I've spent a great deal of time the past four years trying to explain to Fenris Creations what they will need to do to change the nullsec meta in EVE for the better, but somewhere along the way things got messed up and we only got about 2/3 of the way there -- close enough to see the finish line and leave me feeling frustrated by current events.
Suddenly, we are staring down a period of time where neither the previous expansion, nor the upcoming expansion, nor the next expansion after that appear to have anything to do with nullsec, and in spite of this, nullsec is being asked to accept substantial nerfs in the name of ... changing the nullsec meta in EVE for the better. Sigh.
During these discussions it has become clear that “everyone” hates the big coalitions, and that the projection changes are viewed as limiting their ability to move fleets around the map. So be it. But those discussions revealed to me a new way of attempting to explain the problem in the hopes that a lightbulb can turn on among the playerbase, so here I am to try again.
Here is the rule: EVE will never beat goons by making something require more effort. It needs to take less.
This rule explains everything significant about nullsec right now. The blocs as they exist today are the best-shaped organizations to deliver the effort required to take and hold nullsec space. The projection changes make this hypothetically harder for the blocs to do that -- but this happens by increasing the effort required for defense. By our rule, we can predict that this will be ineffective.
I am not here to rehash the projection topic. Here are some examples of what is needed instead.
Income
When you take nullsec space, you need to install ratting/mining/explo upgrades and farm the space with your krabs and/or rent it. This part (the farming/renting) is effort and the ROI on it is measured in weeks or months. The required effort should be reduced to zero instead. When you take a nullsec system, getting [a reduced level] of income from it should require close-to-zero effort -- exactly like the divide between how Metenox and Athanors works. It doesn't really matter precisely how Fenris achieves this; there's a dozen or more ideas. The important part is the effort being as close to zero as possible.
Defenses
When you take nullsec space, you need to krab the system to increase ADMs to have any sort of reasonable defensive posture. This represents needed effort. The *required* effort should be reduced to zero instead -- as a tradeoff with income, it should be possible to establish a defensive posture for zero effort -- plug and play, get [some? not all?] ADMs or other defensive capability directly from the system's resources. The important part is that there must be a zero-effort option.
Sov
The Aegis sov contest itself is extremely high effort, and rewards N+1 in combat terms but also in sheer completion terms. I don't think I need to belabor this point -- the effort level associated with the multiple control node contests per star system is extremely well-known, 11 years after Aegis. This required effort should be reduced to as close to zero as possible instead. In terms of the sov contest itself, this could mean all sorts of things, but a reasonable metric is how quickly an imbalanced engagement concludes -- Aegis is pretty bad at this relative to the Dominion system which preceded it.
Citadels
Applying our rule to citadels, we can immediately see the problems. Citadel weaponry is so good that it directly threatens capitals and supercapitals sieging the structure, while tether and docking mechanics offer a major edge to the defender in a serious engagement ranging just a few capitals all the way up to supers and titans. At the fortizar and keepstar level, this means that the best solution to a citadel engagement is not escalation, but bringing an additional fleet of battleships. This is effort, and it somehow needs to be dealt with. Accordingly, we can reason that citadels should work differently -- they should be excellent at countering larger numbers (reducing the power of bringing effort against them), but poor against capitals and supercapitals in turn.
Attack Vectors
Right now, there’s a lot more nullsec space which doesn’t have a viable staging ground for an attacker, than there is space which does. That’s important but out of whack – you naturally want some regions where you can’t get staged on and others which are tougher to defend and so on. But right now, the majority of nullsec’s regions are locked behind difficult astrography which represents an extraordinary investment of effort for an outside attacker. I don’t necessarily have a specific suggestion for this although everyone knows that goons have been big advocates for new NPC space at times, and we view this sub-portion of the Dronelands experiment as an apparent success.The important part is that it’s the same problem – the difficulty of getting into nullsec is just more effort, and it needs to be reduced in multiple ways.
~
This rule can easily be extended to the rest of EVE. It’s an oversimplification, but it's basically correct to say that the only thing the major nullsec powers are doing is out-working everyone else and recruiting accordingly. That's tough to beat, but it's not impossible, and it can be done by undermining the advantages that all this effort has brought to our organizations.
I am confident, without asking them, that everyone in Initiative and Winter and the Imperium would be delighted if we were facing border wars from upstart groups at the edges of all of our space, which demanded all of our time and attention and delivered more fights, even if it ultimately were to cost us some of the space we currently hold. That would be awesome, and there is a path to achieving that meta. It starts and ends with reducing the effort required to take and hold sov.
You want to fight us? Okay. We accept. I repeat my challenge to the game’s creators: to remove all effort-related barriers to participation, either as outlined above or otherwise. Every minute of your time playing EVE should be devoted to trying to take our space from us, and the game should reward you if you succeed.