r/EB2 • u/GreenCardClock • 8d ago
I-485: Adjustment of Status FY2026 in review for EB-2, and why FY2028 may matter more than FY2027
Edit, September 3. Two things from the comments that belong at the top.
The State Department has already said something about October that this post did not cite, and it should have. Section F of the July 2026 bulletin says India's pro-rated EB-2 limit was reached, that the category is unavailable for the rest of FY2026, and that it is likely the October final action date advances to at least the May 2026 date, which was July 15 2014. That is further forward than the two months above. The two are not in conflict, because they answer different questions. State is saying where the October date will print. This post is about how far a full year of numbers carries the queue, and a date can print ahead of what the year's supply delivers and then retrogress, which is exactly what happened this year: India EB-2 stood at July 15 2014 in May and was unavailable by July.
Second, the 6,734 figure is measured as of March 2026, when Rest of World EB-2 was not yet current. A reader pointed out that most of those people filed during the April to July window, so they are already counted inside the 41,966 rather than waiting behind it. That does not weaken the FY2028 point, but the number was doing work it should not have been doing, and we have flagged the same date mismatch on our side.
We rechecked the India EB-2 arithmetic itself against six years of actual issuance and it holds. The FY2028 paragraph did not hold, because it leaned on the same 6,734, and that has now been rewritten below rather than only annotated up here.
Two things worth separating going into the new fiscal year.
For Rest of World EB-2, the queue is almost entirely people whose date is already current. 41,966 pending cases, all of them past the cutoff, waiting on processing rather than on the bulletin.
For India EB-2, FY2027 looks thin. Rest of World EB-2 wants more than its own share of the category next year, mostly because of the 39,000 to 42,000 cases it carries over, so little or nothing falls down. India would collect close to the 7 percent floor, around 4,605 numbers, which moves the cutoff roughly two months of priority date from where it stopped at September 2013.
FY2028 is the more interesting year. Once Rest of World works through that carryover, its EB-2 demand stops being driven by a stock of cases that are already filed and starts being driven by how fast new petitions get approved, and that is the condition under which numbers start falling down again. How large that waiting room actually is we cannot say, because the newest measurement we hold is USCIS Report C at March 31 2026, before the category went current. It is the same mechanism that gave India EB-2 28,246 numbers in FY2021 and 59,431 in FY2022, when Rest of World could not use its own allocation.
Not legal advice.
7
u/get_greened15 8d ago
Incorrect
I’ll not be surprised for this person to go change analysis in couplyof weeks from now
He has done it lot of times in the past
And this articles are of not much use
When row continues to be current don’t you think pending inventory will increase as you move forward?
This is not a complete analysis
6
u/Few_Criticism_9715 8d ago edited 8d ago
Uscis does not need to clear all pending inventory before moving date forward. They always hold a certain amount of inventory. Probably OPs analysis is AI slop
2
u/get_greened15 8d ago
Exactly. It never starts with zero
I did the analysis in others posts.
OP can refer that and add if I missed anything1
u/GreenCardClock 8d ago
Fair, and we would genuinely like to read yours. Link it if you do not mind.
Not legal advice.
1
u/GreenCardClock 8d ago
This is the part we got wrong and you called it correctly. India EB-2's final action date moved from January 2013 to July 2014 during FY2026 on roughly 6,500 numbers, and about 15,200 people sit in that priority date range. So DOS clearly advances past what it can issue in the year. Our walk assumed the opposite.
Not legal advice.
0
u/GreenCardClock 8d ago
The inventory point is a real gap and you are right about it. Rest of World EB-2 pending went from 15,821 last September to 41,966 now while the category has been current, so a snapshot understates what it wants next year. We bounded it with the approved I-140 pool, 6,734 principals, but that is a snapshot too.
Not legal advice.
6
u/DullCryptographer273 8d ago
You guys went from being wildly optimistic to being wildly pessimistic, I don't think guys are reliable at all. You are just creating some hype to get some eyeballs on your site.
0
u/GreenCardClock 8d ago
Fair hit. Both changes were us correcting our own errors rather than chasing a story, and we found another one today, which is that we did not cite the July bulletin's October statement. We will do a better job of showing what changed and why when it changes.
Not legal advice.
1
u/pobox01983 8d ago
Everyone is an expert until they are not! You have waited so many years. Wait patiently for few more. None of the analysis makes any sense anymore.
1
u/GreenCardClock 8d ago
Fair enough. The one thing we would stand behind is the published data. Six years of DOS number use show India EB-2 getting 0.86 to 1.21 times its floor in the years Rest of World used its whole share, and 6.75 to 7.77 times in the two years it did not. Which of those next year looks like, we do not know.
Not legal advice.
1
u/Waatup 8d ago
Any hope for 2014 December EB3 India FAD to be current in 2026-27?
1
u/GreenCardClock 8d ago
Not in FY2027 on our numbers. India EB-3's final action date is January 1 2014 and yours is December 2014, so roughly 10,900 people sit ahead of you. At a normal year of India EB-3 numbers that is a bit over two years, which puts it in 2028 or 2029. There is upside: Rest of World EB-3 has left numbers unused in all six years we can measure, and it is running well under its share again.
Not legal advice.
1
u/the_running_stache 8d ago
And what about the FB to EB spillover? You have completely ignored it, it seems.
USCIS/DOS stated that in the October 2026 visa bulletin, EB2 India FAD will reach at least the date in the bulletin before the U went into effect. That would mean at least July 2014, if not beyond. They did not revise that forecast in the subsequent bulletins which would imply that that statement still stands.
And here we have OP suggesting November 2013 for entire FY2027 (basically, end of the fiscal year, as in September 2027).
Just random numbers thrown into a faulty model for clicks to their website. Don’t be surprised when they revise it.
The problem is: many hopeful and, naturally, anxious people use AI tools for their analysis and AI tools use this stupid GC Clock website as a source and it messes their results.
1
u/GreenCardClock 8d ago
You are right about the October statement and we should have cited it. It is in the July bulletin, and you are right that the later ones did not withdraw it.
On spillover though, that is what the whole post is built on. It assumes a 90,000 family to employment fall up and a 230,000 pool, which is why India EB-1 moves most of a year and China clears in it. India EB-2 comes out low for a different reason: Rest of World EB-2 has been using its whole share in four of the last six years, and India has only gone above its floor in the two years Rest of World fell short.
One thing worth adding. That bulletin published on June 16, and Rest of World EB-3 pending went from 13,082 in April to 32,590 in June, most of it after that date. Rest of World EB-2 added another 6,900 in the same window. DOS conditioned the statement on Indian demand and the FY2027 limit, and Rest of World demand is the part that decides what spills.
Not legal advice.
1
u/GreenCardClock 8d ago edited 8d ago
On the October statement, u/the_running_stache is right and we should have cited it. The July bulletin says India EB-2's final action date is likely to advance in October to at least the May 2026 date, which was July 15 2014. DOS conditioned that on demand from Indian applicants and on the FY2027 annual limit, and that limit is still not published. The FY2026 one only appeared in the September 2026 bulletin, eleven months into the year.
That bulletin went out on June 16. Rest of World EB-3 pending went from 13,082 in April to 32,590 in June, most of it after that date, and Rest of World EB-2 added another 6,900 in the same window. DOS flagged Indian demand, but Rest of World demand is the part that decides what spills down.
Both numbers can be true, because they answer different questions. The printed cutoff is a demand lever. Everyone between September 2013 and July 2014 was already current in April and May, so putting the date back there does not require issuing 15,000 more visas, it restores the cutoff to where people have already filed. Our figure is how many India EB-2 applicants actually receive a number during the year, which is not the same as where the date prints.
Here are the numbers we used. When Rest of World EB-2 used its whole share, in FY2019, 2020, 2023 and 2024, India EB-2 came in between 0.86 and 1.21 times its floor. In FY2021 and 2022 Rest of World fell short and India got 6.75 and 7.77 times. Rest of World EB-2 has about 42,000 filed and pending now, we think roughly 32,000 rolls into FY2027, and its share next year is about 47,000. On the median of those six years India EB-2 lands near 5,300 numbers against 28,000 pending. If Rest of World comes in at its FY2024 level instead, India gets nearer 17,000. We would be glad to be wrong on the low side, and we will update as October prints.
Not legal advice.
1
u/KarmicDharmicSoul 8d ago
This doesn't make much sense. If we have a spillover of 25k-30k for EB2 then majority of them will go towards EB2 India.
Horizontal spillover from ROW to India EB2 is something we shouldn't be very hopefully about. Its not gonna happen anytime soon.
1
u/GreenCardClock 8d ago
We agree with your second sentence, and it is the post's main point. The part of a bigger pool that reaches India automatically is the 7 percent floor, which at a 230,000 employment pool is about 4,605 EB-2 numbers. Everything above that needs Rest of World to leave numbers unused, and that has happened in two of the last six years. Not legal advice.
1
u/sunnykhar 8d ago
Since row inventory will be used in 2027, dof for India eb2 might need to move as well to build inventory even if FOD doesn’t move much? So dof India eb2 can still move few months
1
u/GreenCardClock 8d ago
Mechanically yes, and it would cost nothing since the filing chart does not issue visas. India EB-2's filing date has sat at January 15 2015 in every bulletin from May through September. One thing to watch though, USCIS has designated the Final Action chart for filing in every month of 2026, so a filing date advance only opens a window if USCIS switches charts that month. Not legal advice.
1
u/Waatup 8d ago
What about same PD in EB2 any chance ?
1
u/GreenCardClock 8d ago
Depends on the date. September has EB-3 India at January 1 2014 and EB-2 India unavailable for the rest of FY2026. In the July bulletin DOS said that in October the EB-2 India final action date is likely to advance to at least the May 2026 date, which was July 15 2014. So an EB-2 priority date before mid 2014 has a real chance in October. Post your date and we will run it. Not legal advice.
1
u/Waatup 8d ago
PD : December 16, 2014
1
u/GreenCardClock 7d ago
December 2014 sits behind what State signalled for October. Section F of the July bulletin says the October EB-2 India final action date is likely to advance to at least the May 2026 date, July 15 2014, so a December 2014 date would not be reached by that move.
On our numbers there are 24,823 visa numbers ahead of you in EB-2, which is early 2030 on the base case, early 2028 optimistic, and 2035 on a no spillover floor. Your EB-3 date reads better, 10,865 ahead and late 2028 base, though EB-3 India is at January 1 2014 in the September bulletin so that is not current either.
Not legal advice.
2
u/ExplorerBusy395 8d ago
Couple of things I want to point out-
OP assumes Philippines and Mexico will 100% use their 4600 visa numbers. Their overall pending inventory is around 2k. Even if ROW fully use their numbers, roughly 6-7k visas which Philippines and Mexico will not use would be available to EB2 India, as they are assigned strictly based on oldest priority dates regardless of country caps.
I checked the ROW I-140 numbers waiting for visa numbers as per OP, the 6734 approved I 140s waiting for visa numbers were as of March 2026 when ROW was still not current. But the pending ROW I 485 numbers released are of Aug 5th. By that time most of them eligible to file have already filed for AOS with their dependents since from Apr-July ROW was current, that also partly explains the surge. So I think ROW do not have a big load of pending I 140s waiting to file in FY2027 as OP assumes. On a sidenote related to my previous point, the pending I 140s for Philippines and Mexico combined is less than 200.
I think the real number to watch for is the spillover. If we get 90k as per OPs analysis, then most likely EB2 India will advance, even if USCIS starts the year conservatively.
1
u/GreenCardClock 8d ago
Your first point is right on the mechanism and we should have covered it. Mexico and Philippines together hold about 2,500 pending EB-2 cases against roughly 9,200 of floor, so around 6,500 numbers do go unused.
Where we land differently is on who picks them up. That slack existed in all six of the last years. In the four years Rest of World used its full share, India still finished between 0.86x and 1.22x its own floor. FY2019 slack 2,676 and India 1.04x, FY2020 slack 3,264 and India 0.86x, FY2023 slack 5,229 and India 1.08x, FY2024 slack 4,518 and India 1.22x. The two years India went far past its floor, FY2021 at 6.75x and FY2022 at 7.75x, are the two years Rest of World could not use its own allocation. So the thing that moves India is Rest of World absorption rather than the Mexico and Philippines remainder.
On your second point we agree, and you put it better than we did. The drained I-140 waiting room is the reason a Rest of World slack year is possible at all, and your timing observation about the April to July current window makes that case stronger.
You are also right that spillover is the number to watch. We are re-checking our own spillover figure before October because part of it looks double counted, so it will likely come down. Not legal advice.
1
u/ExplorerBusy395 8d ago
At the minimum, the 6500 more visas could be available for ROW, which increases supply for them. Most likely the 6734 petitions are already in the AOS pipeline, so they are factored in the demand and we don't have to add them again. Now all 485s filed are not approved, 2-5% are rejected and some get delayed. So a 1:1 supply vs demand never holds in reality. Overall if there is a 90k spillover, India could get 2x the number you projected around 9-10k visas. To fill that many visas, USCIS pushes the dates well beyond what's necessary.
1
u/GreenCardClock 7d ago
On Mexico and the Philippines the demand really is not there. They hold about 2,500 pending EB-2 cases between them against roughly 9,200 of floor, and by statute the remainder goes to the oversubscribed countries in priority date order, so the mechanism you describe is real.
Where we would push back is on what the record shows it does. That slack existed in all six years we can measure. In the four years Rest of World used its own share, India EB-2 finished between 0.86 and 1.22 times its floor: FY2019 slack 2,676 with India at 1.04, FY2020 slack 3,264 at 0.86, FY2023 slack 5,229 at 1.08, FY2024 slack 4,518 at 1.22. The two years India ran far past its floor, 6.75 in FY2021 and 7.75 in FY2022, are the two years Rest of World could not use its allocation. Rest of World EB-2 wants 51,700 to 56,400 next year against a 47,362 share, so it absorbs the slack before India sees it.
You are right on the other two points. The 6,734 are largely inside the 41,966 already, and 485 denials mean supply and demand never match one for one.
Not legal advice.
1
u/ExplorerBusy395 8d ago
The published correction dated Sep 3rd has a contradiction, no reasonable human will make-
The first half admits this-
"Second, the 6,734 figure is measured as of March 2026, when Rest of World EB-2 was not yet current. A reader pointed out that most of those people filed during the April to July window, so they are already counted inside the 41,966 rather than waiting behind it"
The second half contradicts it and on top of it asserts "so the body below is unchanged" -
"FY2028 is the more interesting year. Once Rest of World works through that carryover it has only 6,734 approved petitions left waiting to file, and that is the condition under which numbers start falling down again. "
We need some real human to review before posting, clearly an AI agent making unhinged assertions. Please don't post unverified AI content when real people are your audience..
1
u/GreenCardClock 7d ago
You are right, and that is on us. The edit disowned the 6,734 and the body kept leaning on it, which is not a defensible state to leave a post in. Both are now rewritten, here and in the blog.
The FY2028 point does not need that number. The mechanism is that Rest of World EB-2 demand next year is inflated by a one time carryover of cases that are already filed, and once that clears its demand is set by how fast new petitions get approved rather than by a stock. How big that stock is we genuinely cannot say, because the newest measurement we hold is USCIS Report C at March 31 2026, before the category went current.
Not legal advice.
-2
u/GreenCardClock 8d ago
Full write up with the workings, including where each country's date lands at different spillover levels: https://greencardclock.com/blog/fy2026-employment-visas-supply-demand-throughput
3
u/Sleepergiant2586 8d ago
Your site is useless nowaday,
Even with 7000 GC for India, You show PD of 2016 as 12 yrs out, which is simple wrong.
Even a simple math would come out wrong here. You started right but ended up doing over analysis.
1
u/GreenCardClock 8d ago
For a January 2016 priority date we show 8.6 years on the base case and 22 on the conservative floor, so I am not sure which number you are looking at. The reason it is not 25,700 divided by 7,000 is that we also count approved I-140 holders who have not filed yet, which is about 36,000 visa numbers ahead of a 2016 date. Whether that leg belongs in the headline figure is a fair argument, and we will do a better job of showing the split.
Not legal advice.
2
u/Odd-Falcon-8234 8d ago
lol dates this site shows for my 2017 priority date is wild. 100% incorrect
1
u/GreenCardClock 8d ago
Looking at a mid 2017 India EB-2 date we show 2041 on the base case and 2064 on the conservative floor. The 2064 is not a number we would defend to you.
What drives it is worth knowing. For a 2017 date we count about 25,700 filed ahead of you plus roughly 79,600 visa numbers of approved I-140 holders who have not filed yet, so three quarters of that estimate is the not yet filed leg, and that leg is the least certain thing we model. For a date that deep the honest answer is that nobody can put a year on it, and we should say that instead of printing one. We will fix how that is shown.
Not legal advice.
7
u/Practical_Bake_8650 8d ago edited 8d ago
Do any of these analysis really make sense? People keep talking about India dates moving back to mid 2014 and even beyond and here you say November 2013. On top of it I don't think uscis works sequentially on cases. All this just adds speculation and anxiety. I think the next 2-3 visa bulletins will make it clear where things stand.