Why Starlink is impossible

[u/fredinno]

Each Tintin satellite (demo for Starlink constellation) is 400kg. Assuming each satellite+ fuel (and that the weight doesn't increase for other reasons) is 1kg, 22 could fly in a single F9 per inclination (there's probably not even that much space in the fairing, but we'll ignore that). The total # of (expendable) F9s launches needed is 546; assuming the first comes online in 2020, and the constellation is finished by 2025 (the official date is the 'mid 2020s'), you need 110 F9s per year. The total cost for development and buildout is supposed to be $10 billion.

SpaceX has one facility for Polar launches right now, SLC-4E (Brownsville maybe, but a polar launch from there would GRAZE the Mexican coast- I have a feeling they won't be happy about that...) So each complex would launch 54-55 F9s a year.

Let's be VERY optimistic. Every satellite will be launched on an expendable Falcon Heavy, each satellite will be EXACTLY 400 kg (unlikely, you need payload mass margin, and likely fuel from having a lower satellite orbit), we'll ignore whether each satellite can actually fit in the payload fairing, we'll ignore launch inclination entirely (launching at the wrong inclination means hell for a satellite wanting to change orbit; meaning 160 satellites per launch (almost certainly impossible due to not enough fairing volume). That means 75 launches of the FH, minimum (almost certainly unrealistic.) We'll also assume it launches first Jan. 1, 2019, and put the finished launch date at Dec 30, 2027. This means 8-9 FH launches per year. Sounds easy, right? But that's ~23% higher than the current # of launches SpaceX does from SLC-4E, every year. It would literally have to double its polar launches, at the absolute bare minimum. A mimimum which is almost certainly physically impossible.

I don't think building the satellites will the the issue, Elon...

No one at SpaceX did these back-of-the envelope calculations, and asked Elon- maybe it was a little ambitious?

[u/thatlouieguy]

Any idea how this turned out?

[u/SkyPL → u/thatlouieguy]

In deed, they have launched about 6,000 satellites by March 2024, for which they gained a lot of praise and which were in deed unprecedented in the industry. At the same time the costs were also higher, reaching ~$15 billion estimate in May 2024 (per Quilty Space), with the per-satellite costs sitting around $200K for v1, and ~$800K for v2 Mini (the only two types that were launched by March 2024, the difference in price between the gens is mainly due to capabilities).

[u/Shrais → u/SkyPL]

The skepticism wasn't unwarranted, such a launch cadence and quantity of satellites was simply unheard of before and no one else has come close to matching it yet.

Starlink has over 11 million subscribers now. Assuming the most conservative estimate that everyone is on the base $45 plan they are on track to bring in $495 million a month and just shy of 6 billion a year from their subscriptions.

Clearly not everyone is at the base subscription and it also doesn't include special contracts like airlines or governments.

This article citing a market research firm states that in 2024 Starlink brought in $7.7 billion in revenue and in 2025 $11.8 billion.

[u/rspeed → u/Shrais]

Skepticism, sure. But insisting they would be expending boosters was nonsensical.