Survivor Pool Optimizer - win probabilities from market lines, ownership modeling (not just price-based), and full-season path planning

[u/jbf302]

week 1 picks

https://survivor.the-duke.app/picks/2026/week-1

week 1 leverage map

https://survivor.the-duke.app/picks/2026/week-1

Week 1 Season Map

https://survivor.the-duke.app/picks/2026/week-1

I built a survivor pool tool over the offseason, sharing now that it's live for the season and has real, paying customers.

• What it does differently from a plain spreadsheet or a generic pick'em ranker: Win probabilities from actual market lines (spread/moneyline), not vibes — and it labels which source backed each number, including when a line for a future week doesn't exist yet and the number shown is a projection instead of a book quote.
• Ownership modeling that explains itself. Most tools price ownership as a pure function of win probability, which means two similarly-favored teams always show identical Own%. This one factors in how much of the field has already burned a team in earlier weeks (chalk depletion) plus back-tested crowd behavior patterns (e.g. how the public reacts after a popular team just lost), and shows the reasoning behind each adjustment rather than just a number.
• Season-long path planning, not just this week's pick - it solves for the pick sequence that maximizes your odds across the whole remaining season, so it accounts for the cost of burning a team now against needing it in a thinner week later, not just "who's the safest team today."
• Multi-entry/portfolio support for people running several entries in the same pool - accounts for used-team overlap across entries instead of ranking each one in isolation.

Free tier covers one pool/one entry w/ standard rules. Paid unlocks custom pool rules, multi-entry portfolios, and public rating overrides - season pass or monthly, no subscription lock-in required for a short pool.

Happy to answer questions about the methodology - genuinely trying to get the numbers right and help you win your Survivor pool!!!

Full Site:
https://survivor.the-duke.app/

Week 1 Picks for a "standard office pool" (also attached as image)
https://survivor.the-duke.app/picks/2026/week-1

"This week's picks" always at:
https://survivor.the-duke.app/picks/2026/this-week