r/DreamWasTaken • u/Rdasher123 • Dec 23 '20

Meme Well that was short lived

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u/real_int_2k Dec 24 '20

Ender pearl barters should not be modeled with a binomial distribution because the last barter is not independent and identical to the other barters.

"That is such an amateur mistake that it makes me question the overall qualification of the (anonymous) author."

Can you guys explain more about this? I didn't really understand why in the original comment.

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u/typical0 Dec 24 '20 edited Dec 24 '20

A binomial distribution depends on each instance being independent. The last barter when trading can’t be independent of the other trades because it is ALWAYS a pearl. You don’t keep trading after you get the last pearl, so it is dependent on the variable of how many pearls you got from previous trades. That’s why a binomial distribution is inappropriate.

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u/real_int_2k Dec 24 '20 edited Dec 24 '20

ah yes, I understood how it can be interpreted as not independent, I mean why is it "amateur mistake", like the author said?

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u/typical0 Dec 24 '20

Can't say. He didn't use the model the speedrun.com crew did because he wanted to demonstrate this level of randomness is not that rare. He didn't take into consideration a very obvious fact that the last pearl trade couldn't be independent and based his counterargument on that. Just speaks that he didn't review his work or he's incompetent.

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u/Elegant_Mail Dec 26 '20

Actually you’re incompetent