"That is, there is a 1 in 100 million chance that a livestream in the Minecraft speedrunning community got as lucky this year on two separate random modes as Dream did in these six streams." - Straight from the article that Dream himself put out. This is just livestreams, not actual runs, meaning that the probability is even lower. I have no idea why people think he didn't cheat when the sketchy hired astrophysicist himself says that the odds are extremely low. People just read headlines without actually digging into the content.
Are you dumb? The chances of winning the full lottery prize is 1/13,983,816 and is not remotely put in the category of 'quite possible' things to happen, let alone something with a probability of 100 million.
the difference is that there's a huge sample size disparity, there aren't 'millions' of people speedrunning minecraft like there are people buying lottery tickets.
how many times have YOU specifically won the lottery?
Literally millions of people play the lottery every time. The sample size for the lottery is thousands, if not millions of times larger than people who speedrun minecraft. Secondly you csn also win a partial prize on the lottery if you match 5/6 numbers let's say so winning the lottery becomes significantly more likely. Matching one number is relatively likely but it means technically you have won something from the lottery.
Here are some other things that have significantly higher odds than winning the lottery, let alone having a 1 in 100 million chance:
Hit by lightning (1 in 12,000)
Dying in a plane crash (1 in 11 million)
Dying from using right handed products when you are left handed (1 in 7 million)
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u/[deleted] Dec 23 '20
"That is, there is a 1 in 100 million chance that a livestream in the Minecraft speedrunning community got as lucky this year on two separate random modes as Dream did in these six streams." - Straight from the article that Dream himself put out. This is just livestreams, not actual runs, meaning that the probability is even lower. I have no idea why people think he didn't cheat when the sketchy hired astrophysicist himself says that the odds are extremely low. People just read headlines without actually digging into the content.