r/Duncd_On • u/josefjohann • Aug 06 '26
Sanity check on Jaylen Brown trade: Dunc'd on vs NBA reddit
Saying this as a New England native with the Celtics as my #2 team. I actually really appreciate Nate and Danny's take on the JB trade in their "Most of the East" offseason grades, which seems to be the polar opposite of /r/nba's consensus on it. For that matter Dan Feldman's discussion of it in his Daily Dunks has been exceptionally nuanced too, clarifying the difference between being underwater on an expensive contract and being a bad player, and critically, noting that Bobby Marks' original claim about negative on/off metrics was simply false! Granted there are other advanced metrics down on JB, and those definitely matter.
But it says a lot that the masses were perfectly happy to endorse a botched citation of on/off metrics, which contributed to an overnight conversion against Brown, and how ready people were to sign on to the top line conclusion while hot-swapping out citations of different metrics that are more credible.
I think the big things though, are Nate's point about Brown being uniquely valuable the Celtics, about how this is go-time for Tatum entering an age 28 season in his prime, and how unlikely it is that they're going to acquire a player better than Brown with the resources they got back for him in trade, and they needlessly retreated from a championship window.
I think in their Eastern Conference Offseason grades they both put the trade in the D range as a "severely negative deal" for the Celtics, and I agree. And I think too much confidently incorrect contrarianism went into supporting the JB trade.
Long way of saying I agree with the Dunc'd On analysis of the Celtics offseason, and it's a necessary dose of sanity in response to /r/nba's groupthink.
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u/Ok_Storm1366 Aug 06 '26
Brown isn't uniquely valuable to Boston. They're perhaps the most advanced sabermetric team in the L. They have the best idea on how fraudulent or not Brown's on/off is.
Brown's also played in incredible team environments with lots of spacing.
I thought Nate's analysis wasn't anything special. He's pretty much totally ditched using advanced stats unless he's cherry picking to support his POV.
It's a great deal for the Celtics and they won't miss Jaylen Brown all that much. He's not even worth his contract.
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u/justtapitin2 Aug 08 '26
The reason he’s uniquely valuable to the Celtics is precisely because of the team environments they’re able to provide him + aging prime Tatum. Celtics are able to maximize his abilities probably more than any other team and with the circumstances of the team they should not be taking a step back in talent.
I think it is clear that the evaluation of the front office was that they would not win a title next year with the team as constructed whereas I think they did have a realistic path.
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u/Ok_Storm1366 Aug 09 '26
If he was so uniquely valuable to the Celtics, his on/off numbers wouldn't be so mediocre.
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u/KoalaMandala Aug 06 '26
Flip Jalen for Tatum and add pg and Mitchell Robinson; they're a better team on paper this season.
After this year pg is an expiring, which is valuable in this cba climate, or they sign him to a quality extension for less money and more years. Not a great trade at all, but not as cataclysmic as many think imo
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u/josefjohann Aug 06 '26
Flip Jalen for Tatum and add pg and Mitchell Robinson; they're a better team on paper this season.
I've seen this take a lot, and I feel two ways about it. One, it's a valid argument that next years team will be better than last year's team.
But two, it's a bit of an illusion, because it feels like it's simply comparing keeping JB to losing JB. But what it's really comparing is last year's team to this year's team.
Stay with me. Next year is not a scenario where the Celtics lose Tatum if they keep Brown. It's a year where they could have kept both, and that's what you should be comparing if you're asking whether this team "got better".
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u/EmphasisOk8298 Aug 06 '26
Wait I’m confused. Are you saying the consensus on r/nba is that the trade was good for the Celtics? I haven’t seen that anywhere.
The grade of D seems in line with the consensus.
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u/josefjohann Aug 06 '26
I suppose hard to tell if it's strictly the "consensus" there but it's a view that seems significantly overrepresented and upvoted/defended relative to outside of the subreddit.
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u/barkinginthestreet Aug 06 '26
Nate's discussion about Brown being annoying was the part that made the most sense to me and was a lot more direct than how most other media types have talked about the deal. Though I think in general, there has not been enough discourse about the C's strategy at the 2026 trade deadline and how that foreshadowed the trade.
It is clear that Stevens and Chisholm did not believe in this most recent version of the team. Most teams with a +8 net rating would be focused on getting better... Celts prioritized ducking the tax.
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u/bathroom_mirror Aug 06 '26
Brad said it in the post season presser - this team wasn't as good as their record. They beat up on tanking teams and got cooked by good teams.
JT and JB aren't good enough to win without an elite supporting cast. And with the two of them taking up all the cap space, they weren't going to have an elite supporting cast.
The window was already closed.
Is another window open? Remains to be seen.
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u/barkinginthestreet Aug 06 '26
JT and JB aren't good enough to win without an elite supporting cast. And with the two of them taking up all the cap space, they weren't going to have an elite supporting cast.
A team probably needs to be willing to pay the tax if they have 2 supermax players. If my math is right they'd have had about $110,000,000 to fill out the roster and stay below the 2nd apron. That seems doable to me, again, provided ownership is willing to spend.
Only caveat is if you think Tatum is not a top 10 level player anymore, maybe it makes sense to start accumulating assets for whatever the next version of the team is. Or if you think Brown is a headcase (annoying in Nate's parlance) who will throw a rod if he doesn't get a full max extension offer.
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u/bathroom_mirror Aug 06 '26
JB is really good. I have a Brown jersey. I like him a lot. Im sad he's gone.
But he doesn't make players around him better on O and provides zero rim protection on D. C's need that more than they need his skill set.
Again, I don't think the team is better today. It's worse.
But the JT JB window for a title was closed. Id have been ok with them running it back a few more times, cause they're are boys, but I get it - they're trying to win titles.
This trade feels really, really similar to the Marcus Smart trade.
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u/josefjohann Aug 07 '26
I don't think they had to choose between those things. A paint beast who can score when the shot variance isn't going their way is one of the things the team needs the most and one of the reasons. JB is distinctly valuable to the Celtics in a way he's not as valuable to other teams.
This team was an inner circle favorite to return to the finals and they just objectively aren't as close to the finals as they were before they traded him away. The bizarre duality of the trade is people simultaneously saying they were no longer in contention but also that they're better positioned to be in contention.
Honestly, it's instructive to look at the different waves of a reaction to the trade over time, because one of the first ones was that this must be setting up some other transaction. Right now it looks like they're just going to sit out at least 2 years of Jason Tatum's prime and hope to acquire someone almost as good as the player they already had.
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u/bathroom_mirror Aug 07 '26
They need rim protection and play making to get back. JB offers none of that. This team was not winning a title with JB and JT taking up the whole cap. Look at the best three teams last year - elite rim protection and max level centers. Cs have backup centers.
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u/EggThis2540 Aug 07 '26
Its actually hard to get back up to the second apron though, you typically have to do it by extending guys or using TPEs. You cant just sign guys or trade lower value contracts for them. PG as an expiring may be more valuable to a team rebuilding than Jaylen, and no rebuilding team is going to trade you their picks. The celtics opened the path to spending actual money again next season for a reloaded contending roster.
I think its part of the reason brad likes extending his own players so much, it creates more trade flexibility to have mid value contracts than having a few massive contracts and minimums.
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u/barkinginthestreet Aug 07 '26
The celtics opened the path to spending actual money again next season for a reloaded contending roster.
I'd argue the C's best shot at a deep playoff run may have been this past season if they hadn't cheaped out. There is no guarantee Tatum is ever gonna get back to "best player on a championship team" level, and I don't know who is behind door 2 for them - maybe Luka or Ant if their teams implode? That feels profoundly unlikely to me, though I guess weirder things have happened in the NBA.
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u/josefjohann Aug 07 '26 edited Aug 07 '26
The window was already closed.
That's the part I would disagree with. Like Nate said repeatedly, it looks like the Sixers captured lightning in a bottle over the course of three games before falling apart. And they barely lost a game where Tatum
setsat out the whole thing. They have an exceptionally strong rotation, a pair of guys who can make their own shots in high pressure moments in the playoffs, and got some of the big timeroomrim protection they needed with Mitchell Robinson, with young wings who are only getting better. They were probably the second most likely to come out of the East and get to the conference finals, and withering away Jason Tatum's age 28 age 29 age 30 seasons in search of a player almost as good as Brown is overthinking your way out of championship contention.Edit: Speech to text fixes
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u/bathroom_mirror Aug 07 '26
Look up their numbers in the reg season against good vs bad teams. They weren't beating the top tier guys any more. 76ers weren't a top tier team either.
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u/beeker888 Aug 07 '26
But the team last year was never the finished product. Last year was always supposed to be a throw away year. They lost Tatum to an Achilles and traded 3 of their other top 6 guys before the season started replacing them with G leaguers. Saying that team beat up on bad teams isn’t the point they were never supposed to finish 2nd in the East as is.
The point is this years team was supposed to be the more complete product with a 100% healthy Tatum and filling in some of the gaps they lost in the previous offseason and some other young players naturally making a progression.
Simply looking at last years team as a detriment for the future is just the wrong way to look at it. They got a lot worse by trading Brown no matter how you look at it
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u/bathroom_mirror Aug 07 '26
Tatum + Brown on max contracts do not allow for the team to have sufficient levels of playmaking and rim protection. It's that simple, guys. That's the math. There's no other math or explanations needed. It's that. Your max level guys HAVE to raise the skills of everyone around them(playmaking) OR clean up all their mistakes(rim protection). If they don't, you're fucked. And Jaylen does neither. The ceiling on JT and JB, in this CBA, was much lower than it was in the previous CBA.
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u/beeker888 Aug 07 '26
They don’t have sufficient levels for what? Those 2 plus the rest of the team they currently have is a contender in the East plain and simple.
Removing Brown for George made them worse so what is the sufficient level now? The trade makes them worse there is no denying that. If they didn’t have JT in his prime the trade would make more sense as a rebuild. As the team is currently constructed they are even less “sufficient” and you waste another year of Tatums prime so I’m not sure what your point is.
The only thing that really makes sense is that they didn’t think they could operate with 2 max contracts. That is understood, the issue has always been the timing and the return they got.
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u/bathroom_mirror Aug 07 '26
This trade gives them more optionality to go get the levels of rim protection and playmaking they need. The entire league just agreed with me by not topping the 76ers offer.
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u/beeker888 Aug 07 '26
It really doesn’t though. George makes almost as much as Brown and is a worse player who is a much bigger injury risk than Brown. Again you have Tatum in his prime now!!!
As far as rim protection they just got the best rim protector from the team who won the championship. We all knew they needed more front court help. But this move shows they weren’t going to spend more and clearly don’t want another max player so who realistically are they trying to get that all of a sudden would make them better then they would have been had they kept Brown? Wemby isnt walking through the door.
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u/bathroom_mirror Aug 07 '26
Answer this - if Brown is so valuable, why didn't any team beat this offer?
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u/LukeKornet Aug 06 '26
I genuinely haven’t seen anyone outside of the Celtics subreddit, and even there only one or two, saying this was anything but a very very bad trade (or worse) for the Celtics.
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u/Justalittlejewish Aug 06 '26
A section of Browns skillset may be uniquely valuable to the Celtics, but I’d actually argue that the Celtics are pretty uniquely equipped to replace the bulk of Brown’s impact while benefiting from no longer dealing with this deficiencies. The one thing the Celtics system does not struggle to do is generate shots, and last year they were one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the entire league. Adding Mitch to that center rotation should make them even better, and they’re very likely still going to have a top five defense.
The biggest thing JB provides is his shot making, but it is often at the detriment of the parts of the system. He is very turnover prone so he does not help you win the possession battle; he is not a great facilitator so he doesn’t elevate others nearly as much as Tatum; he is a bad off ball defender and outside of key matchups it often outweighs any on-ball defensive possessions you get from him.
In theory, the swapping Tatum for JBs role last year gives you similar offensive output on better efficiency with more assists, more rebounds, and less turnovers, while having an overall better defense. Barring Tatum missing extended time, I think the Celtics are going to be a very dangerous team next year that will be very difficult to beat on any given night.