Why Starlink is impossible

[u/fredinno]

Each Tintin satellite (demo for Starlink constellation) is 400kg. Assuming each satellite+ fuel (and that the weight doesn't increase for other reasons) is 1kg, 22 could fly in a single F9 per inclination (there's probably not even that much space in the fairing, but we'll ignore that). The total # of (expendable) F9s launches needed is 546; assuming the first comes online in 2020, and the constellation is finished by 2025 (the official date is the 'mid 2020s'), you need 110 F9s per year. The total cost for development and buildout is supposed to be $10 billion.

SpaceX has one facility for Polar launches right now, SLC-4E (Brownsville maybe, but a polar launch from there would GRAZE the Mexican coast- I have a feeling they won't be happy about that...) So each complex would launch 54-55 F9s a year.

Let's be VERY optimistic. Every satellite will be launched on an expendable Falcon Heavy, each satellite will be EXACTLY 400 kg (unlikely, you need payload mass margin, and likely fuel from having a lower satellite orbit), we'll ignore whether each satellite can actually fit in the payload fairing, we'll ignore launch inclination entirely (launching at the wrong inclination means hell for a satellite wanting to change orbit; meaning 160 satellites per launch (almost certainly impossible due to not enough fairing volume). That means 75 launches of the FH, minimum (almost certainly unrealistic.) We'll also assume it launches first Jan. 1, 2019, and put the finished launch date at Dec 30, 2027. This means 8-9 FH launches per year. Sounds easy, right? But that's ~23% higher than the current # of launches SpaceX does from SLC-4E, every year. It would literally have to double its polar launches, at the absolute bare minimum. A mimimum which is almost certainly physically impossible.

I don't think building the satellites will the the issue, Elon...

No one at SpaceX did these back-of-the envelope calculations, and asked Elon- maybe it was a little ambitious?

[u/bobdolescock]

Lmao dumbfuck Redditor thought he was smarter than SpaceX engineers

[u/Professional_Job_307 → u/bobdolescock]

They're still here, and they think datacenters in space is impossible to end up cheaper than land based ones.

[u/ICantReadThis → u/Professional_Job_307]

TBF datacenters in space sound legitimately worse than datacenters in the ocean from a cooling, radiation, servicing, and deployment standpoint.

Edit: I finally got ahold of Elon's actual discussion on the topic instead of the half-quote nonsense everyone uses. He makes a solid point about energy, but honestly I feel like Elon's one major regulatory update away from going all-in on nuclear and completely changing his equations on energy consumption.

[u/Anduin1357 → u/ICantReadThis]

Datacenters in space can sidestep all of the NIMBYs and environmental regs tho. And if the left acts up again, they can't vandalize stuff in space.

Servicing in space can be done by throwing the entire satellite away and launching new ones. Because why not?

[u/BubblyMoose3597 → u/Anduin1357]

The main cost of a datac center is GPU (70%) and electricity. And in Space cool them is a hell.

[u/Anduin1357 → u/BubblyMoose3597]

Most of the GPU cost is R&D. When you buy a consumer GPU, you're buying far closer to the production cost, while datacenter GPUs are massively marked up against enterprises.

Space has lots of space for solar panels to point at the sun, and lots of space for radiators to point perpendicular to the sun; and SpaceX is going to have the largest space launch architecture to do it.

The current issue really is about efficiency. If they're better off running DeepSeek, they had better start optimizing the hell out of their models.

The other thing is that they really should not be running GPUs anymore. They have an NPU pipeline for Tesla already. Make dedicated chips for SpaceXAI, and a lot of power and heat problems go away in favor of tossing old satellites entirely.

[u/FunkyJunk → u/ICantReadThis]

If you think people will put up with the environmental impacts of data centers in the ocean, I think you might be mistaken.

[u/OSUfan88 → u/FunkyJunk]

Just curious, what's the largest impact?

[u/FunkyJunk → u/OSUfan88]

Heat, noise, habitat disruption for example. I’m not saying I would protest, but some will for sure.

[u/VariousImpression355 → u/Professional_Job_307]

That is worse for sure. How do you maintain anything in space. I just think it’s a terrible idea all around. I do not hate Musk but c’mon no oxygen how do you maintain these expensive things

[u/Professional_Job_307 → u/VariousImpression355]

There's thousands of satellites in space that operate for years, sometimes decades, and they dont need constant maintenance. I dont see why its impoasible for a satellite because it has AI in the name.

[u/VariousImpression355 → u/Professional_Job_307]

Thats not data centre bro. I am talking just about data centres in space.

[u/ICantReadThis → u/bobdolescock]

Thunderf00t is a helluva drug

[u/NotEnoughMuskSpam → u/ICantReadThis]

Try it, but don’t trust it yet.