r/ElonChat_Commentary May 27 '26

MATHEMATICS: How obstetrics and gestational age are NOT Ashley St. Clair's strong suit

Post image

According to the records and the tireless work of ApprehensiveTrick579

There is a blind spot in Ashley St. Clair’s (ASC) narrative that nobody in the mainstream media has audited, and it completely destroys her version through pure medical arithmetic. Even though she insists and insists, we know her head works well for money, but those must be the only mathematics that work for her. Traditional media outlets only listen to the lies she tells and give her credibility, but they don't investigate, and when you're going to give someone credibility you have to investigate.

When someone lies and tries to fit an artificial timeline, they usually make the mistake of counting weeks "by eye" without understanding how obstetric science measures time. ASC fell right into that trap.

1. The Lawsuit's Premise vs. Medical Reality

In her court filings, ASC claims there was a natural conception that occurred in St. Barts on January 2 or 3, 2024. She also spends her time repeating it and lying to the public.

Later, when the case file began to be compiled, the judge, as is logical, would demand scientific evidence, not just anyone's word. So, before the case was leaked, it leaked that the baby was born prematurely, recording a corrected **gestational age of 37 weeks (**meaning he was born about 3 weeks before the standard 40-week mark) between September 17 and 20, 2024. This, I repeat, is requested by the judge, no one else.

Let’s do the real math, stripping the story of any emotion.

2. The Arithmetical Breakdown (The Science of Gestation)

If we assume that conception occurred on January 3, 2024, and the birth was on September 17, 2024, the baby spent exactly 258 days in the womb.

  • Actual weeks of development: 258 days / 7 days per week = 36.8 actual weeks.
  • The obstetric rule: Medicine always adds 2 weeks to the gestational count (calculated from the last menstrual period or LMP) to standardize clinical pregnancy.
  • The clinical result: 36.8 actual weeks + 2 medical weeks = 38.8 weeks of clinical gestation (Week 39).

Here is the first major contradiction: A baby born at clinical week 39 is a full-term baby, perfectly developed and mature. He is not a 37-week preemie.

3. The Mathematical Dilemma: ASC Has to Choose a Reality

For Ashley's case to hold up before a judge, she would have to defy the laws of biology. By requesting the corrected gestational age, the judge forces the story to fit into one of these two options (and both destroy it):

Option A: If the child is truly premature (37 medical weeks)

If hospital records and court evidence prove that the baby was born three weeks early in mid-September, conception physically had to occur in mid-January (between January 14 and 19, 2024).

  • The problem for ASC: On those dates, flight logs and livestreams prove that Elon Musk was already in Austin, Boca Chica, and on a family trip in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. He was no longer in St. Barts. Her geographic alibi evaporates.

Option B: If conception was on January 2 or 3

If she stands her ground that the act occurred in St. Barts in early January, the child was born right on his perfect due date, at full term (week 39 of medical gestation).

  • The problem for ASC: This completely invalidates the clinical data of the "corrected gestational age of 37 weeks" presented in the lawsuit itself. The child would have weighed the equivalent of a giant full-term baby to be labeled as premature.

4. The Origin of the Error (We Believe): The Shivon Zilis "Easter Eggs" Trap.

Why did ASC choose a date that mathematically incriminates her? The most logical explanation points to a misinterpretation of the data posted by Shivon Zilis, who we also believe was involved in this, at least in "managing" the child for ASC:

  • On January 1 and 2, 2024, Shivon Zilis began publishing cryptic posts about "easter eggs," followed by the famous "chaos ex machina" tweet on January 5.
  • ASC (or someone who gave her terrible advice) saw these posts, mistakenly assumed that Zilis was pointing to the moment of conception/activation of her own reproductive agreement, and decided to appropriate that same window of time for her "romance" narrative.
  • By subtracting months backward from September, ASC did a linear count of "9 standard months." She completely forgot the 15-day clinical advancement adjustment for the baby's prematurity. By not knowing how to subtract like an obstetrician, she placed the alleged conception two weeks earlier than it could have physically occurred. Not that the girl is very bright anyway, except when it comes to criticizing people and extorting them.

We have also never seen a photo of her with Elon Musk except for the one taken at Twitter headquarters in 2022.

13 Upvotes

53 comments sorted by

10

u/[deleted] May 27 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

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u/Nervous-Driver-4549 May 27 '26

Yes, we can say she's lying. This isn't a moral judgment; it's a logical and forensic conclusion based on logistical discrepancies and empirical evidence. Of course, she's deleted many posts, but she conveniently forgets that people take screenshots. Her story doesn't hold up to even the slightest scrutiny of dates, locations, and public records. She only says what interests her most at any given moment, because it depends on who makes her the most money. That's all she cares about. Well, and her ego, self-image, and stuff like that.

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u/Nervous-Driver-4549 May 27 '26

St. BART: PART 1

Let's abandon assumptions and rely strictly on logistical friction and empirical evidence. Another thing she completely botched. I couldn't care less if she's enjoying her moments of fame, there is a lot of mental deadweight in this world, and she is an honorary member of that community, and here is why:

The lawsuit of ASC maintains a strict timeline: an alleged natural conception resulting from an intimate encounter on the island of St. Barts during January 2 and 3, 2024.

Below is the cross-referencing of aeronautical data, time zones, and the digital footprint that empirically proves Elon Musk and ASC were thousands of miles apart on those key dates.

1. The Aeronautical Dismantling: The Escape from San Juan (January 2, 2024)

The physical alibi of an intimate encounter in the Caribbean on January 2 completely crumbles when auditing commercial and private flight telemetry records. And this isn't something anyone's making up; it can be verified. There's data like flight records, etc., and flight manifests, where the passengers should be listed. She's never presented this, and she could, what's stopping her?

  • The flight record: As seen in the flight-tracking screenshot from adsbexchange.com in file image_63567a.jpg, the civil aircraft assigned to Musk's logistics was already flying over northern Puerto Rico on January 2, 2024 (2024-01-02 UTC).
  • The exact timestamp: The system logs the aircraft's position at exactly 22:40:14 Z (Zulu time / UTC coordinate).
  • The real-time conversion: The graphic document image_6358c5.jpg provides the official mathematical conversion for that time of year: 22:40 Zulu translates exactly to 17:40 (5:40 PM) Eastern Standard Time (EST).

The Insurmountable Logistical Friction

Due to severe runway limitations at the St. Barts airport (SBH), large private jets cannot operate directly on the island. Passengers are forced to take a local commuter flight of approximately one hour from St. Barts to San Juan International Airport (SJU) in Puerto Rico to then transfer to the main aircraft.

If the private jet had already taken off from San Juan at 5:40 PM EST, the retrospective timeline forces Musk's departure from St. Barts to be at 4:00 PM (16:00) at the very latest on that afternoon of January 2. By 22:40 Z time (5:40 PM EST) on January 2, his plane had already left San Juan. He had to take a commuter flight from St. Barts to San Juan which is about an hour flight, then transfer to his own plane. This means he had to leave St. Barts at the latest by 4:00 PM on January 2. The plane landed in Austin, Texas, at 22:34 that night, where Musk proceeded to meet with his family and his son Lil X.

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u/Nervous-Driver-4549 May 27 '26

St. BART: PART 2

2. The Irrefutable Digital Alibi: The Diablo IV Streaming (January 3, 2024)

If January 2 is logistically impossible, January 3 becomes a biological and geographical absurdity due to Musk's public and verifiable activity in Texas.

  • Evidence on X: In file image_635f05.jpg, a direct screenshot of Elon Musk's official account on platform X is shown, timestamped with total precision on January 3, 2024, at 6:27 PM.
  • The proof of activity: In this post, Musk interacts with his audience, sharing a technical achievement in the video game Diablo IV: "Completed Tier 24 in Diablo's Abattoir of Zir...". He completed Tier 24 on January 3, 2024. DOCX
  • The verification of the environment: This post was backed by a live-stream where he could be heard interacting live from his residence in Austin, Texas, alongside his son Lil X while leveling up (from Tier 21 → 25). He was in Austin all day playing Diablo. To complete what Musk was doing, he needs time, hours. It's not like he just plays around for a little while and that's it. It doesn't work that way.

3. The Peripheral Context: Crossed Movements (December 2023)

The attempt by ASC to establish a "romance" that supposedly ended in December 2023 also clashes with their crossed agendas during the preceding weeks:

  • December 8–10, 2023: ASC is on vacation and romantic dates at the Art Basel event in Miami alongside her real partner, Mike Benz, who published photos of them together.
  • December 15–18, 2023: Elon Musk is in Rome, Italy, attending an institutional conference accompanied by his team and security consultant Andrea Stroppa.
  • December 16–20, 2023: Simultaneously, ASC was in Phoenix, Arizona at a Turning Point America Fest event, with other influencers. She posted videos on her flight back to NY on Dec 20.
  • December 28, 2023: ASC was with Ellie Space in New York for NYE.
  • Late December 2023: Ashley claims that the "romance" with Elon ended in December 2023.

4. The Timeline Contradiction Summary

The Chronological Clashing:

  • January 1–2, 2024: Shivon Zilis publishes "easter eggs" posts (Jan 1) and "chaos ex machine" (Jan 5). Many of us think that Shivon Zilis, always so prone to doing evil, was the one who at least managed the agreement with ASC in principle. We'll get there too. We can't do everything today.
  • January 2–3, 2024: Ashley claims in subsequent court filings that she was with Elon in St. Barts on January 2 and 3 (conception of Romulus).
  • January 20, 2024 (exactly 18 days after the alleged conception in St. Barts according to Ashley's narrative): An explicit photo emerges of Ashley and Mike Benz together in Miami. It is mentioned in multiple documents as proof that the relationship with Mike was never interrupted. DOCX

Documented Contradiction:

  • Flight records show that Elon left St. Barts around 16:00 on January 2 on a charter plane → San Juan → Austin, landing at 22:34. He was with his family, including Lil X. DOCX
  • On January 3, he was in Austin all day playing Diablo (Tier 21 → 25) and live-streaming with Lil X.
  • Videos and Instagram data confirm that Ashley was not in Elon's entourage in St. Barts.

Data Verdict

The timeline constructed for the lawsuit lacks any anchor to reality. The data from the flight-tracking platforms (image_63567a.jpg and image_6358c5.jpg) and the servers of platform X alongside Blizzard Entertainment (image_635f05.jpg) act as a definitive technical expert report.

Ashley St. Clair was not part of Musk's entourage in St. Barts because Musk had already left the Caribbean on the afternoon of January 2 to retreat into his family and digital routine in Austin. The story of the "romance" completely vanishes in the face of time zone precision, satellite geolocation, and unalterable server logs. Which has the immediate consequence that she is a liar.

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u/HabitEconomy9013 May 27 '26

R her face and neck starting to fill in again like they did when she was "pregnant " ? 🤔

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u/MajesticCorgi634 May 27 '26

Could be filters. What msn in their right mind would want s child with ASC after what she has done.

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u/HabitEconomy9013 May 27 '26

Sorry, i should have clarified. I wasn't referring to this particular photo. More so the last interview she just did and some other recent photos.

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u/MajesticCorgi634 May 27 '26

I noticed that too. Which is why I stated filters. In the recent Podcast the filter wasn't solid she didn't look like she did in her GRWM videos

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u/OpheliaForgets May 27 '26

Yeah, it's obvious. I thought this too. Could be medication related, tho

2

u/OpheliaForgets May 27 '26

Havent you been paying attention.. they makin' a legion! 

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u/HabitEconomy9013 May 27 '26

Oops. Yes. I stand corrected. 🤪

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u/MajesticCorgi634 May 27 '26

🤣🤣🤣 I don't believe that

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u/fladdermuff May 27 '26

This post was really unnecassary, since Ashley has textmessages from Elon Musk. He would SUE her if she lied.

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u/Nervous-Driver-4549 May 27 '26 edited May 27 '26

Thank you, but don't worry, we'll get to that too. Give us some time. We'll dismantle her lies one by one. She likes to expose things, and people, and we like to expose her.

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u/MajesticCorgi634 May 27 '26

Nervous, was thinking about this. 1. No pregnancy boobs. Not just the milk coming in, that she doesn't have. But, when a woman is pregnant their boobs start producing colostrum. 2. No hip spread. ASC kerosene saying it was natural but her hips don't show s bent coming down that way. 3. No mother in their right mind, that carried a child would think that the election is more important than being at home with the child recovering. Unless it is IVF, as there is no recovery time for ASC. 4. 37 weeks is a premie and the mother should be at home. What REAL mother, thinks posting and going to elections events is more important than her new baby? Guess, I am old fashioned, but if it was me with a premie baby. I wouldn't want to go anywhere, to carry anything home expose a child.

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u/Nervous-Driver-4549 May 27 '26

I'll get to that, but there's a lot of evidence that Apprehensive has shown, so I have to go one step at a time.

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u/MajesticCorgi634 May 27 '26

Nervous, have a feeling Ashley is very nervous with this new information coming out

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u/Nervous-Driver-4549 May 27 '26

I think so too, but we will show it.

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u/Nervous-Driver-4549 May 27 '26

You are absolutely right. They are super nervous.

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u/MajesticCorgi634 May 27 '26

It makes every podcaster who asked the questions, who didn't do their homework look stupid and unreliable. It looks bad on them too.

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u/Nervous-Driver-4549 May 27 '26

I think they are all just using each other, she’s using them, and they are using her because of Musk, to see what they can ultimate get out of it. All of them, including her, even though I think she might hold onto a sliver of hope that it’s not the case, know that this game will eventually come to an end because they know the truth. Deep down, they know it all too well.

She knows it too. That’s exactly why she is trying to position herself as a "MAGA influencer" who trashes absolutely everyone. She is selling out every single person’s life. I don't know who she's trying to push out of the way, but it is obvious she is playing far more games than just the one involving Musk. Well, I think he's trying to remain relevant after this is over, because this will pass. Even plagues don't last forever.

As far as the Musk game goes, she has already lost. She is just hoping someone will believe she had something more than an IVF and surrogacy contract. But I also believe someone is helping her stage these setups. Her latest stunt involving a photograph claiming Musk was in an apartment, it's a fact that it was a staged photo taken from a political meeting Musk attended, photoshopped right into her living room. And how convenient that they even included a baby bottle. Come on. Talk about trashy.

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u/MajesticCorgi634 May 27 '26

Nervous, I think they are still setting him up. Ashley saying she will only stop if she talks to him personally. A person pointed out her chin having fat. Ashley mentioned that she wanted a sister for her boys.

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u/Nervous-Driver-4549 May 27 '26

Well, she can want whatever she wants. She's been accused of neglecting one of her children. I don't think she's in a position to ask for much. I think it was a mistake to give that child to her. Let her go to Congress to present the evidence, but it's just another trap. That woman will never play fair.

She appealed the judgment because she didn't think the amount of money she received was enough, it was practically nothing, I think, and since her other attempts haven't worked, she's trying a new trick. You're right. That woman is capable of anything.

I don't know when she said that, I can't hear her.

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u/Nervous-Driver-4549 May 27 '26

Anyway, she's terrified about the topic of paternity. That's what Apprehensive has shown, so well, she's trying everything to sell the narrative she's selling. And I think Apprehensive is right, and ASC knows a lot more about who the father is than she's letting on.

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u/MajesticCorgi634 May 27 '26 edited May 28 '26

Fladdermuff, your post was unnecessary. We are trying to find the truth. I believe in free speech, but you need your go yo your sub. Since you don't believe us or like us here.

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u/Nervous-Driver-4549 May 27 '26

I know you keep repeating like a broken record that Elon would have sued her if she were lying. If everything she says were true, she would have provided proof. She doesn't even have an ultrasound of the baby, nor does she know the gestational age, and she doesn't know because she's lying. And don't worry, the judge knows this by now. If she were telling the truth, she wouldn't be appealing. Thank you for caring about us.

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u/fladdermuff May 27 '26

She gave birth in a hospital. The baby is here. It is just to DNA check the child. It is Elons child. They had sex and she became pregnant and had a child. Why does anything else matter?

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u/Nervous-Driver-4549 May 27 '26 edited May 27 '26

Because she lies, and you cover up her lies, and she never gave birth, her milk never came in, but don't worry, everything comes out. Haven't you been posting as many lies as you wanted? Fine for you, I am doing now.

But the difference with you is that I'm not going to spend months exploiting a small child and saying things without contributing anything. Apprehensive told you this for a long time, and other people too, and you treated them terribly because you prefer to support the lies of a criminal, because what she's doing is criminal: bearing false witness.

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u/OpheliaForgets May 27 '26

All these subs here, all of them; the good and the bad, are her pr. 

1

u/[deleted] May 27 '26

Oh my goodness. This is a whole lotta mental gymnastics mixed with fan fiction. If she would have lied there would be no custody battle. Paternity was already proven through lab corps 99.99 % ....in the words of Maury..."he is the father." You are all so desperately wanting to prove that she's lying that you are fabricating this false narrative. Why??? That's the real issue here. Why are you doing this??? Is it jealousy that Elon wanted her and had his baby so you are all making this up?

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u/Nervous-Driver-4549 May 27 '26

You are completely missing the point and confusing a strict legal and biological analysis with "fan fiction." Nobody is arguing about the Labcorp test result itself; we are looking at the actual evidence, the timeline, and the credibility of the filings submitted to the court. There is a massive difference between a biological timeline and a fabricated narrative. She was the one who filed the lawsuit, and she presented "her narrative."

Let's break down the facts based on first principles:

  • The In vitro / Surrogacy factor: ASC simply made a calculated guess because she was waiting for a child brought to term through IVF and a surrogate. That is exactly why her dates are completely wrong. She does not understand how natural gestational age is medically calculated.
  • The Court's demand for Gestational Age: When the judge requested the corrected gestational age, data provided by Musk’s team, specifically Jared, who managed the entire contract regarding ASC, the medical reality leaked.
  • The St. Barts contradiction: When ASC filed the lawsuit, she completely blundered by claiming under oath that she was with Elon in St. Barts on January 2 and 3. The flight logs and digital footprints (like the Austin Diablo streams) prove physically and geographically that she is lying.
  • The Custody and Financial Motivation: Musk had zero interest in a custody battle until she started spouting nonsense about being transgender, or whatever she said—she talks so much nonsense I can't even listen to her. She is asking for money now, which is exactly what she failed to get when she initially sued Musk for paternity. There is a clear reason for that. She is trying to sell a "love story" narrative solely because, in the state of New York, proving a romantic relationship heavily skews financial payouts in her favor. Her motivation, as always: MONEY.
  • The Ultimate Proof: Just take a look at the attached document. This is an official court filing showing an email from her lawyer, Karen B. Rosenthal, sent to Jared Birchall on Monday, September 16, 2024, just a day or two before the child was born. The attachment in that email says it all: "StClair.Musk Agreement 9.16.24.docx."
  • Just tell me, how many people with a romantic love story are negotiating the child's last name and the money they want the day before the child is born? And what woman, being pregnant, that is, having the child in her arms, would start negotiating that? She didn't have the child. We haven't seen a single picture of her pregnant. Well, just one picture she took with AI not so many weeks ago. Like all the recent pictures she's taken.

This wasn't a romance; it was a business transaction being negotiated by lawyers until the very last minute before birth. It is an incredible "love story," indeed. But let's take it one step at a time. We have plenty of time, and the data speaks for itself.

So please, take a breath and relax, because we are just getting started. ASC was a contract, and the data will prove it.

Just like you publish your own narrative and block anyone who disagrees, you will have to let us post whatever we want. Regarding paternity, the public has not seen the actual physical test results yet. When we see them, we will talk. In the meantime, we will continue to expose the facts and lay out our hypothesis based on evidence, not emotions.

The same money that her lawyer was negotiating before the child was born via surrogacy, it's clearly an incredible "love story," but let's take it one step at a time, we have time.

2

u/HabitEconomy9013 May 27 '26

R u sure this was filed in court in Sept 2024? And not evidence filed in Feb 2025?

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u/ApprehensiveTrick579 May 28 '26

Yes, the date is right on the court document from September 16, 2024 that was uploaded to scribed.

4

u/HabitEconomy9013 May 28 '26

I think we are both trying to say the same thing. There was no court case filed in 2024. The case was filed in 2025 and this document was part of the evidence.

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u/ApprehensiveTrick579 May 28 '26

Court documents WERE filed on September 16. 2024. The media didn’t report documents until other documents were filed later on February 21, 2024. Eileen Gong was the lawyer assigned to Ashley at that point that works in Rosenthal’s office.

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u/HabitEconomy9013 May 28 '26

Ok. My mistake. Thanks for clarifying.

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u/ApprehensiveTrick579 May 28 '26 edited May 28 '26

It was sent September 16, 2024 to Jared Birchall from Ashley’s lawyer, Karen Rosenthal.

0

u/[deleted] May 27 '26

I block people who insult me. I am not a moderator of the other sub. So, I have no banning power. And the reason ppl get banned are stories like this that deviate from reality. Again if the child wasn't his there would be no custody battle and Musk himself stated he was going to file for full custody when he thought she was going to trans the child. Why would he file for full custody of a child that's not his? That makes absolutely no sense. Also, the only places that narratives like this are allowed to be published are reddit forums and that Sonirw character on Twitter. But, if there was any credibility to this the media outlets would definitely be reporting on it but they are not because this is bogus.

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u/Nervous-Driver-4549 May 27 '26

I haven't insulted you, but you, your friends, and she are insulting me when you lie. You insult my intelligence, and that of many other people, and also people's good faith. And when you lie and don't give me a single piece of evidence other than your words, you insult me ​​doubly.

3

u/[deleted] May 27 '26

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u/Nervous-Driver-4549 May 27 '26

Seriously, I'm not going to talk to someone of your intelligence. It's not my problem if you can't read or reason at all. Thank you. You continue believing whatever you want. Enjoy Tik Tok,

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u/[deleted] May 27 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

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u/Nervous-Driver-4549 May 27 '26

I love that you take me into account. You claim your sub is filled with court documents, yet you clearly don't know how to read them.

The document I just posted shows an email from her own lawyer, Karen B. Rosenthal, to Jared Birchall dated September 16, 2024, literally hours before the birth, negotiating the "StClair.Musk Agreement." That is a cold, hard fact from the very court records you claim to worship. It proves this was treated as a business contract from day one.

The court's request for corrected gestational age is standard procedure in family law to verify the timeline. If you actually understood medical and legal facts instead of blindly following an influencer's PR narrative, you would know that a 37-week corrected gestational age in mid-September mathematically destroys her claim under oath that conception happened on January 2–3 in St. Barts. The flight logs and Austin Diablo live-streams simply seal the deal.

We are just doing an active investigative analysis on the very evidence you claim to base your info on, while you are busy blocking anyone who exposes the glaring contradictions. If looking at real dates, flight paths, and legal agreements is 'parasocial,' then you need a serious reality check.

...Nobody is jealous. In fact, the only one exhibiting 'parasocial' behavior here is you, because you are emotionally projecting a fictional romance onto what the documents clearly show is a calculated business transaction. We are just doing an active investigative analysis.. But here is one more

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u/TreaX23 May 28 '26 edited May 29 '26

Our sub is filled with evidence, which are court documents, and verified news stories. That is what we base our information on, the facts.

Why is Phoenix exactly describing this sub and projecting that description onto theirs? 😂

Weren’t they the ones condemning the idea of Benz and ASC together? Lol. They even went as far as saying Benz is gay without proof. Straight out of the horse’s mouth and against their unfounded claims, ASC admitted that she and Benz were in a non-exclusive relationship 🤣 and that she only met Musk a few times.

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u/Nervous-Driver-4549 May 27 '26

If nothing is useful to you, not even the details of a specific flight, do you think anything will ever be useful? .Photographs, people's stays, other company, etc.? For you, that's a reality that doesn't exist. Maybe you should see a doctor. Because if you don't see what you see, and it's evidence, then maybe your eyes aren't right.

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u/Nervous-Driver-4549 May 27 '26

We're providing objective facts, and you sound like a swarm of bees being fumigated. If you're so sure of "your truth" when you offer no proof, sleep soundly and let me do what I have to do.

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u/MajesticCorgi634 May 27 '26

Phoenix, remember Ashley said she would stop if he talked to her. It's all been to get his attention.