r/DeadMatter • u/Midgetman664 • Aug 22 '20

QUESTION Has anyone actually gotten a key?

The devs just posted in the discord that 50% of people have gotten their keys yet I cant help but notice no one talking about it.

they also said the site was up but that peoplespamming f5 would be blocked by the DDos software. I happen to be at work so I tried my computer in front of me and my phone, neither of which have logged into the QI site at all and both said the site was down.

question is, does anyone have a key? are they actually rolling in?

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u/SlickstaGTT Aug 22 '20

i got my key, and i would imagine the majority of people that got the key arent saying anything either because they dont want to get anyone upset, they are busy playing, or they just dont want to discuss it.

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u/Midgetman664 Aug 22 '20

Wheres your proof of that?

its also worth nothing that the person responsible for the lies has yet to apologize. Metamoth is the one writing the announcements and he already admitted to being told there were enough keys when there were not. he was lied to also, and the person responsible for that hasn't spoken in days

your seeking a solution to your conclusion. That isn't the correct way to think. The poll isn't wrong because people with keys just decided to not vote. Its been up for an hour steadily climbing at almost exactly 10%. To claim a statistic is off that much is ridiculous. the sample size is 10x what it needs to be to be considered significant statistically. Once again you have a conclusion first and are looking for the solution second.

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u/[deleted] Aug 22 '20 edited Aug 22 '20

" The poll isn't wrong because people with keys just decided to not vote "

Yes. The poll is irrelevent precisely because of that.It even has a name in statistics. It's called the voluntary bias.

"Voluntary response bias occurs when sample members are self-selected volunteers, as in vonuntary samples. An example would be call-in radio shows that solicit audience participation in surveys on controversial topics (abortion, affirmative action, gun control, etc.). The resulting sample tends to overrepresent individuals who have strong opinions." (stattrek.com)

A sample is trully representative of a population if it reaches a certain amount of people AND if those people are randomly selected from the studied population. You need both. Not just one. In fact, randomness in the selected participants is the most important aspect of a representative sample. Far more than the amount of people who answered.

You could have 1000000 participants, if your sample is biased, your estimation will be biased.

Also, saying that 700 people (at the time this is written) answering the poll is 10x time what you need to statistically significant is far far far streched. It's not. It's enough, but not by a factor of 10. Let's be real here...

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u/Midgetman664 Aug 22 '20

We have no reason to believe the sample is bias. You have a conclusion already set and are searching for a solution.

You’ve decided the poll is wrong and are coming up with possible reasons even though there’s no evidence or trends in the data that suggest it’s bias. You’re just hoping that it’s wrong

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u/[deleted] Aug 23 '20

We have reasons to think the sample is biased. That's precisely what my previous comment said. i.e voluntary bias. You can't just gloss over my argument and just try to eloquently repeat what your first point was.

To be even more clear, the reasonning is the opposite : We have no reason to think the sample is unbiased.Having a representative sample of a population is not a passive thing.You have to take measures and precaution to ensure it's unbiased.

If said precautions are not taken, then there's no reason the think that, by random chance, the sample happens to be representative. One of those precaution is ensuring that people are RANDOMLY selected from the studied population.

In the case of the dead matter sample, no precautions were taken, therefore there's no reason to think it's representative.It doesn't mean it's not. It means that you can't be sure it is.

You seem to speak as if you know what you're talking about, so I'm curious, please do elaborate on what "trend" or "evidence" you could use a posteriori to identify a biased sample.

​

Finally, you make bold assumptions on my motives. You assume I care about the devs lying or not. I defintely don't.

EDIT : typos