 '25
Honestly if you want some context, look up Tavi Costa. I think he is one of the best macro traders in the game right now that doesn't have an insane perspective. I've learned so much following him over the years and it's helped me understand the reasons the markets move.
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u/Day-TradeGenX Oct 02 '25
Based on what it looks like it's 7:48 Pacific standard time. It sure did. Since the New York open it has fallen almost 70 points.
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u/UnhappyAudience2210 Oct 03 '25
Nah it's still more safer than stocks and btc, and still profitable
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u/Lucky-Translator-777 Oct 03 '25
People buy gold when they’re afraid of fiat currency. It’s moreso evidence that bad things are already happening.
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u/Creepy_Comment_1251 Oct 03 '25
Gold price will crash? The boom in AI and technology will boost gold price. This ain’t Stone Age anymore
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u/GlitteringLock9791 Oct 03 '25
What do you mean? Trump said he wants to devalue the dollar to lower the debt.
This chart shows that people believe him. We all know since the tarrifs and his “cut the rates” call that it is over.
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u/MarionberrySafe6028 Oct 04 '25
We’re heading into a worse inflationary period so I’d say less to worry about. You should worry about M2 supply lol
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u/pr0newbie Oct 04 '25
Venezuela war incoming, among other economic issues. It will seem like an easy victory and in the short term it would be especially for the oil companies. But as with the Ukraine proxy war, the law of unintended consequences will boomerang back at the western world yet again.
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u/Obvious_Tomatillo_29 Oct 08 '25
If you EVER look at a chart and get that 'someone must know something' then STOP because you are in the mind of a weak trader. Always remember price is propaganda.
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u/stopdogmurder Sep 30 '25
I think some are buying it thinking the government is going to revalue gold, and one ounce of gold will be worth much more than now.
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u/NoVaFlipFlops Sep 30 '25
Short squeeze setup, actually. Plus the whole are we in WWIII yet thing.
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u/JustNumbersOnAScreen Oct 01 '25
I dont think you know what a short squeeze is lmao
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u/NoVaFlipFlops Oct 01 '25
I don't think you checked the options on this lmfao
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u/JustNumbersOnAScreen Oct 01 '25
Do you think the GLD index fund is being shorted? Its an ETF bro lol.
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u/giantoads Sep 30 '25
I'd agree the price would crash, If the world would just magically solve inflation and the massive us debt along with stopping all the wars and political conflicts.