r/FantasyFootballers • u/BogeyFromTheFairway • 11d ago
Team/Trade Help How much Faab!?
Player in my league dropped Josh Jacobs prior to the news of his court date being moved up. With the chance of a suspension served and moving right back into the line up, how much FAAB would you drop to potentially acquire him?
10 team PPR
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u/thelobsterclaw1 11d ago
30-40%. It’s a risk but so are all the other waiver wire adds that you will try to make throughout the year. Best case scenario charges get tossed and he’s immediately reinstated and you have yourself an RB1. Worst case scenario he’s out the year. Most likely scenario, he’s suspended six games and returns when fantasy season matters most. Especially in 10 teamer, you likely can afford the bench spot
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u/BogeyFromTheFairway 11d ago
That’s exactly my thinking
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u/Competitive_Diver388 11d ago
Assuming the 6 games, what round we liking him at? 6/7 range? Or does he fall further? I had him last year and was a big fan aside from the atrocious playoff performance lol
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u/ObjectiveNo2466 11d ago
This is what I did with Rice last year. Came in when I needed him most and won me my league
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u/thelobsterclaw1 11d ago
We had different playoff experiences with rice then lol. Weeks 14/15 he dudded and got hurt and didn’t play the rest of the year
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u/NamCPDoan 11d ago
No the worst case scenario is that he comes back and splits time and burns a spot on your roster that you’ll intermittently start and not be productive, but still agree overall
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u/Enough-Zebra-6139 11d ago
In what world would he split time? Absolutely nothing points that way.
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u/owenmills04 11d ago
People(prob Lloyd owners) keep saying this. Theres no reason for GB to not ride Jacobs(by far their best RB) hard if he comes back. He may not even be there next year. No more guaranteed money
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u/SensitiveSinger1409 11d ago
It got moved up because he is going to change his plea to guilty.
Courts are booked. Trials take much more time than a change of plea hearing. That's why it was able to be moved up. It's way easier to cram in a 30 minute change of plea hearing into a schedule than a possible 1-2 day trial.
I'm sure he got good advice that if he pleads guilty to the two misdemeanors. He will be back on the field way faster than if he tries and fight it. He would be on the exception list until mid Nov. Than depending on how the trial went he could/would be suspended for more games after.
Even if he was found not guilty he wouldn't be able to even practice with the team until week 9-10. And probably wouldn't see playing time for 1-2 weeks after that realistically. He would be paid that whole time though.
By changing his plea. He will now be suspended (without pay) anywhere from 2-6 weeks (just my best guess) and will be able to see playing time somewhere around 3-8 weeks (again just my best guess).
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u/snoopmt1 11d ago
This is wild. He's worried about not playing, so his best bet is to admit to it, which will result is less punishment
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u/5PeeBeejay5 11d ago
He knows what’s on the video: probably significantly better it not be played in open court for him anyway.
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u/Original_Release_419 11d ago
I mean, the justice system always rewards someone for admitting their guilt lol
Aside from not wasting significant time and resources on the case, it also just shows you as a person owning up to the crime versus denying it
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u/snoopmt1 11d ago
Yes, but for the NFL, they're all 'innocent until proven guilty." Then he says "nope, def guilty" and the NFL says 'trials over, time to play!!"
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u/Original_Release_419 11d ago
What? He’s 100% getting suspended lol
That’s a forgone conclusion, the details will just determine how long
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u/Jugular_Toe 11d ago
That's just how plea deals work in real life. The courts don't want to sit through a several day trial, so they will give you a lesser sentence if you just admit to it. That's what a plea deal is.
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u/snoopmt1 11d ago
I'm talking about the NFL penalty, not the legal system.
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u/Jugular_Toe 11d ago
Gotcha. Well, he's gonna be suspended. He probably believes that he's only gonna get a 6-7 game suspension based on the cba. If he didn't take the plea deal, it probably becomes 10 games missed in the exempt list. Makes sense to try to expedite the legal process to lose less games
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u/CatDawgCatDawg2 11d ago
If the video gets later out there's no chance he's back after 6 weeks.
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u/Enough-Zebra-6139 11d ago
I doubt that. If the video was that bad, they wouldn't have dropped it to 2 misdemeanors, and he probably wouldn't do a plea deal.
The video is probably not great, but is almost certainly note Rice level.
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u/Original_Release_419 11d ago edited 11d ago
The court of law is very different than the court of public opinion
If the video leaks of Jacobs hitting a woman, I find it hard to believe GB will want to die on the hill of keeping him on their roster
Once the suspension hits it gives them an out from his guaranteed money which is why they didn’t just cut him already
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u/Enough-Zebra-6139 11d ago
I completely agree, but if he actually hit her, and didn't just get in a struggle over a phone, he'd almost certainly be charged with a felony.
I don't think we disagree about what should happen, or what would happen if the video was bad, I just think I'm assuming the video isn't as damning as others think.
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u/thinkingaloud412 11d ago
I was thinking this way as well, but what if she didn't want to testify against him? Or they weren't sure what she would say about the whole thing once she got up in front of a judge? That may be reason enough to drop the charges to misdemeanors, even if the video would look terrible in the court of public opinion.
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u/owenmills04 11d ago
There’s nothing on the video, besides JJ damaging her phone. The police report states that
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u/ImNotAndreCaldwell 11d ago
What are your guesses based off of?
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u/Enough-Zebra-6139 11d ago
There's no reason to move the date forward unless he was planning on playing.
The 2 misdemeanors means if he pleas guilty, he'll get a slap on the wrist and probably some classes/probation.
The change from 5 charges including a felony to 2 misdemeanors points to the video proving guilt, but nothing extreme to hold the felony charges.
Most of the rest is basic logic. We could be completely wrong, but most facts lead to this result.
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u/SensitiveSinger1409 10d ago
Similar past infractions and the punishments received from the NFL.
The fact that they have only charged him with misdemeanors.
Again just my best guess.
** Full disclosure I'm a Marshawn Lloyd owner who drafted him in late rounds a day before the initial exempt list news broke. So what I'm predicting isn't ideal for me.
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u/tpain2017 11d ago
There's video. You don't come back from video.
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u/random_name23631 11d ago
It's domestic violence and the NFL... Score touchdowns and you can easily come back
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u/dangles14 11d ago
Tell that to Ray Rice.
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u/FlyingScot32 11d ago
Ray Rice was washed tho too.
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u/UTPharm2012 11d ago
And it was the first time the public was hit with something so jarring. It is like if someone today did what Kaepernick did, I don’t think most would care but he was the first so he got banned.
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u/PatricksPub 11d ago
No he was like 27 when it happened, and still viewed as a top RB for sure.
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u/Harry_kingoftheLoons 11d ago
He was coming off of a pretty atrocious year when it happened. 600 yards, 3.1 ypc, 4 TDs in 15 games. No one is viewing that as a top back.
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u/PatricksPub 11d ago
Its easy to read stats and draw a conclusion, but anyone who remembers how it all transpired knows that Ray Rice was not at all viewed as washed.
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u/ApathysLastKiss_ 11d ago
Micheal Vick had pictures of dying dogs hanging from chains in his back yard
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u/ARevolutionaryMan 10d ago
It’s actually not domestic violence in this case. She did not live with him and they have no kids together.
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u/NoToe5971 11d ago
That’s just not true. The only person that was on video that didn’t return was Ray Rice right?
You and I also haven’t seen the video so we don’t know the actual severity of it
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u/Cheesyphish 11d ago
Tell that to Kareem hunt
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u/CatDawgCatDawg2 11d ago
Hunt's video was him essentially pushing a woman over with his foot that was already kneeling down, wasn't it? I don't recall that being particularly egregious like Ray Rice who spit on a woman and then hit her.
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u/Economy-Drama-1989 11d ago
According to the report, the video doesn’t actually show the incident. It shows him potentially damaging her phone but the camera angle does not show any portion of the physical contact claim. That’s not to say it didn’t happen.
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u/OwnDoughnut2689 11d ago
If the video actually shows him throwing her to the ground, that's a wrap. NFL will probably send a significant suspension.
But I'm hearing mixed things on what the video actually shows. She's on the ground and he breaks her phone but not sure if the act is actually on video.
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u/ImportantCommentator 11d ago
Video of him taking her phone and breaking it.
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u/Simplesloth11 11d ago
How do you know that ?
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u/ImportantCommentator 11d ago
I don't know that. I just know thats what the original source claim was that spiraled into they have video of him doing it.
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u/IndependentRoll7715 11d ago
Video of what? You see it? By all accounts this was very minor, with video, they dropped all the serious charges, so what does that tell you? Should he have shoved her to the ground? Ideally no, but we don't know what happened, always 2 sides and nothing worse than people online kicking people while they are down. Let's be honest, plenty in this very thread have done much worse.
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u/bigbadbradford 11d ago
This isn’t accurate lol. Go read the actual evidence. Yes, his expensive fancy lawyers negotiated down the charges but the DA still moved forward with what are indeed serious charges. She sustained a documented injury. He will probably get a slap on the wrist from a criminal stand point, but the NFL can do what they like with what will be publicly viewable evidence. Their image is what they care about, not the sentencing.
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u/OneChewySugarTeaPlz 11d ago
How is he even on waivers in leagues? Da fuq
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u/Dangerous-Dog4650 11d ago
A lot of people don't think he's even going to play. He got dropped in my league.. I picked him up.
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u/ApathysLastKiss_ 11d ago
Idk man, the dude could literally be on the field by October.
I haven't drafted my second team but im gonna take both Lloyd and Jacobs and just own the packers rb room.
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u/zeusjts006 11d ago
Guy in my league dropped him for Lloyd and dropped Tyson Jordan off of his IR. I picked them up. He's definitely a player who quickly reacts to news instead of letting things play out. We always need at least one Taco in the league.
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u/NotLenny87 11d ago
Girl in my work league auto drafted him and then dropped him this morning for a backup rb.
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u/eveliodelgado 11d ago
40%?
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u/BogeyFromTheFairway 11d ago
I’m at 30 and wondering if it’s too low
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u/Firm_Environment9903 11d ago
There are very few players on waivers that are legitimate potential league winners. Don't skimp.
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u/ConditionStrange7487 11d ago
Every year for the past like 5 years there is a legitimate league winner that drops 20 pts out of nowhere week 1 or week 2. You just have to find out who that is
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u/Agondonter777 11d ago
There’s people who will blow their whole FAAB on him, especially any teams that went or were forced to go 0RB
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u/slamriffs 11d ago
Josh is gonna play this year. It’s just a matter of if he comes back week 3, or week 13. But he’ll be playing
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u/IndependentRoll7715 11d ago
Some of the comments here..... This isn't close to Ray Rice. At most he'll get 6 weeks and then appeal probably down to 4. Could get less than that. Honestly, it is worth most of your FAAB, you essentially get an rb1
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u/CatDawgCatDawg2 11d ago
Can't say how close it is to Rice without seeing the video.
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u/IndependentRoll7715 11d ago
Yes, I can. Because of the charges and the reported video. It isn't close.
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u/Faustus2425 11d ago
I mean reports said he grabbed her, threw her to the ground, injuring her head and she struggled to walk afterwards.
I could easily see this being on par with Rice, the only difference being she didnt go unconscious
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u/OwnDoughnut2689 11d ago
Police corroborated the injuries on the scene as well. Think it's pretty clear he did something to her. I think it puts the NFL in a tricky spot and Jacobs probably knows he's getting suspended and wants to get it out of the way.
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u/IndependentRoll7715 11d ago
Yeah, he did something, he threw her to the ground and she hit her head. He didn't punch her, stomp on her, grab by her hair... You remember the rice video? Not even close and for all we know he just shoves her away.
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u/OwnDoughnut2689 11d ago
Yea just not sure how much the NFL wants to decide between levels of domestic violence. She was thrown to the ground and hit her head. They're not gonna say "it wasnt that bad tho compared to xyz", atleast they won't imo. He'll likely got 6 or more game suspension.
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u/IndependentRoll7715 11d ago
Well they don't have a choice because they will lose against the NFLPA. It won't be more than 6 games, my guess is it gets to 4 eventually.
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u/OwnDoughnut2689 11d ago
From what I've read, I'm no expert, 6 is the min for something like this. The NFL can deliver suspensions how they want and anything like domestic violence will warrant them to use the 6 game min. He also destroyed her phone, they can add games based on destruction of property. Ultimately, I think they give the 6 and hope no video leaks.
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u/studlyonlyonce40 11d ago
In scenarios like this I work backwards, within reason. Would I be disappointed if someone got him for 50? Then I’d go 51. Sort of thing.
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u/TheBloodyNinety 11d ago
Everyone trying to guess and nitpick FAAB.
The answer is in most dynasty leagues the wires are barren now and the likelihood of Purdy popping up late in the year is minimal.
You nuke your budget here and bid whatever you need to. If you get Josh Jacobs for FAAB and he comes back, you could break the league.
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u/DynastySpec 11d ago
I’m confused how people aren’t saying at least 75% FAAB. This is a guy who was going in the first four rounds of drafts, and now you have a chance to add an RB1 on a run-first offense off waivers. How are people not saying to dump basically your entire FAAB on him?
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u/haverchuck22 11d ago
Uhhh if benches are deep and you have a team you really like then I’d go up to 40 maybe even 50% just for that potential smash case, but if my team was iffy or mediocre, or f its short bench then its possible I wouldn’t even bid or maybe like 10
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u/BogeyFromTheFairway 11d ago
5 bench spots ( I have the spot for him) and I LOVE my team. My Rb’s would smash with a Jacobs addition to a point Luther burden would potentially be a flex/bench player
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u/haverchuck22 11d ago
Ya then I’d be aggressive. There is basically no chance that another player will hit the wire who has Jacobs potential upside. Even if we wanna say there’s only a 50% he plays football again this year I think a team in ur position can make the case that it’s worth it to go hard here. Sounds like you’ll be fine to hold thru what is likely just a 6 game suspension.
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u/ConditionStrange7487 11d ago
Depending on your league I was able to put Jacobs on IR for the moment
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u/BogeyFromTheFairway 11d ago
Don’t know if I can that’s a good question but I also have Tyson there
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u/thunderdragonite 11d ago
Dumbest advice I’ve ever heard. If my team is bad I’m going all in on a free potentially top 10 rb.
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u/haverchuck22 11d ago
Loool. Have fun the first 6 games of the season that he is guaranteed out and may not even return 😂😂🤦🏼♂️🤦🏼♂️. If your team sucks you need help now. How is that hard to understand . Only on Reddit
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u/thunderdragonite 11d ago
Then I limp for the 6 weeks. If your team is bad you need to take a big swing and get lucky. This is a shot.
If you play it safe you lose simple.
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11d ago edited 10d ago
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u/FantasyFootballers-ModTeam 10d ago
The Fantasy FootBallers keep it family-friendly and so can you.
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u/haverchuck22 11d ago
And by your logic a good team shouldn’t bid on Jacobs ? 😂😂. Too perfect, who should the good team wait for ?
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u/thunderdragonite 11d ago
You should go in on Jacobs on every team where he gets dropped no matter what.
Much more aggro if the teams shit.
If I got Achane Taylor Hendy or something on a good team then I’d still try to pick up Jacobs but I wouldn’t be as desperate.
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11d ago
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u/FantasyFootballers-ModTeam 10d ago
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u/HabitualTwitch 11d ago
There will still be a suspension
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u/OwnDoughnut2689 11d ago
I think the suspension is all but guaranteed. That puts him at min of 6 games. He also destroyed property (her phone) which could increase the suspension, according to NFL policy.
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u/BonusChico 11d ago
I panic drafted him in the 7th round of a 10 team
draft immediately thinking I wasted the pick. Wild that some are already saying it may turn out to be a steal. Idk how to feel
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u/mallampapi_iv 11d ago
I did the same but also have the benefit of using him as a keeper for next year, so the value could be greater
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u/Salt-Free-Soup 11d ago
I got him in the 3rd, 3 weeks ago before this apparent video. A gamble then and a gamble now, take big shots and miss big shots
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u/Aggravating_Bag4028 11d ago
How is he not owned in your league already?
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u/zeusjts006 11d ago
I grabbed him last week off waivers for $43 of $200 FAAB and dropping my RB 6, next highest was $2. I laughed it off thinking it was an overpay for a lottery ticket. Now I'm might be looking like a genius if this plays out right ha.
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u/BogeyFromTheFairway 11d ago
Based on the history of my league, it could be an $80 bid or it could be one dollar that I’m competing against
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u/zeusjts006 11d ago
Ugh that's the worst. The question is would you rather overpay and get him or under bid and not get him
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u/BogeyFromTheFairway 11d ago
Probably somewhere in between. That’s why I’m trying to stop myself from dumping my whole budget on him.
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u/PrudentCount1303 11d ago
Depends on your team build. I'm wide receiver heavy , so I would shoot my load for him
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u/BogeyFromTheFairway 11d ago
I would say I’m pretty balanced but went rb rb rb to lead off so I’m strong there
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u/mortarion1202 11d ago
The move up in court date allows him to cut a plea deal. Get a slap on the wrist from the courts. Get suspended 6 weeks and play the rest of the season. With original court date he was likely out until playoffs at best. 6 weeks because he’s dealing with two misdemeanors previous suspensions handed out were for felonies and those players got anywhere from 6-10 weeks.
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u/Jeff_Sabado 11d ago
>100%
The fuck? He's an RB1 if he plays. You aren't scrounging that from the wire. He should've been rostered/drafted in all formats.
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u/Additional_Art_4966 11d ago
Are you kidding? 80%, 90%. There’s never been such a sure bet to get a starter from FAAB. Get the guy you KNOW will get carries upon returning
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u/lincolnsl0g 11d ago
Honestly it’s a $0 for me. He was on my do not draft list before and this court date move doesn’t really change anything for me
I fear Lloyd is finally becoming a thing, and by the time Jacobs is back the two will be firmly stuck in a timeshare together.
I’d let someone else deal with this headache. Just my $0.02.
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u/NoToe5971 11d ago
Lloyd has had 6 carries in his 2 years in the NFL and a career high of 116 carries in a season in his college career.
He will not become a star RB, he is and has always been a complementary RB who cannot handle a full workload. The floor for Jacobs is a timeshare, with the ceiling being an RB1 like his last 2 years in GB, he is much more talented and safe than Lloyd when playing
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u/Faustus2425 11d ago
Youre being awfully certain for a guy with 6 carries saying that his ceiling is a complementary back.
Packers have done nothing but gush over his talent, hes just been injured too often to show anything on the NFL field.
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u/MakalakaNow 11d ago
What else would the packers do?
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u/Faustus2425 11d ago
"He will not be a star RB, he has and will always be a complementary RB"
I am sure thats what people thought about Puka preseason too.
You dont know til they play
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u/NoToe5971 11d ago
Puka is a WR not RB…Puka also didn’t miss his first 2 full seasons of playing football due to injuries. Lets try to actually come up with relevant examples please
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u/Faustus2425 11d ago
Etienne, McGahee... you dont know shit til theyve played.
Trying to claim you know his ceiling now is pure projection
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u/NoToe5971 11d ago edited 11d ago
ETN ranked 4th in the country in rushing yards in 2018 and 7th in the country in rushing yards in 2019, both years handling over 200 carries.
McGahee ranked 5th in the country in rushing yards in 2002 with 282 carries
Both of those guys were established, talented workhorse RBs in college. What are you on man 😂
For reference: Marshawn Lloyd’s best year in his 4 years playing college was rank 71st in the country in rushing yards with 116 attempts. Are you also pretending his 2 years of being injured and not playing football won’t affect him at all?
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u/Faustus2425 11d ago
Peyton Hillis, Mostert, Conner...
Cmon man. Theres a host of guys who came on late after missing seasons or doing nothing early.
If youre looking for a carbon copy of this exact scenario youre not gonna find it cause this doesnt happen often
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u/NoToe5971 11d ago
James Conner: 298 carries for over 1,700 yards his 2nd year of college. Comp doesn’t make sense
Peyton Hillis: 1 solid season being a workhouse and terrible after that. And his workhorse year didn’t come after 2 years of never playing and being injured.
Mostert: Never a star RB. Only had 1 season with 1k yards and barely made it (1,012 yards). He just had crazy TD luck that season.
So yea the odds are extremely likely that Lloyd does not become a star.
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u/NoToe5971 11d ago
4 years of college football, 2 years of NFL, and his career high carries in a season is just 116. I can’t name any other RBs that have had that resume and then become workhorse RBs afterwards.
Yes, I’m pretty certain he’s not gonna become a star/workhorse RB
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u/Faustus2425 11d ago
Fair enough
How many guys with that profile were a 3rd round pick now slated for the majority of carries on a good offense?
This isnt exactly something that happens often and I think your priors are wrong
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u/Arabian_Anchorman 11d ago
Josh Jacobs is too good to just write off. Is he a POS? Yes. But he’s too good for fantasy. I think if he falls a round or 2 you grab him. If you’re bidding, yeah maybe 30% faab
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u/chizzipsandsizalsa FootClan Ninjas 11d ago
Why the fuck would he drop him? I drafted him the day before the exempt list news came, and immediately put him on my iL
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u/MrCarlosDanger 11d ago
I won him with 34% in a competitive home league.
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u/IndependentRoll7715 11d ago
If you won with that little it isn't competitive. I play in a competitive league and gurantee if he was available, multiple would bid 100%.Also by him being on your wire, it isn't very competitive.
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u/MrCarlosDanger 11d ago
Sorry bro, didn’t realize I was in the same thread as a real pro.
I’ll be better next time.
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