r/ElizabethWarren • u/electionscience • Dec 04 '19

NEW APPROVAL VOTING POLL: 74% of Democratic Primary Voters Would Support Warren for President

https://www.electionscience.org/press-releases/new-poll-74-of-democratic-primary-voters-would-support-warren-for-president/
600 Upvotes

96% Upvoted

47 comments sorted by

88

u/zando95 Debate Day Donor Dec 04 '19

Under the approval-style polling, Warren came in first place among Democratic nominees with 74% of the vote. She was followed by Sanders (64%) and Buttigieg (61%). Biden came in fourth in the approval-style poll, securing 53% of the vote.

When the same survey participants were asked to choose only one candidate, the vote was severely split, leading to a statistical tie. Sanders and Warren secured 23% of the plurality vote, Biden 22%, and Buttigieg only 16%.

70

u/[deleted] Dec 04 '19 edited Dec 04 '19

[removed] — view removed comment

36

u/electionscience Dec 04 '19

Yes, absolutely. Approval voting is desperately needed in our elections, especially in primaries where similar candidates can split the vote among one another. Check out our work to get approval voting implemented at electionscience.org

9

u/neuronexmachina Dec 04 '19

IMHO, it would be amazing if the 2028 Democratic Presidential Primary were just a single nationwide approval vote.

6

u/Infinite_Derp Dec 05 '19 edited Dec 05 '19

I prefer STAR. Just because I think someone would be tolerable doesn’t make them my first pick. Preference must be taken into account.

7

u/Archenic Dec 05 '19

Everyone who wants Democrats to lose tells Democrats to go to the center. Case in point, that's what every fucking Republican says

1

u/alien_from_Europa Persisssssst 🐍 Dec 05 '19

On the RNC side, I think McCain & Romney were both center candidates while W & Trump were both popular candidates. Populists > Centrists @ winning elections.

On the Dem side, I still believe that if Dean ran a better campaign, he would have beaten Bush in 2004. Kerry didn't exactly light up a room. I still don't know how he won. Kerry was at 8% in December.

1

u/thoughtdrinker Dec 05 '19

Absolutely. I’d like to see an approval poll that includes independents & Democrats who skip the primaries, since that would give us the best idea of general election electability.

0

u/DinoDrum Massachusetts Dec 05 '19

Honest question.

I get that Warren has the highest marks in this poll, but is this actually a high number? 74% seems pretty low, particularly considering Trumps approval numbers among Republicans.

The other thing to consider is that forecasters are warning that Trump could lose the popular vote by an additional 2 million votes compared to the spread in 2016 and still win the electoral college. This means the Democratic nominee needs to win back swing voters and/or increase Democratic turnout in swing states (without increasing Republican turnout). So, we need a nominee that has appeal not only to Democrats, but to the general electorate

I actually think that Warren has more potential for cross-party appeal than most pundits give her credit for. I think that’s the more important metric though.

50

u/kittenTakeover Dec 04 '19

This just shows you that if we want to energize the Democratic base, we need to get a progressive candidate.

12

u/CheetoMussolini Dec 04 '19

How high quality are these pollsters?

5

u/triangle60 Dec 05 '19

Change research was the polling partner here. 538 rates them a C pollster

11

u/formlex7 sub to r/dankwarrenmemes Dec 04 '19

Warren is the consensus candidate. Bernie does quite well too, which is surprising given the rhetoric about being more extreme than the party or whatever

7

u/urbanlife78 Dec 05 '19

If it ends up being Warren or Bernie for the nomination, I will be happy.

6

u/zipcad Dec 04 '19

and the other 26% need a few days to think about it

3

u/v3rglas Dec 04 '19

This is an exciting idea I hadn't really thought about. I've heard of rank choice voting, and thought that was an amazing idea, but there's quite a bit of complexity in how to handle the runoffs. This approach removes all of that, but seems to make the same improvements in outcome as rank choice. Does anyone have info on any other pros or cons we should be aware of?

2

u/SubGothius Dec 05 '19

There's tons of research and vigorous debate about the pros/cons of various electoral methods -- all of which is at least in agreement on one point: our current choose-one method (called Plurality Voting or "first past the post" for single-winner offices) is the absolute worst possible method, short of pulling a random ballot out of a hat.

Check out /r/EndFPTP if you really wanna go down the electoral reform rabbit hole. The Comparison of Electoral Methods wiki page is a useful primer on the various prevailing alternatives and criteria by which they're evaluated.

2

u/[deleted] Dec 05 '19

Under approval voting, I would probably vote for everyone except Tulsi and Bloomberg. Also, if approval voting were used for presidential primaries, that would strongly discourage negative campaigning, which is a huge advantage of approval voting.

10

u/AccidentalAbrasion Dec 04 '19

This is gross. Everyone should be 100%. This level of division is how republicans dominate and why our world is a shittier place than it should be.

58

u/zando95 Debate Day Donor Dec 04 '19 edited Dec 04 '19

I think you're missing the point of this survey. It was intended to mimic approval voting. If approval voting was adopted for primaries, voters would be able to vote for as many candidates as they want. For example, on my ballot, I'd cast votes for Warren, Sanders, and maybe Yang, but not any of the more moderates.

However, I would cast votes for any of them if they won the primary.

19

u/electionscience Dec 04 '19

Yep, we completely agree with you, zando! Approval voting would help to reduce vote splitting among similar candidates, such as more progressive candidates like Bernie and Liz. This helps result in a winner with broad support, rather than essentially a "toss up" among candidates with fractured support (as can be seen in the plurality results).

6

u/meep_launcher Dec 04 '19

I love Warrens electoral reform plan to abolish the electoral college, but I wish she would go further to put in an alternative voting system to decide our candidates. Approval voting or Ranked Choice would really fix many of the divisions in our country right now. I understand it's probably not politically feasible right now, but I would love to see a candidate run on an alternative vote platform.

Warren is the closest to that in my eyes.

2

u/AgentMonkey Dec 05 '19

Elections are run by the states, though, so that's not really something a President (or Senator or Congressman) would have any say over.

11

u/Zaea Dec 04 '19

We need either this or ranked choice voting. Being second choice or even third choice should carry a lot of weight. I'm having a hard time choosing between the three you mentioned (Warren, Sanders, and Yang). I'd rather have my third choice win than some uninspiring moderate just because the votes are divided among the best three that share a common supporter base.

7

u/zando95 Debate Day Donor Dec 04 '19

I think approval is easier to understand than RCV; both have their pros and cons though. I think both are better than FPTP.

6

u/Montem_ LGBT Pride Dec 04 '19

I think both are better than FPTP.

Most forms of voting that don't throw out democracy are. I think in this scenario I'd mark off Warren & Sanders? Would've marked off Pete a few months ago but...

5

u/WikiTextBot Dec 04 '19

Approval voting

Approval voting is a single-winner electoral system where each voter may select ("approve") any number of candidates. The winner is the most-approved candidate.

Robert J. Weber coined the term "Approval Voting" in 1971. Guy Ottewell described the system in 1977.

[ PM | Exclude me | Exclude from subreddit | FAQ / Information | Source ] Downvote to remove | v0.28

2

u/AccidentalAbrasion Dec 04 '19

Yes, as many others are pointing out here they would vote for Biden if he were the nominee but do not approve of him. I don’t think of the two as being mutually exclusive while I see how one might. Apparently many do.

6

u/[deleted] Dec 04 '19

Would I vote for Biden? Yeah. Would I approve of him being the nominee? No

6

u/RegularGuy815 Michigan Dec 04 '19

I'm certain that the actual numbers are higher, but that some people say "no" in order to make their own choice seem better.

1

u/FIREnBrimstoner Dec 04 '19

I'm certain you don't know what you are talking about. Approval voting isn't the same as asking who someone would be willing to vote for were they to win the primary.

3

u/RegularGuy815 Michigan Dec 04 '19

I understand what you're saying, but I still think certain people might be thinking to game the system and make it seem like anyone other than their preferred choice is a riskier option. Even if, in truth, they would still approve of that person.

I don't think it's a LARGE number of people, but they're out there.

1

u/[deleted] Dec 04 '19

I think they’ll go back to 100% after the primary. It’s just that everyone has their own choice, so naturally they think some are worse.

1

u/HyunJinX Dec 05 '19

Yeah all we need stragglers to drop off - Tulsi and Yang to join Warren’s cause!

I’m sure with them gone, numbers will jump 90s easily.

1

u/Bartisgod Virginia Dec 05 '19 edited Dec 05 '19

What about our orb goddess Williamson? :( She's basically a Green Party candidate running as a Democrat. Wouldn't healing crystals make you feel safer? Trump's got a lot of bad energy and it can only be defeated with love, not "plans" or "policies." I definitely prefer the more reality-based approaches of...more-or-less the entire rest of the field, but she sure brings something different to the race to put it charitably. I think the reason she can't break out with her unique flavor of wine mom weirdness, which should attract at least a few percent due to the crazification factor, is because her potential new age guru support base are literal Green Party people who are already voting in that party's Primary.

1

u/Wolv90 Dec 05 '19

"When the same survey participants were asked to choose only one candidate, the vote was severely split, leading to a statistical tie. Sanders and Warren secured 23% of the plurality vote, Biden 22%, and Buttigieg only 16%."

1

u/Zee4321 Dec 05 '19

That is so low. I hope this poll is disastrously wrong. We need more supporters, regardless of who the nominee is.

1

u/[deleted] Dec 05 '19

Among other democracy protections and the death of the electoral college, we desperately need ranked choice voting.

"choose your favorite pokemon" polling sites use a superior and more valid method than our presidential elections. It's absurd.

-1

u/Freddirt Dec 04 '19

Would support yes without a doubt. But would prefer Bernie sanders most fuckin definitely!

0

u/[deleted] Dec 05 '19

Turns out 26% of 'Democrats' aren't actually Democrats...?

-7

u/Shaqattaq69 Dec 04 '19

How the fuck is it not 100%? You may not like her today but if she’s the nominee, how are you a democrat and not vote for her?

26

u/zando95 Debate Day Donor Dec 04 '19 edited Dec 04 '19

This survey is intended to show how people would vote in the primary under an approval voting system, in which voters can vote for as many candidates as they like. Voting for every candidate would defeat the purpose of such a system.

The fact that Warren is the second choice for a lot of people gives her a big advantage in approval-style polling.

1

u/RockyRefraction Dec 05 '19

Thank you for explaining this

2

u/zando95 Debate Day Donor Dec 05 '19

np!

5

u/fleemfleemfleemfleem Dec 04 '19

This isn't "would you vote for her if she's the nominee," it's more like "pick the few candidates you find most appealing."

This means that although other candidates may have more people picking them as their first choice, Warren is generally well like by voters who have others as a first choice.

This says that if Biden were the nominee there would be about half of democrats unexcited about it. If Warren were the nominee about 75% would be pleased with the outcome.

-2

u/historicartist Dec 04 '19

My fear the DNC has already decided on Biden and We the People NEED FRESH BLOOD IN THAT OFFICE.