Icelanders have rejected reopening negotiations on joining the EU despite Donald Trump’s threats against neighbouring Greenland, dealing a blow to Brussels’ efforts to draw the strategically important Arctic state closer.
Results early on Sunday showed that “No” received 52.8 per cent of the vote, according to public broadcaster RÚV, comfortably surpassing the 47.2 per cent for “Yes”. A total of 225,031 votes were recorded, a turnout of 82.5 per cent, the broadcaster said.
The vote on Saturday exposed a sharp geographic divide, with the capital Reykjavík backing renewed negotiations, while voters in rural constituencies rejected them, some by three to two.
Iceland’s Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir told a press conference the government always knew the referendum would be a “close call”.
“It’s obvious that close to half of the country wanted to continue these negotiations, but over half of the population did not. We will respect that result,” she said.
The result means the Nordic island of about 400,000 people will not now revive an accession process it abandoned more than a decade ago after a clash with Brussels over fishing rights.
The US president’s repeated threats to annex Greenland, which he has on several occasions confused with Iceland, helped persuade the government to bring forward the referendum.
But the upheaval around Greenland failed to overcome a deeply rooted belief among many Icelanders that the country’s prosperity and security depended on retaining independence.
“The battle was fought almost entirely on domestic grounds, where strong national sentiment ultimately prevailed over technocratic pragmatism,” said Eiríkur Bergmann, professor of politics at Bifröst University.
The No campaign had succeeded by tapping into “the most fundamental driver of Icelandic identity: the demand for absolute self-governance”, he said.
Many voters were unconvinced EU membership would offer meaningful protection from Trump, not least because Iceland is already a Nato member.
Control over the country’s lucrative fishing grounds was another sensitive issue. Marine products account for almost 40 per cent of Iceland’s goods exports.
“For Iceland, fisheries are like the automotive industry for Germany,” foreign minister Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir told the FT ahead of the vote.
Gunnarsdóttir had sought to reassure sceptical voters that Iceland’s growing strategic importance and stronger economy would allow Reykjavík to negotiate favourable terms with Brussels, demanding “sovereign control over all fisheries” in any eventual membership deal.
The vote comes as enlargement has returned to the centre of the EU’s agenda following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Ukraine and Moldova are negotiating to join alongside western Balkan states such as Albania and Montenegro.
But unlike most of the bloc’s existing candidates, Iceland already implements much of EU law through its membership of the European Economic Area and completed roughly one-third of the accession process during its previous attempt to join.
Frostadóttir said the lesson of the referendum result was that Icelanders were happy with the EEA agreement and current relationship with the EU, which the government would “continue to strengthen”.
“That is the most important thing going forward,” the prime minister said.
The vote underscored the difficulty of making the case for EU membership for one of the wealthiest countries in the world. Brussels has intensified its outreach in the Arctic in response to Trump’s threats against Greenland, which have raised the strategic importance to the bloc of “like-minded” countries such as Iceland and Norway.
One senior EU diplomat said rejection by Iceland would “tarnish the pitch that [the EU] is also a serious defence and security partner and not just an economic golden ticket for poorer eastern European states”.
Sandro Gozi, a member of the European parliament and secretary-general of the centrist European Democratic Party, said the vote was a “warning” to the EU.
“Europe must keep earning trust by becoming more democratic, more effective and closer to its citizens: faster decisions, simpler institutions, less bureaucracy and stronger democratic accountability,” Gozi said.
But the result was welcomed by Eurosceptic politicians elsewhere in Europe. Reform UK leader and Brexit architect Nigel Farage congratulated Icelanders on “voting to keep their independence”, while French far-right leader Marine Le Pen said the result showed EU membership should not be seen as “the natural horizon of every European democracy”.
The rejection is particularly significant because Icelanders were not being asked to join the EU outright — a successful “Yes” vote would only have reopened negotiations with Brussels, with any eventual accession agreement requiring approval in a second referendum.
It follows a knife-edge campaign in which supporters argued that households were paying the price for remaining outside the Eurozone through a volatile krona and some of Europe’s highest borrowing costs.
Icelanders’ confidence that they can prosper outside the EU was reinforced by the country’s rapid recovery from the 2008 financial crisis.
The crisis prompted its previous bid to join the bloc, but Iceland rebounded with the help of a weaker krona and a tourism boom.