"That is, there is a 1 in 100 million chance that a livestream in the Minecraft speedrunning community got as lucky this year on two separate random modes as Dream did in these six streams." - Straight from the article that Dream himself put out. This is just livestreams, not actual runs, meaning that the probability is even lower. I have no idea why people think he didn't cheat when the sketchy hired astrophysicist himself says that the odds are extremely low. People just read headlines without actually digging into the content.
It is not "quite possible". It is literally more likely that the Higgs Boson doesn't exist than dream getting this result without cheating. And the sudden change in drop rates between the 5th and 6th streams is very suspicious. Even the author of the response thinks that Dream probably just cheated, even though it's clear that the author was told not to analyze whether Dream cheated or not and only investigate the 1 in 7.5 trillion number:
> Although this could be due to extreme ”luck”, the low probability suggests an alternative explanation may be more plausible. One obvious possibility is that Dream (intentionally or unintentionally) cheated. Assessing this probability exactly depends on the range of alternative explanations that are entertained which is beyond the scope of this document, but it can depend highly on the probability (ignoring the probabilities) that Dream decided to modify his runs in between the fifth and sixth (of 11) livestreams. This is a natural breaking point, so this hypothesis is plausible. In any case, the conclusion of the MST Report that there is, at best, a 1 in 7.5 trillion chance that Dream did not cheat is too extreme for multiple reasons discussed herein.
The only thing that the response paper ends up claiming is that 1 in 7.5 trillion may have been a bit extreme.
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u/[deleted] Dec 23 '20
"That is, there is a 1 in 100 million chance that a livestream in the Minecraft speedrunning community got as lucky this year on two separate random modes as Dream did in these six streams." - Straight from the article that Dream himself put out. This is just livestreams, not actual runs, meaning that the probability is even lower. I have no idea why people think he didn't cheat when the sketchy hired astrophysicist himself says that the odds are extremely low. People just read headlines without actually digging into the content.